920
FXUS61 KBGM 300548
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made with the morning forecast
package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure continues today, with dry conditions expected.

2) A warm front brings chances for showers tomorrow morning,
followed by a cold front with widepsread showers on Friday.
Temperatures turn colder behind the front with frost possible
across the north this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure conditions have begun to slowly erode away some
cloud cover, which has blossomed fog in areas where skies have
cleared. However, clouds will likely increase again today, and
lasting through the day. Overall high pressure conditions will
keep conditions dry, with very low to negligible chances for
precipitation expected. Warm air advection from southwesterly
flow will push temperatures into the 70s with upper 60s in the
Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A weak warm front will cross through region late overnight
tonight through tomorrow morning, which will bring a few light
showers across the area, but nothing substantial. The next
chance for more widespread rainfall will come on Friday, when
the cold front crosses the region. Scattered showers are
expected across the area on Friday, with rainfall amounts around
a quarter to a half inch expected. The front exits the region
Friday night with Canadian high pressure pushing in behind it.
Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler going into the
weekend than tomorrow`s and Friday`s highs, which are
forecasted to top out in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows
could get into the low to mid 30s Saturday night across northern
Oneida County, but there remains some uncertainty with cloud
cover, as another system approaches by early Sunday morning.

There still remains some timing differences among model
guidance runs on an upper trough/cold front dropping out of
Canada Sunday into Monday, and low pressure tracking off the
Mid Atlantic Coast to our south. With uncertainty remaining, we
continued to utilize the NBM`s solution for late weekend into
early next week`s forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Abundant low level moisture is bringing widespread restrictions
to most of the Central NY terminals from fog and low stratus. As
of 06Z, conditions are VFR around KAVP, but some patchy fog will
also be possible there early this morning. Restrictions will
linger until around 13Z across the area, before VFR conditions
return area-wide.

Outlook...

Thursday..Morning fog in the favorable areas, especially at
KELM will be possible, which will likely result in restrictions.
Scattered showers developing across Central NY, which may bring
occasional restrictions.

Friday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions
possible.

Saturday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BJG