863
FXUS63 KBIS 012353
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
553 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will spread from southwest to northeast over North Dakota
  overnight, with rain continuing through Monday. There are high
  chances(over 80 percent) for one inch of rainfall or more
  generally along and south of Interstate 94.

- Gusty northerly winds develop on Monday, possibly becoming
  strong over far southern parts of the area.

- Near to above average temperatures and drier weather are
  favored later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

No significant updates other than making sure we had 100% sky
cover through the day Monday. Widespread stratus and areas of
fog will remain tonight with rain chances increasing from
southwest to northeast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Current surface analysis places deepening low over Colorado into
Wyoming, while tilted ridge remains orientated through the Great
Lakes into Ontario/central Manitoba. Upper level analysis places
deep trough approaching the western fringes of the Rockies, with
a low remaining closed off over Nevada. Over our area, moist
south/southeast flow continues to keep low cloud cover
throughout the state while temperatures remain quite mild.

For tonight, surface low will continue to deepen before ejecting
out over Nebraska overnight, nudging into central South Dakota,
as upper trough slides over the Rockies. Precipitation that is
already starting to develop over western South Dakota nudging
into southeast Montana will continue to push northeasterly and
spread out in coverage. As we go through the night, rain showers
will eventually push throughout the state.

On Monday, low gradually lifts to the southeast crossing near
the intersection of ND/SD/MN late afternoon into the early
evening, while upper trough pushes easterly and starts to close
off nearly stacking the system. Widespread rain continues
through the day before starting to taper off over the west
overnight as the low slides into Minnesota. Low then loiters
over Minnesota for Tuesday. The overall track of the system is
a bit slower and stretching a bit further west. Therefore,
rainfall chances have broadened and increased. Latest NBM
guidance is now giving about an 80 percent or greater chance of
seeing one inch or more of rain along and south of Interstate
94, and a 60 percent or greater chance of seeing two inches or
more along and southeast of a line from Jamestown to Wishek.

Along with the precipitation, winds will be on the increase
later Monday into Monday night as the low lifts on its way.
Latest NBM continues to suggest the possibility of advisory
criteria wind gusts (45 mph) over mainly the southern 1/3 of our
area, but a look at forecast soundings continues to show
question as to whether this could be realized given lack of
mixing. Therefore, will hold off on any products for now and
give it another look overnight.

Quieter weather sets up over the area mid-week, though a few
rain showers remain possible on Wednesday over our eastern
locations given the loitering low over Minnesota. Mainly dry
conditions then expected through he remainder of the week, with
near to above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A strong storm system currently over the central Rockies will
track northeast to far northeast South Dakota by 00 UTC Tuesday.
Widespread low clouds and areas of fog will remain across the
state with most areas seeing IFR-LIFR ceilings and visibilities
through the TAF period. Rain will move into southern and
western ND tonight spreading northeast, and continuing through
the TAF period. Rain will diminish over northwest ND Monday
afternoon.

Generally southeast to east winds to begin the TAF period 5 to
15 knots. Winds shift from southeast to east to northerly from
west to east tonight into Monday morning and increase to 15 to
25 mph. Monday, winds turn northerly 20 to 30 knots with gust of
35 kts (north) to 45 kts (south) by Monday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH