860
AXNT20 KNHC 241639
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1638 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N16W and
continues southwestward to 10N18W. The ITCZ extends from 10N18W
to 10N34W and to 10N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring E of 32.5W between 05N and 15N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to near
28N89W, then it transition to a warm front to near Galveston, TX.
No deep convection is noted near this boundary. A tightening
pressure gradient supports fresh to locally strong southerly
winds off southern Texas and Tamaulipas, along with seas of 4-6
ft. Elsewhere south of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly winds and
seas of 2-4 ft prevail, while lighter winds and slight seas are
noted in the northern and eastern Gulf waters.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida
panhandle to 28N89W. The front is expected to become a warm front
and lift northeastward this morning as low pressure develops over
the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas
coast through tonight supported by the gradient between low
pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the
Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal
boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger
reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early
Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then
sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh
to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial
frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa Rica,
Panama and NW Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail in the
south- central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft, as
confirmed by a recent altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh
NE to E winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of
the islands and a lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain
fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central
Caribbean through late this week. Seas will peak around 12 ft. In
the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support
moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through the
period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on
Fri, sustaining strong winds and rough seas behind the boundary.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from south of Bermuda to near 27N78W,
then it transition to a stationary front that extends to near Coco
Beach, Florida and a few showers are seen near the boundary. The
remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a
weak pressure gradient. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are found in these waters. Farther east, a weak 1016 mb low
pressure is near 28N48W. A surface trough extends from this low to
21N47W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 20N and
between 43W and 46W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high
pressure system south of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 15N and
between 30W and 46W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough
seas are found north of 27N and east of 30W. Farthest east, fresh
to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 11N to 19N and
east of 26W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the
aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W
to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to
lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward
off Carolina coast following the front, supporting moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed,
ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast
Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds
and building seas through Fri night.

$$
KRV