798
AXNT20 KNHC 201011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N26W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 08N52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection convection prevails along the monsoon
trough from 04N to 14N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure centered just offshore Florida continues to dominate
Gulf weather, providing moderate or weaker SE winds and seas
generally of 2 to 4 ft. The highest winds and seas are offshore
TX and far NE Mexico, east of developing low pressure. The calmest
conditions are offshore Florida.

For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas will occur over the basin through the weekend as
high pressure prevails over the southeastern U.S. Locally fresh NE
winds will pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon
and evening. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds may
develop over the northwestern Gulf for the start of next week as
low pressure strengthens in the south- central U.S.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough along 70W is inducing scattered moderate
convection just south of Hispaniola. The eastern extension of the
East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection along the Caribbean coast of Panama S
of 11N. Fresh NE trades are present over much of the central and
western basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the east. Moderate
seas prevail. Locally strong winds and rough seas are present
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds
are expected over the Caribbean into the start of next week as a
moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the
north and low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong
winds and rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia starting this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1016 mb low near 32N55W to
28N68W. Scattered moderate convection is along this front N of 28N
between 58W and 65W. Extending south from the low is a surface
trough that continues to 23N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted along this trough N of 25N between 51W
and 55W. In the far east Atlantic, a cold front stretches from
31N19W to 27N25W to 29N34W. Fresh NE winds and rough seas follow
this cold front. Elsewhere, winds and seas are mainly moderate or
less across the entire basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE
winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and into the
Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the
southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected elsewhere into the weekend. Increasing SW winds
and building seas may occur offshore of northern Florida this
weekend ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern U.S.

$$
Konarik