433
FXUS63 KBIS 201401
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
901 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Medium to high chances for light rain south and west of the
  Missouri River today. Rain ending southwest and south central
  this evening.

- Cool and cloudy today with highs from the mid 50s west to the
  mid 60s east.

- Gradual warming trend through the upcoming workweek, with
  highs mostly in the 60s on Monday increasing to the 70s and
  lower 80s by the end of the week.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through
  Wednesday night, otherwise mostly dry through the workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Scattered light showers continue across western and portions of
central North Dakota at the time of this mid morning update.
Have opted to pull shower chances further east over the next few
hours in line with the latest short term model trends.
Otherwise, patchy fog lingers over portions of north central
North Dakota at this time. While most locations remain well
above 1 to 3 miles, a few sites have occasionally dipped to 1/2
mile visibility or less. Cycling through NDDOT and NDAWN
cameras across the north central show that these pockets of
dense fog are fairly limited spatially. Overall, visibility is
expected to improve across the board, other than where light
rain is actively falling, over the next few hours as fog
continues to lift.

UPDATE
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Patchy has developed over north central ND so added some fog to
the gridded forecast here through mid morning. As of 6 AM the
only dense fog was located at the Minot airport. Most of the obs
with fog were in the 1-3SM range. Will monitor but no plans to
issue an Advisory or even a SPD at this time. Otherwise no
significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Showers continue to lift northward through western and south
central ND ahead of an upper level low pressure system currently
tracking through Wyoming. Occasional showers will continue
mainly south and west of the Missouri River through the day
today, although there was a bit of a northward shift in the
precipitation and light rain has pushed a little north of the
Missouri in far northwest ND. Rain amounts here though will
remain very light. As the day goes on, better precipitation
chances will shift to the south. This evening precipitation is
expected to taper off over southwest and south central ND, west
of the Missouri. Another cool day is expected today, especially
in the southwest where highs are forecast to be in the mid 50s.
We should see clear to partly cloudy skies most areas late
tonight into Monday morning, thus cooler overnight lows in the
40s are forecast.

Overall, it looks like a pretty quiet week ahead. We will see a
gradual warming trend. Highs start out mainly in the 60s on
Monday, the climb into the mid 70s to mid 80s by the end of the
workweek. One hiccup will be Wednesday through Wednesday night.
An upper level low, currently off the California coast lifts
northeast across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains by
Wednesday. This will bring a chance of showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms spreading southwest to northeast across the
forecast area. Late in the workweek, we are situated between
upper level high pressure over, or just east of us, with another
upper level low to our west. Currently the NBM is depicting dry
weather each day and can`t argue with that, especially
Thursday. However, with temperatures creeping into the 80s
west, an isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorm Can`t be ruled
out Friday afternoon or evening. On Saturday the upper low to
our west closes off and lifts northeast into Alberta and
Saskatchewan, with the associated cold front pushing through the
area Saturday-Sunday. Uncertainty is quite high at this time,
but another shot of showers and a few thunderstorms may be
possible over the weekend. Temperature wise, highs in the 70s
and 80s at the end of the workweek cool into the 60s to lower
70s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 900 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Widespread IFR to occasional LIFR ceilings and some MVFR
visibilities across southwest ND this morning, with scattered to
numerous showers. Elsewhere mainly VFR to MVFR ceilings but
there are some scattered IFR ceilings. An ares of IFR to LIFR
ceiling is also spreading from northeast ND westward into north
central ND. Expect varying ceiling heights through the morning
and probably into at least the early afternoon before
conditions improve, especially over eastern portions of the
forecast area. MVFR to IFR ceilings remain over southwest ND
tonight, with mostly VFR ceilings elsewhere, but there may be
patchy fog in some areas later tonight into Monday morning.
East to southeast surface flow 5 to 15 kts is expected through
the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH