585
FXUS61 KBGM 162350
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
750 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cool weather will continue through Tuesday, along
with some scattered showers. Temperatures will become very warm
for Wednesday and Thursday, before a cold front brings showers
and thunderstorms to the area on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor edits with the evening updates to account for the
coverage of showers. Forecast discussion below on track.

340 PM Update:

Similar to the past several days, persistent cool and cloudy
conditions will remain through the near term period with a
stationary front located well to our south. Isolated to
scattered showers are expected through tonight, but these are
expected to be rather light. Otherwise it will be cloudy with
lows in the 60s.

A shortwave will bring another chance of showers Tuesday,
especially during the afternoon. However, instability looks
very limited at this time due to extensive cloud cover. A rumble
of thunder cannot be ruled out, but current expectations are
that any thunderstorms would be very isolated and weak.
Otherwise, it will be another cloudy day with below normal
temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Scattered showers continue Tuesday night, but gradually shift
eastward and diminish in coverage, especially the second half of
the night. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows
in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...

Southwest flow on Wednesday with temperatures and humidity
increasing across the region. There will be some decent
instability that develops in the afternoon with forecast
soundings topping out around 1500 J/kg of CAPE. However, shear
will be weak at only 20 to 25 knots, so any thunderstorms that
can develop will likely be unorganized and of the pulse variety.
Models are indicating a weak short wave pushing into the region
by the late morning or early afternoon that will also help make
showers and thunderstorms more widespread later in the day.
Depending on the exact timing of this wave, and if instability
can increase a bit more with diurnal heating, then a chance a
stronger shot-lived is certainly possible. Although wind fields
are weak, PWATS are progged to increase above 1.75" and
precipitation loading in collapsing cells may cause some
localized stronger wind gusts.

High temperatures will climb likely climb well into the 80s,
unless storms develop a little sooner than currently forecast,
as convection could limit afternoon heating. With dewpoints also
expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, the daytime hours will
be humid and finally give the area a taste of summer. Showers
will likely linger in the night, but will drastically decrease
in coverage with the loss of heating after sunset. Temperatures
will remain warm overnight with lows only falling to the mid
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM Update...

Strong low pressure will track across southern Ontario and into
Quebec on Thursday. This system will drag a strong cold front
across our region sometime during the day Thursday, but timing
of FROPA remains uncertain at this time. If the front comes
through earlier in the late morning to early afternoon, then the
potential for severe thunderstorms will likely push south and
east of our CWA. Deep SW return flow extending all the way to
the Gulf of America will transport ample moisture into the
region. PWATs have the potential to exceed 1.75", which would be
over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. A
deep warm cloud depth over 10K feet is also expected, but the
good news is that storms should be progressive with storm
motions of 40 - 45 knots. However, if multiple cells are able to
track over the same area then flash flooding will be possible,
especially with potential rainfall rates over 2" per hour and
wet antecedent conditions already in place.

As far as severe thunderstorm potential, this will be dependent
of the timing of the front. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE to
around 1500 J/kg and this accompanied with bulk shear of 35 to
40 kts would be enough for strong to severe thunderstorms. If
the front comes into the region earlier in the day, then heavy
rainfall will still remain a threat, but the severe risk will be
minimal. The front will be clear of the region Thursday night,
however a broad upper level trough will remain overhead into the
weekend. Several weak short waves will move across the area and
each will bring the potential for more showers and storms Friday
and Saturday.

By Sunday, a large ridge of high pressure will start to become
established over the eastern U.S. This system could bring the
first true heat of the summer, with highs Sunday and Monday next
week possibly climbing into the 90s in some areas. Depending on
the exact positioning of the high, some air mass thunderstorms
could be possible during the max heating hours of the afternoon
and lingering into the evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions are expected to settle in
this evening at most sites. By tonight, low-level moisture will
allow for ceilings to lower further at all terminals, with IFR
restrictions possible at KBGM, KELM, and KITH. Guidance is
hinting at IFR ceiling restrictions also at KAVP, but with a
downsloping southeast flow, this is not likely. Guidance hints
that pessimistic restrictions persist through the entire
period.


Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night...Occasional
restrictions possible in isolated to scattered showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms increase, especially each afternoon. Occasional
restrictions likely.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm may result in
brief restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...BJG/ES