062
AXNT20 KNHC 012015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Nov 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 16N16W, and continues southwestward to 11.5N26W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to
07N43W and to 11N59W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 14W and 30W, and
within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper-level trough is supporting scattered to numerous
convection north of 24N and east of 88W. This activity is capable
of producing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Elsewhere,
fresh to strong east winds are over the NE Gulf along with seas of
4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle NE winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the eastern U.S. and lower pressure south of the area will
maintain fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas through the NE Gulf
through Mon night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue,
then move slowly E across the basin through Thu, as high pressure
builds in behind it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevails across
the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate
seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue through
Mon. The pressure gradient will relax starting Mon night as broad
low pressure forms north of the area, leading to overall weaker
winds and diminishing seas for the remainder of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N44W southwestward to 27N53W
becomes stationary to 24N67W, and continues as a trough to the
Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is along this front. A second cold front extends from
31N56W to 29N72W. An upper level trough is generating numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection N of 25N and W of 75W.
Fresh to strong NE winds, and rough seas to 9 ft cover the waters
N of 27N and W of 71W. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas
of 507 ft are elsewhere N of the fronts. Farther east, a cold
front extends from 31N16W to 22N26W. Moderate to fresh winds, and
rough seas to 9 ft, prevail N of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, widespread fresh to strong NE to E
winds and rough seas N of 24N and W of 60W will prevail. Broad
low pressure may gradually develop along the western edge of the
stationary front, and this may cause the strong winds and rough
seas to spread eastward toward mid- week, impacting waters mainly
N of 28N. The next cold front is forecast to move off Florida late
Thu night.

$$
AL