384
FXUS61 KBGM 122354
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
754 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will move back into the area tonight into Monday as the
western side of a coastal low pressure system impacts our area.
Conditions will dry out by Tuesday and remain mainly dry for
most of the week. Cooler weather will arrive on Wednesday and
Thursday, before temperatures warm up by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update:

As expected, conditions have been mainly dry this afternoon as
we are experiencing a lull between rounds of rainfall. There are
a few light showers/sprinkles pivoting in from the southeast
moving across parts of Northeast PA/Twin Tiers, but these are
very light and may not even be reaching the ground in some
locations due to drier air in place. Most areas west of I-81
have been mostly sunny, with more cloud cover east of I-81 due
to the easterly flow off of the Atlantic.

This easterly flow tonight into Monday off of the Atlantic will
bring in another round of rain. Due to this easterly flow, east
facing slopes will see some local enhancement of rainfall, with
some rain shadowing on the west facing slopes. The majority of
the rainfall will occur after midnight tonight and through
Monday morning, before the steady rainfall gradually tapers off
to showers Monday afternoon and evening. Highs on Monday are
expected to be in the 50s for most of the area due to the rain-
cooled air and extensive cloud cover. Then lows in the 40s are
expected Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update:

High pressure will approach the region on Tuesday, which will
bring a return to dry weather and partly to mostly sunny skies.
With a tight pressure gradient between the departing coastal
storm and the approaching high pressure system, winds may still be
somewhat gusty on Tuesday. Highs are expected to be in the 60s.
Then dry and mostly clear skies are expected Tuesday night with
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

A northwest flow regime will set up Wednesday through at least
Thursday, which will advect in a cool airmass. Highs on
Wednesday will likely only be in the upper 40s to upper 50s
despite mostly sunny skies. Then a cool night will be in store
Wednesday night with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM Update:

The cool airmass will remain in place on Thursday with highs
only topping out in the upper 40s to mid 50s despite another
mostly sunny day. Then with light winds and mostly clear skies,
lows Thursday night will likely drop down to at least the mid
20s to mid 30s.

The central US ridge will eventually build into the eastern US
by next weekend. This will allow for a gradual moderation in
temperatures starting on Friday and especially for Saturday and
Sunday. The next more widespread chance of rain likely wouldn`t
occur until at least Sunday, or possibly Sunday night into
Monday with an approaching frontal system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will move slowly northward along the Eastern
seaboard over the next 24 hours. Rain from the low has not
progressed westward as quickly as guidance suggested so rain and
restriction onset has been pushed back by a few hours.
Lowering of ceilings to MVFR/Fuel Alt and increasing showers
from west to east should begin around midnight, lasting through
Monday afternoon.

AVP should see IFR conditions starting overnight with NE flow
over the area, which is a great wind direction to get ceilings
to fall to IFR at the terminal. ELM is also showing a chance for
IFR ceilings and vis with the steadier rain showers and NE flow
into the valley overnight and into the morning hours. BGM looks
to see IFR ceilings in the afternoon hours.


Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley fog each
morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC