488
FXUS63 KBIS 030001
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
601 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain tapering off from northwest to southeast tonight.
  Chances for rain continue across portions of the James River
  Valley on Tuesday.

- Windy area wide tonight (strongest across the far southwest
  and south central), and for Tuesday south and east.


- Near to above normal temperatures and dry weather favored for
  the middle to later portions of this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 556 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

For the early evening update we adjusted pops based on latest
radar and observations. We also bumped up low temperatures for
tonight. With widespread stratus expected to linger through the
night, the NBM low temperatures look a little too low. Otherwise
no significant changes needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Currently, long wave upper level trough over the central CONUS
with embedded lows over eastern North Dakota and the Southern
Plains. Associated sfc trough over eastern South Dakota extends
north-northeast into western Minnesota. Widespread rain
continues over most areas of western and central North Dakota,
but has mainly diminished over the northwest outside of a few
sprinkles. This trend will continue from northwest to southeast
for the rest of today and tonight, as the main forcing shifts to
the east. Thus far have received over an inch of rainfall in
parts of west central North Dakota, and especially in the
southeast/James River Valley where an inch to over an inch and a
quarter has been observed. Still on track to maybe seeing
upwards to 2 inches of rain across parts of the James Valley
through tonight/Tue daytime.

On the backside of the aforementioned sfc trough, northerly
winds have increased and will continue to be gusty into the
evening hours. Strongest winds still expected far southwest and
far south central, where the Wind Advisory remains in effect
till 06Z tonight.

Surface high pressures builds into the western Dakotas on
Tuesday, along with a quasi-omega ridge forming over the
Northern Rockies, and the Southern Plains upper low lifting
north-northeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley region. This may
linger wrap around showers over my southeast for Tuesday and
maybe even for Tuesday night and Wednesday as it is projected to
stall over Minnesota. Clearing over at least the western half
of the region Tue and Wed. Cooler/near to slightly below normal
highs forecast for Tue (40s), then slowly warming on Wed (mid
40s to lower 50s).

Weak ridging builds into the central CONUS for the later period
of the week, maintaining mainly dry weather and temperatures
moderating to a several degrees above normal by the end of the
week (low/mid 50s for Friday forecast). Thereafter, ensembles
show a progressive upper level pattern thus higher level of
uncertainty in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain has all but ended over western ND and will taper over
central ND this evening into the overnight hours. Rain will
likely linger into Tuesday for portions of the James River
Valley. Widespread stratus is expected to linger through the
night with mainly IFR to LIFR ceilings, although some clearing
is possible in the northwest after midnight. Improving ceilings
from west to east as low stratus burns off on Tuesday. Low
clouds may linger over portions of the south central into the
James River Valley through the entire TAF period. Strong north
to northwest winds continue tonight, especially in the far
southwest and far south central. Winds do diminish late tonight
from northwest to southeast. North to northwest winds will
remain breezy over southern and eastern portions of the forecast
area on Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for
NDZ040>044-061-062.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH