507
FXUS61 KBGM 281051
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
651 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and cooler air will move into the region tonight and
Friday as a cold front passes through the area. High pressure
with dry and progressively milder weather is expected for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
210 AM Update...

 Now through Friday...

A cold front is expected to pass through the area west-to-east
tonight into Friday morning. As this front approaches, the
pressure gradient pinches, resulting in increased southwesterly
winds for the Finger Lakes region and northern Central NY ahead
of the main front late this morning and into the afternoon
hours. The frontal boundary arrives this evening, and will bring
much cooler air that will funnel into our area. Although we are
currently sitting at below average temperatures, high
temperatures are only expected to reach into the low to upper
60s Friday. With west-northwesterly flow following the frontal
passage, scattered lake effect rain showers are possible through
Friday evening mainly for Central NY.


 Friday Night through Saturday Night...

The upper level trough kicks off to the north and east, settling
almost stationary just north of New England. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure attempts to build in from the west, but with
persistent northwesterly flow with the semi-stationary upper
level low, there are chances for scattered lake effect rain
showers for Central NY through Saturday night. Confidence isn`t
very high for the probability of lake effect rain showers, as
well as the extent southward they may go, so we remained with
the NBM solution.

 Sunday through Wednesday...

Surface high pressure wins out heading into Sunday as the upper
level low to the north and east begins to weaken and progress
eastward. Models depict a 4-day stretch of dry conditions, with
a warming trend of low to mid 70s on Sunday, to mid 70s to low
80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across the area today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Rain showers are expected to move in
ahead of the front around 00z. VFR conditions will prevail at
the onset of rain, with conditions dropping to MVFR at
a few hours later as ceilings fall thanks to increased moisture
from the rain showers. Low cloud decks remain through the end of
the TAF period as cold air continues to move into the area.
SYR/RME/BGM should see MVFR to Fuel Alt conditions. ITH should
see IFR ceilings as winds push more moisture off Cayuga Lake
into the terminal. ELM should see fog develop after the rain
leaves late tonight into the early morning hours. AVP should see
some rain showers after midnight, but conditions should remain
VFR.

There is a slight chance for thunder at SYR at the onset of rain
chances, but confidence was not high enough to include it in the
TAFs.


Outlook...

Friday...Lingering lake effect showers possible, mainly across
CNY

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building in and lake effect winding down.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC