418
FXUS63 KBIS 100031
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
631 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of snow and blowing snow will continue across northern
  and eastern portions of the state through tonight.

- Very strong winds expected through much of tonight, with
  gusts as high as 65 mph.

- Another round of snow will impact all of western and central
  North Dakota Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. Areas
  of freezing rain are also possible with this system in western
  and south central North Dakota.

- Below average temperatures are expected Wednesday through the
  upcoming weekend, with dangerous wind chills possible Thursday
  evening through Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

At 6 PM CST, the surface low was located in far west central
Minnesota, just east of the ND/SD border. The core of strongest
pressure rises has entered western North Dakota, where
widespread 50 to 60 mph gusts are now being reported. The
strongest mixed layer winds are analyzed ever so slightly to the
east of the strongest pressure rises, between Highways 85 and
83, increasing from around 55 kts north to near 65 kts the
south. The strongest low level cold air advection also coincides
with the core of the strongest mixed layer winds. As the the
stronger pressure rises translate southeastward this evening, we
expect an increase surface gusts, in particular from northwest
to south central North Dakota where we still anticipated maximum
gusts around 60 to 65 mph.

Radar shows an area of snow along and east of Highway 83,
surging south across Highway 200. Visibility has mostly remained
above 1 mile in areas of falling snow, which extends just
slightly to the west of the current Winter Weather Advisory. The
period of winter impacts ongoing across Ward and McLean
Counties is not anticipated to last more than another hour or
two, so not planning on re- expanding the advisory back to the
west at this time.

There have been several reports via automated surface
observations and webcams of light rain/freezing rain along the
western edge of the precipitation shield, mainly across Divide,
Burke, Mountrail, and western McLean Counties. RAP analysis and
forecast soundings do show an hour or two with the entire
saturated column from the surface to the top of the boundary
layer below freezing, but with minimum cloud temperatures not
yet cold enough for ice nucleation. This potential threat is not
expected to last more than an hour or two at any given
location, as was observed at Estevan, SK a couple hours ago, and
it is not expected to produce impacts beyond the effects of
already wet surfaces quickly becoming icy from the rapidly
falling air temperatures. We have added low to medium chances
for freezing rain to the forecast for this evening from
northwest to south central North Dakota.

UPDATE
Issued at 348 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Quick update to add low to medium probabilities for freezing
rain as a precipitation type in northwest North Dakota through
the rest of the afternoon. Several automated surface
observations and webcams in this area indicate light freezing
rain, and RAP soundings do show minimum cloud layer temperatures
well above -10 C. Those temperatures should be cooling rapidly
though, and Estevan as already transitioned to snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Clipper system will continue move across the state through
tonight. Slightly different track of this low has delayed the
strong winds to an extent, although a secondary cold front will
push through tonight brining better cold air advection and
strong pressure rises. This could be the extra push the winds
need to be very strong this evening through tonight. Thus have
continued the High Wind Warning. Along this mentioned front will
be another round of snow. Across northern and central portions.
Accumulations for this round of snow look to be around 1 to 4
inches, although the combination of falling snow and strong
winds could bring areas of impactful blowing snow. Blizzard
conditions may still be tough to produce, although depending how
much fresh snow falls could be a possibility tonight. For now
have extended the current Winter Weather Advisory in north
central and eastern North Dakota through tonight. Look for
colder temperatures to move in behind this front, with lows in
the single digits north to the teens and 20s south. Given the
wet conditions today this could lead to a flash freeze tonight.
A brief ridge of high pressure them moves through Wednesday,
diminishing winds and perhaps bringing some partial clearing.
Highs on Wednesday will be colder in the east and generally in
the teens, while warm air lingers in the west with highs in the
20s to lower 30s. As this high pulls away a few light snow
showers are possible in the west Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday evening through Thursday the next round of impactful
winter weather looks to push through. Upper level wave looks to
move through bringing strong 850 mb warm air advection and
frontogenesis. Meanwhile the surface low moves parallel to this
boundary, providing for a longer residence time for
precipitation. Thus a band of moderate to heavy snow may set up
with this system. Meanwhile warm air aloft could also provide
for another round of freezing rain, with the highest chances of
this occurring currently in the southwest. There still is some
uncertainty in the models on how much snow and ice is forecast,
likely do to some ptype differences. However, today there was
high enough confidence in at least advisory level impacts from
this freezing rain and snow potential that a Winter Weather
Advisory was issued along, south, and west of the Missouri River
for Wednesday night through Thursday. Up to a tenth of an inch
of ice and 4 inches of snow are possible in this advisory area.
Winds will also increase through the day and night Thursday,
perhaps bringing some blowing snow potential. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the 20s southwest to near zero northeast, while
highs Thursday are forecast in the teens northeast to the 40s
southwest. These warmer temperatures in the southwest could
allow for some rain mixed in at times in the afternoon Thursday.

Behind the Thursday system looks to be an arctic cold front
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring breezy winds,
chances for snow and blowing snow, and much colder temperatures
with highs in the single digits above and below zero. Depending
on timing of this front, dangerous wind chills could also start
early Friday morning. Arctic airmass then lingers through much
of the weekend, bringing the potential for dangerous winds
chills. Lows each night are forecast to be in the teens to 20s
below zero, with highs struggling to get above zero. Sunday
could warm slightly although spreads in the NBM temperatures
remain large. Northwest flow also looks to continue through the
weekend. This could bring off and on chances for snow each day.
Right now the highest impacts 24 hour period could come Friday
evening through Saturday with the NBM chances for at least 4
inches at 20 to 70% especially in the southwest and south
central. Winds look to be fairly light during this time period
perhaps limited the chances for blowing snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Precipitation/Visibility:

Areas from around KMOT to KJMS and points eastward are expected
to see a period of snow reducing visibility to primarily IFR
levels this evening. The snow should taper off from west to east
into the late overnight hours. Patchy blowing snow may continue
to reduce visibility to MVFR levels for a few hours after the
snow ends. From between KXWA and KMOT down to KBIS, a mix of
light rain, freezing rain, and snow is possible this evening. By
late Wednesday afternoon, the next round of snow is expected to
move into western North Dakota, possibly reaching KXWA and KDIK
by the end of the forecast period.

Ceilings:

Primarily MVFR ceilings with pockets of IFR/LIFR expected
across central and eastern North Dakota through tonight. A
period of MVFR/IFR ceilings is also expected in northwest North
Dakota this evening. There is uncertainty on how long MVFR
ceilings could persist on Wednesday from around KMOT to KBIS,
but KJMS and surrounding areas are more likely to maintain an
MVFR ceiling through the forecast period. MVFR/IFR ceilings are
then expected with the snow arriving in western North Dakota
late Wednesday afternoon.

Winds:

Very strong northwest winds are expected this evening,
especially from around KXWA to KBIS where gusts could exceed 50
kts. A brief period of low level wind shear will impact
southwest and south central North Dakota early this evening
prior to the arrival of the strongest surface winds. The winds
should slowly diminish late tonight into Wednesday morning.
After a period of light and variable winds, a southeasterly
breeze around 10 kts is forecast to develop in western North
Dakota by late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
NDZ001>003-009>012-017>021-031-032-040-043.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ004-
005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday to
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Thursday for NDZ009-010-017>021-031>035-
040>046.
High Wind Warning until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Wednesday for
NDZ022-023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Hollan