229
FXUS63 KBIS 072255
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
555 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected through Saturday morning. An isolated
  thunderstorm, possibly strong to severe, possible across the
  southeast late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.

- Very low humidity values combined with some increased
  northerly winds could bring an hour or two of near critical
  fire weather conditions across far southwestern North Dakota
  Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Low to medium chances (20 to 50 percent) for precipitation
  enter the forecast late Sunday and remain through much of the
  upcoming work week.

- Notably cooler temperatures today, warming for Saturday, then
  near to a bit below average going into the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Clear but hazy/smoky skies are expected this evening across
western and central North Dakota. No updates planned attim.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Surface high under northwest flow aloft will continue to push
across the state through tonight. Expect dry conditions as a
result with lows in the 50s tonight. Mainly clear skies are also
expected as the afternoon CU field in the north and east
dissipates. HRRR Smoke showing some near surface smoke possible
in the southwest tonight, with smoke aloft also moving in. It
may take some mixing to get smoke to the surface, thus limited
surface smoke through the evening hours tonight. Did adjust sky
cover to account for some smoke aloft through the night.
Saturday, a broad surface low lifts a weak warm front. This will
bring warmer temperatures in the 80s north to the 90s south.
Generally dry conditions will allow for some low afternoon
humidity values in the teens and 20s southwest, with above 30
percent elsewhere. With the surface low forecast to track across
southern ND, generally light winds are expected except late
afternoon and evening when northerly winds on the back side of
this low could increase somewhat. This may bring a brief period
of near critical fire weather conditions in the far southwest.
Confidence isn`t high enough for any fire products at this time.
Meanwhile, along this warm front in the southeast will be some
increased instability and shear, although the surface will be
generally capped. There still could be some elevated
thunderstorms late day through the evening. SPC has now clipped
parts of southeastern ND with a Marginal Risk to account for
this potential. Hail and strong winds will be the main threats
with any isolated storm that develops. Some weak showers could
also develop along a stalled front in the north during the
afternoon Saturday, although the threat for severe weather in
these areas is low. Surface high then moves a weak cold front
through Saturday night. This should diminish the thunderstorm
threat in the southeast, although a lingering low level jet will
provide for some slight PoPs. Otherwise look for lows in the
50s along with a steady easterly wind. Smoke aloft could linger
Saturday through Saturday night. Better mixing in the southwest
could bring this smoke to the surface Saturday. Cooler
temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s, and mainly dry
conditions will then be found for Sunday, along with a steady
easterly wind. These cooler temperatures should bring improved
RH values, limiting the fire weather concerns. A stalled surface
front could eventually bring some showers and thunderstorms,
mainly later Sunday through Sunday night. SPC has clipped the
far south with a Marginal Risk. Most of the instability holds
off until the evening and Sunday night hours, perhaps indicating
some stronger storms at night are possible. Low temperatures
look to maintain in the 50s Sunday night.

Clusters are in fair agreement for zonal flow next week as the
western ridge flattens. Some clusters push a trough extending
from a Hudson Bay low into the area as well. Overall this
pattern looks to support near to below average temperatures
along with near daily chances for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Depending on strength of passing waves in
this zonal flow will greatly depend on rain and rain amount
chances. CSU-MLP also showing at least some isolated severe
chances in the southern half of ND through next week although
these will also greatly depend on these mentioned waves. NBM
showing low to medium chances for a wetting rain each day, and
are somewhat increased later next week especially in the west.
Cooler temperatures could provide for some lower RH values,
which may also help to limit the fire weather concerns through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period.
Northwest flow to begin the 00Z TAF period. Winds diminish this
evening then turn southeast to east Saturday generally 12 knots
or less. Saturday afternoon surface flow becomes more northeast
and increases to 10 to 15 knots over the northern TAF sites.
Smoke aloft is not impacting surface visibilities at this time
so no sfc vsby reductions due to smoke.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...TWH