991
AXNT20 KNHC 132206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Nov 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Agadir Gale Warning: Gale-force winds follow a cold front moving
into Morocco. Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the
Agadir zone which will be valid through at least 14/06 UTC.

For more information, please refer to Meteo-France`s website at:
http://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 07N22W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N40W to 06N57W along the coast of Guyana.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N-08N east of
20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...Corrected

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered off the mouth of the
Mississippi River. Fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas reach from the
Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel, between this high
pressure and lower pressure over the Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
NE winds and 1-3 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered
over the NE Gulf and relatively lower pressure to the south will
allow for moderate to locally fresh northeast winds and moderate
seas across the southeastern Gulf through Fri evening, including
the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. The high pressure
will change little through tonight, then be replaced by new high
pressure on Fri. This high pressure will slip southward through
the weekend, and shift eastward early next week as a cold front
pushes offshore the southeastern U.S. Otherwise, mostly moderate
southeast to south winds are expected over the NW Gulf through
this weekend before increasing to fresh speeds Mon night and
lasting into Tue while expanding in coverage.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shearline extends from northern Haiti to the Gulf of Honduras.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Gulf north of
Roatan. Fresh NE winds and 5-8 ft seas are noted north of the
shearline. High pressure north of the Caribbean along with a 1008
mb Colombian Low is forcing NE to E fresh trades in the SW
Caribbean with seas 7-9 ft. Over the central and eastern
Caribbean, the trades are moderate to fresh with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, the winds north of the shearline will continue
into early Fri, then become fresh northeast to east winds through
Sat. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trade winds over the central
portion of the basin will continue into late Fri night. Widespread
rough seas will continue over these areas. Winds and seas will
slowly diminish into early Fri as the shearline gradually weakens
and high pressure to the north weakens. Elsewhere, locally fresh
northeast winds will continue to pulse in the lee of Cuba and near
the coasts of NW Venezuela and Colombia into Sat. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue west of about 80W through
at least early Sat, however, this activity is expected to be
numerous in coverage along and north of the shearline. Gentle to
moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the basin
this weekend into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the Agadir zone.

A stationary front extends from 1014 mb low pressure near 31N53W
northern Haiti. A second front is stalling from Bermuda to near
the Florida-Georgia border. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and
5-8 ft seas are noted north of this front, east of 75W. The axis
of a ridge extends between these features from central Florida to
near 30N60W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas extend
across the southern Bahamas between the ridge and the easternmost
front. An area of 8 to 10 ft NW swell persists north of 22N
between 45W and 60W. Over the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NW
winds and 8 to 13 ft seas follow the front mentioned in the
Special Features section, north of 25N and east of 25W. Gentle to
moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of
40W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted
elsewhere across the basin, under the influence of 1020 mb high
pressure centered near 29N40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh northeast winds will continue
north of the front to 25N between 69W and into early Fri
afternoon, then moderate to locally fresh winds will continue
through late Fri night as the fronts slowly dissipate. Seas just
below 12 ft over the NE part of the area will shift east of 55W
late tonight into early Fri. Otherwise, a new cold front moving
eastward away from the southeastern U.S. overnight will lead to
moderate to fresh west to northwest winds and locally rough seas
north of 29N through tonight. The cold front is expected to reach
the central Atlantic by late Fri. Looking ahead, a series of cold
fronts passing north of the region this weekend will lead to
strengthening winds and building seas over the northern forecast
waters while weak high pressure prevails elsewhere. Conditions
over these waters quiet down some early next week.

$$
Christensen