Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
052 AXNT20 KNHC 181100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Aug 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Category 4 Hurricane Erin is centered near 22.8N 70.2W at 18/0900 UTC or 90 nm NNE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are around 45 ft or 15 meters near the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 17N to 26N between 66W and 74W. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the week. Some additional strengthening is expected today. Even though some weakening is forecast beginning tonight, Erin will remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 27W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 16N between 25W and 33W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 50W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 15N between 50W and 56W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 82W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at the time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, then curves SW across 09N27W to 12N43W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 13W and 19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the SE CONUS extends into the Gulf where is anchored by a 1015 mb high near 28N93W. A weak pressure gradient across the region continue to support light to gentle variable winds basin-wide along with slight seas. Otherwise, a surface trough, remnants of a dissipating stationary front, is supporting scattered showers over the NE Gulf. A surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche is supporting similar shower activity in the SW Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift across the northwestern Gulf through Wed night and continue to support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas. Then, the Atlantic high pressure will build westward along 23N on Thu, as Hurricane Erin moves north of Bermuda. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section on Hurricane Erin. Major Hurricane Erin is near 22.8N 70.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Mostly fresh S to SE winds and seasse of 3 to 6 ft are dominating the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea W of 70W. For the forecast, Erin will move to 23.6N 71.2W this afternoon, 25.0N 72.2W Tue morning, 26.6N 72.9W Tue afternoon, 28.6N 73.4W Wed morning, 30.7N 73.4W Wed afternoon, and 32.9N 72.2W Thu morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near 37.2N 66.1W early Fri. Fresh S to SW winds occurring over the NE and N-central Caribbean as well as the Atlantic Passages will gradually diminish to moderate to fresh S winds today. Large northerly swell will also bleed through the Mona Passage through this morning before subsiding. Easterly trade winds are expected to return to east and central portions of the basin on Wed and increase to fresh speeds across most of central portions Wed night and Thu as Atlantic high pressure builds west-southwestward in the wake of Erin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for further details on Hurricane Erin. Major Hurricane Erin is near 22.8N 70.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Aside from Erin, a cold front is moving across the north-central waters generating scattered moderate convection N of 28N between 40W and 57W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical waters are under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high near 36N27W and a 1021 mb high near 26N40W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and two tropical waves S of 20N is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas over these regions. For the forecast, Erin will move to 23.6N 71.2W this afternoon, 25.0N 72.2W Tue morning, 26.6N 72.9W Tue afternoon, 28.6N 73.4W Wed morning, 30.7N 73.4W Wed afternoon, and 32.9N 72.2W Thu morning. Erin will change little in intensity as it moves near 37.2N 66.1W early Fri. Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. The pressure gradient between a ridge over the eastern U.S. and Erin will promote moderate to fresh N to NE winds offshore northern Florida to near 76W from early Tue through Wed. In the wake of Erin, high pressure will build west- southwestward along 24N through Thu night. $$ Ramos