448
FXUS61 KBGM 020005
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
805 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue tonight with high pressure
overhead. Spotty showers are possible Sunday, mainly west of
I-81. Otherwise, warmer and mostly quiet conditions are expected
through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...

Little change to the previous forecast. Dew points were lowered
a little further through the evening with clouds adjusted to
match trends with the cirrus moving in.

315 PM Update...

High pressure will remain over the area through tonight keeping
quiet conditions in place with just some scattered high clouds
streaming through. Not quite as chilly overnight compared to the
previous couple of nights as lows will generally be in the 50s.
Some of the highest elevations in the Catskills and in northern
Oneida County can still slip back into the upper 40s.

High pressure will slide to the east tomorrow making way for a
weak upper level shortwave that will move in from the west.
After starting the day with some sunshine, clouds will increase
for the afternoon. Showers are expected to develop over western
parts of the area generally after 18Z and push east, however
with a fair amount of dry air in place, these showers may be
spotty at best and struggle to reach areas east of I-81 so the
current CAMS seem to potentially be overdone. There is also a
modest amounts of surface-based CAPE between 200-500 J/kg on
most models, with the NAM slightly higher between 700-900 J/kg
during the afternoon with 20-30 knots of shear in place, so an
isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out,
mainly from the Finger Lakes to the Syracuse metro area. High
temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 70s to the low
80s.

Isolated showers can linger tomorrow night as the shortwave
slowly moves to the south and east. It will be a mild night with
lows from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update

The short term forecast period is mostly quiet with ridging
overhead. However, a weak upper impulse pushes across western
NY and into central PA Monday afternoon. At this time, with the
instability that will be in place Monday afternoon, can`t rule
out an isolated shower/storm, especially across NE PA.

Ridging will settle over the region Monday night into Tuesday
and this will make for dry and warm conditions, with highs
Tuesday afternoon into the 80s across most of the area.
Overnight temperatures will remain warm, with lows only in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
235 PM Update

Ridging will likely hold over the area for most of the day on
Wednesday, so decided to cut back the PoPs from NBM. The best
chances for showers will be west of the I81 corridor during the
day on Wednesday and that shower threat will spread eastward
Wednesday night into Thursday. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
in the model guidance for days 6 and 7. Due to the low
confidence, stuck close to the NBM solution through the
remainder of the period. Forecast ensembles are indicating deep
SW return flow developing and NAEFS have PWAT anomaly of about 2
standard deviations. Unsettled weather on Thursday and Friday
is expected as a broad upper trough pushes down out of Canada.
Heavy rain shower and thunderstorms will be possible, especially
with the high low level moisture content. The upper level trough/low
remains just to the north Friday. This will keep the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week and
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through early
tomorrow as high pressure overhead gradually shifts east. An
upper level shortwave moving in from the west will lead to
increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon with showers developing
mainly after 18Z. Showers are expected to be more spotty in
nature due to some drier air that needs to be overcome, so some
of the CAMS may be overdone with how widespread precipitation is
being depicted through 00Z. Given this uncertainty, showers
have been left out of the TAF sites for now, but ELM, ITH, SYR
and BGM seem to have the best chance of showers. There is some
modest instability and shear that may support an isolated
thunderstorm through early evening as well, so this will be
monitored as this could result in some brief restrictions.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Chance of a shower/storm and associated
restrictions, especially through 06Z.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; isolated rain showers.

Wednesday...Low chance of shower/storm and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday... increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front
approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...DK