873
FXUS63 KBIS 080252
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
952 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures to return Wednesday and remain into the
  weekend.

- Chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms could
  return this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Quiet weather with a south/southeasterly breeze will continue
through the overnight hours. No changes needed.

UPDATE
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Clear skies continue over the area with a southerly breeze.
Going forecast remains in good shape with no changes needed at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Surface high to move eastward tonight. This could bring an
increased southerly wind, yet still keep temperatures on the
cool side. Even with lowering temperatures to the NBM50th
percentile, most areas remain above freezing tonight. Thus held
off on any freeze products. Otherwise look for mainly clear
skies tonight. Higher RH values may return tonight, although the
steady southerly wind should limit fog potential. A breezy
southerly flow, with warming temperatures, and continued dry
conditions are then expected for Wednesday. A weak wave then
moves through Wednesday night through Thursday. This will lessen
the winds and perhaps provide for some patchy fog Wednesday
night into Thursday. Some increased cloud cover may also be
found, mainly in the east. The atmosphere looks dry, thus dry
conditions remain in the forecast. A surface high may then move
in behind this wave on Friday. This will continue to bring
mainly dry conditions and perhaps slightly cooler more
seasonable temperatures.

Clusters still indicate a transition to a trough pattern sets up
this weekend, although uncertainty remains on timing and
strength of the wave. Deterministic models keep one more warm
day on Saturday, possibly lifting a warm front across the area.
Perhaps this could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms.
CSU-MLP showing some small severe potential in South Dakota.
Shear and instability looks limited, thus the severe potential
is very low at this time. Sunday into Monday, the mentioned
trough could then move through the state bringing more
widespread showers and perhaps some chances of thunderstorms.
Shear looks increased this day, yet instability is still
lacking. Thus severe weather chances remain very low.
Temperatures start to cool on Sunday, with 50s in the west and
60s in the east. Some deterministic models still hinting at a
chance of snow, now on Sunday night into Monday. There still
remains some uncertainty in how much cold air accompany this
trough. Any splits with this wave could also limit the cold air.
Currently snow is not in the forecast, however, this is
something to continue to monitor as this wave progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Southerly winds will become gusty on Thursday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...JJS