549
AXNT20 KNHC 311515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1505 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 07N to 12N between 35W and 43W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 10N to 15N between 60W and 66W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed south of 20N and west of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Western Sahara near 26N15W and dives southward to a 1009 mb low
pres near 17N20W and then continues southwestward to 09N42W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 13N and east
of 21W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends into the
Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to
locally moderate seas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-
level trough north of the area is producing a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, while generally
dry conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to
moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be
fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula
nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend and into
next week as an upper-level trough drops southward toward the
Gulf states as a very moist and unstable airmass prevails over
region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the basin forces strong to locally
near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough to locally very
rough seas across much of the central Caribbean. The strongest
winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass showed peak winds to 33 kt. An
altimeter pass from a few hours ago indicated seas up to 16 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in
the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba.

Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section,
an upper-level trough over the NE Caribbean generates scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the nearby islands
and coastal waters. Diurnal heating is likely to support some
thunderstorm activity developing over parts of Cuba and Hispaniola
later this afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface trough just east of the
Lesser Antilles will aid in the formation of showers and
thunderstorms later today and tomorrow, especially across the
Leeward Islands.

For the forecast, the overnight gale-force winds off Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela have diminished to near gale-force winds,
however, very rough seas remain offshore of Colombia. These seas
will slowly subside through Sat. Elsewhere across the central
Caribbean, fresh to strong trades will begin to diminish in
coverage beginning and through the weekend. Fresh trades elsewhere
south S of about 18N will also diminish in coverage through the
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight, then to fresh speeds for the remainder of the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough north of the SW North Atlantic is producing
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and west
of 69W. Similar upper-level dynamics also support a few showers in
the north-central Atlantic and north of Puerto Rico.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge situated over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the frontal
boundary draped across the SE US and into the western Atlantic
sustain moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas north of 26N
and west of 60W. In the remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent. The exception is
south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W, where moderate to
fresh SW winds and moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from
near 30N55W to the Straits of Florida will lift N to near 28N by
Sun and change little into early next week. The gradient between
the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters
will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds along with
scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 26N and west of 70W
through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night through the period.

$$
Delgado