342
AXNT20 KNHC 011756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Nov 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 66W south of 22N, moving
westward around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 13N to 20N between 63W and 71W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N18W and continues
to near 10N20W. The ITCZ then is analyzed from 10N20W to 04N51W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 15N
between 23W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Ridging dominates the basin with light to gentle winds under
clear skies. Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, winds will veer to the SE and S over the
western Gulf today ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW Gulf tonight into Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate
to locally rough seas are expected in the wake of the front
forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico by
Sun morning, and from central Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche by Mon morning, then SE of the basin by Tue morning.
Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into
midweek across the western Gulf, but linger somewhat in the
eastern Gulf due to a tight pressure gradient.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave over the
eastern Caribbean.

A surface trough is analyzed from SE Cuba to offshore southern
Nicaragua. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
found along the trough and over the SW Caribbean. Earlier ASCAT
data depicted moderate to fresh trades prevailing across areas E
of 80W with gentle to moderate NE winds occurring across areas W
of 80W. Seas are 4-6 ft across the central and E Caribbean, with
2-5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from SE Cuba to the
SW Caribbean near 10N81W will linger through tonight with moderate
to locally fresh N to NE winds just W of it. Fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds are in the wake of a tropical wave moving
across the region. These winds will expand to the central
Caribbean tonight as the wave continues to move westward and a
ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. Moderate to locally rough seas
will be associated with the wave. By early next week, mainly
moderate to locally fresh trade winds will dominate the east and
central Caribbean. Meanwhile, a cold front may push into the NW
Caribbean by early Tue while the above mentioned tropical wave may
reach the western Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N56W to the SE Bahamas.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 22N to 26N between 69W
and 74W. Another cold front is analyzed across the eastern
Atlantic from 31N26W to 23N45W. A pre-frontal trough is also
analyzed from 30N24.5W to 22N38W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen N of 23N between 21W and 31W. Recent
scatterometer and altimeter data indicated fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas following the front. Elsewhere across the
Atlantic, the gradient between a 1021 mb high near 26N53W and
lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas across most areas S of 20N. Areas north
of 20N and away from the fronts are seeing gentle to moderate
trades and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from
31N55W to the SE Bahamas will weaken to a remnant trough through
the weekend. Rough seas N of 29N and E of 67W will continue to
subside through tonight. Another cold front may impact the region
early next week, slowly shifting SE while weakening into midweek.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may follow the front
initially. Meanwhile, fresh winds and locally rough seas will
prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Sun as a
tropical wave moves through the E Caribbean with building high
pressure to the NE.

$$

Adams