177
FXUS63 KBIS 090404
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1004 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures continue through Sunday.

- Warming trend on tap to start the work week, with temperatures
  climbing near to above average. These temperatures will
  continue through the week.

- Dry weather forecast through the upcoming work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Low clouds over central North Dakota continue to be rather
reluctant to go away this evening, but are finally starting to
dissipate from north to south. In addition, some additional
clouds continue to stream through southwest North Dakota. For
late evening update main change is to increase cloud cover
through the area overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 614 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Clouds have been a bit slow to depart central North Dakota, but
will continue to do so overnight. With that said, some flurries
remain with the reluctant to depart low clouds, so will mention
those in the forecast through the evening hours for central
NoDak into the Jame River Valley. Later tonight, calm winds and
fresh snowfall over the northwest may lead to some patches of
fog, therefore will mention that in the forecast late tonight
into Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Any lingering light snow and flurries should continue to taper off
this afternoon. In addition, skies should continue to gradually
clear off through the early evening, becoming mostly clear
overnight as surface high pressure dips into the state. This
will allow for some of the coldest temperatures so far this
season with lows throughout the state expected to drop down to
around 5 to 15 degrees above zero, though the Red River Valley
will likely remain a few degrees warmer. These colder
temperatures will persist through the remainder of the weekend
with highs Sunday in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and then lows
Sunday night dropping mostly into the teens above zero.

Meanwhile, a west CONUS ridge will amplify significantly
through the remainder of the weekend. An initially transitory
upper low will pass from western into central Canada, while
flattening and widening the ridge thus resulting in strong WAA
Monday. Simultaneously, surface high pressure will sink
southeastward through the Central and into the Southern Plains
states, which will result in breezy southerly flow at the
surface. Combined, these will produce quite a contrast in
temperatures on Monday with the eastern half of the state
forecast to remain in the mid 30s, while the western half will
range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Beyond Monday, northwest flow aloft is expected to persist through
most of the workweek before things become more uncertain next
weekend. While this favors mostly dry conditions as produced by
the NBM, embedded shortwave energy in northwestern flow aloft
occasionally produces light precipitation that is often
difficult to forecast well in advance. Overall, this pattern
will create a trend that is quite frequent during the North
Dakota winter season to where the northeastern corner of the
state will be much cooler than the southwestern corner. In this
case, that translates to above average highs in the low and mid
40s northeast to the 50s southwest, and may even approach 60 in
the far southwest towards the end of the workweek. That said,
ensembles suggest high uncertainty in regard to highs Friday
through next weekend so take that with a grain of salt. Lows
Monday night through next week are mostly forecast to range from
the mid 20s (near to slightly above average) to mid 30s (above
average).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

MVFR ceilings over parts of central North Dakota into the James
River Valley will slowly improve this evening to VFR levels.
Later tonight, patchy fog may develop over northwest North
Dakota with very localized IFR visibility. This could affect the
KXWA terminal, but confidence in this happening is quite low so
will not mention in the TAF product. Thereafter, VFR conditions
will prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...JJS