437
FXUS63 KBIS 141429
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
929 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy with low chances for showers and possibly a few
  thunderstorms today.

- Potential for severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening, with
  greatest chances over southwest North Dakota.

- Temperatures remain near to a bit below average through the
  upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Based on the latest CAMs and other model guidance, seems like
most of the day will be dry for most of the area. Therefore,
reduced PoPs during the daytime hours today. That said, can`t
rule out a few rogue showers or thunderstorms developing this
afternoon, especially in western ND where cloud cover is more
likely to clear than in central and eastern parts of the state.
Otherwise, patchy fog remains mainly in parts of western ND and
will continue to dissipate through the morning hours.

UPDATE
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Persistent area of shower and thunderstorms continue to slide
east near the South Dakota border over south central North
Dakota into the James River Valley. Have increased precpitation
chances to address this. Remainder of forecast is in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Current surface analysis places low over southeast Wyoming, with
high over eastern Ontario. Upper level analysis places modest
broad ridge over our area, though a short wave sliding through
the ridge continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms passing near the South Dakota border over
southwest and south central North Dakota. Otherwise, a quiet and
cloudy night continues with light southeasterly winds.

For today, light southeasterly low level flow will continue to
keep elevated low level moisture in place over the area.
Aforementioned low amplitude ridge remains over the region, but
a variety of weak short waves continue to slide through. This
will result in low to medium chances for showers through much
of the day into the evening, and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Can not rule out the possibly of a stronger storm, mainly over
far southwest North Dakota where elevated instability and
sufficient deep layer shear are noted which may result in a
severe storm or two.

Sunday will see warmer temperatures over the area, along with
increased low level moisture. A more vigorous short wave pushes
through the ridge towards our area late day into the evening,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Models have been rather
consistent with showing enhanced 0-6km shear values of around
45-50kts, and enhanced instability, notably over southwest into
parts of far south central North Dakota where CAPE values of 2-3
kJ/kg are noted in latest guidance. Therefore, severe weather
will be possible. Will advertise the possibility of golf ball
hail and 70 mph winds over far southwest North Dakota where the
greatest shear/instability overlap is noted and storm mode may
still be more discrete, quarter to half-dollar and 60 mph
further north and east.

As we go through the work week we end up in a persistent pattern
of disturbances moving through bringing daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms, and seasonal temperatures. With
respect to severe possibilities, no single day is really
standing out with a notable threat at this time, but given the
pattern can not rule out the possibility at all.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Low stratus remains over much of the area, resulting in LIFR
conditions over parts of southwest North Dakota, with IFR over
most remaining locations. The exception is some MVFR ceilings
over far northern portions of the area. Expect this to continue
early this morning, with gradual improvement later this morning
into this afternoon. Ceilings are then expected to diminish
again overnight tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS