185
AXNT20 KNHC 221000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall in Central America:
A Central American Gyre (CAG) is gradually developing over Central
America with a 1007 mb low pressure embedded along the monsoon
trough near central Panama. A broad area of numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection encompasses much of the SW Caribbean
Sea in association with this low. The low is forecast to drift
northwestward across northern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and
the Yucatan Peninsula through the middle of next week. Aided by
abundant tropical moisture, this system may produce significant
rainfall near Panama through tonight, and Costa Rica and eastern
Nicaragua through Tuesday. Heavy rain may spread over central and
northern Guatemala, western Honduras, Belize and the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula Monday through Thursday. This will lead to an
increased potential for life- threatening flash flooding and
mudslides in these areas. In addition, gradual development of this
system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely for form
as the system moves slowly north across the NW Caribbean and Gulf
of Mexico through the end of the week. There is a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days. It is
recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas stay alert
on the latest information from their local meteorological
agencies. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the
Eastern Pacific at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for rainfall across
El Salvador and the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then extends southwestward across
10N28W to 08N35W. An ITCZ curves northwestward from 08N35W to
10N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N E
of 21W, from 14N to 17N between 34W and 39W, and from 09N to 16N
between 43W and 48W.

See Special Features section above for information on a low
pressure center along the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon
trough and its associated convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on developing
low pressure over the NW Caribbean and adjacent parts of Central
America that may impact portions of Gulf of Mexico later this
week.

Weak high pressure dominates, aside from a surface trough that has
moved W offshore the Yucatan overnight. Dry conditions prevail
with light to gentle E winds and seas of 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will gradually be replaced by
the low pressure described in the Special Features section above.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for potential
heavy rainfall associated with a developing Central American Gyre
(CAG).

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft are noted at the southeastern basin. Mainly gentle E to SE
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, aside from the developing low pressure in the NW
Caribbean, described in the Special Features section above, winds
and seas will generally be moderate or less.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1007 mb low pressure centered near 26N56W is producing scattered
moderate convection along with fresh winds and seas to 8 ft from
26N to 29N between 52W and 56W. This low (AL96) is in an
unfavorable environment for development, but a short lived
tropical depression cannot be ruled out of showers and
thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves N at
5 kt over the central subtropical Atlantic. There is a low chance
of tropical formation through the next 48 hours.

Farther E, the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are centered near
26N42W, with 1007 mb. This low is no longer producing in
convection, but a broad area of fresh SE winds and seas of 7 to
9 ft extend N of the low, N of 22N between 36W and 42W.

A weak surface trough stretches from N of 31N70W to just NE of the
Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of
this trough axis, and fresh N winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted W of the trough, N of 29N, extending W to 78W.

For the remainder of the basin, weak high pressure is leading to
light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, except N of the
monsoon trough, where moderate trades and seas to 6 ft prevail.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa over
the next f ew days. Gradual development of this wave is possible
as it moves W, and a tropical depression could form during the
middle to latter part of the week while the system moves across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak cold front will move off the SE
coast of the US this afternoon, then slowly move across the
waters N of 25N through Mon night.

$$
Konarik