424
FXUS63 KBIS 061455
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
955 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures are possible again tonight across
  western and northern parts of the state.

- Dry with below average temperatures continue for the first
  half of the week, with highs mostly in the 50s. A slight warm-
  up with highs in the 60s and 70s is then anticipated to close
  out the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Calm and clear conditions are found across western and central
North Dakota this morning. With the sunrise, temperatures have
begun to rapidly climb to above freezing across the forecast
area. Thus, the Freeze Warning will be allowed to expire on time
at 10 AM CDT / 9 AM MDT. Have made some slight adjustments to
the cloud cover along the ND/SD state line this morning, but
otherwise the forecast remain on track at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Temperatures continue to drop below freezing across most of the
area. The latest surface observations and NBM wind data was
loaded into the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Currently there is quasi-zonal flow across North Dakota at the
bottom of a large trough. Moving on shore in the Pacific
Northwest, is a large ridge. At the surface a strong high
pressure center, located in eastern Montana, is influencing the
Northern Plains. Temperatures are currently falling into the 20s
across the state as the surface high pressure is calming winds
and not allowing a blanket of clouds to keep in the radiational
heating. The lowest temperatures are occurring in far
northwestern North Dakota, but freezing temperatures are
possible across the state. For western and central North Dakota,
a Freezing Warning is on going. In the eastern third of the
state a Freeze Advisory is ongoing.

Today through Friday multiple surface high pressures will slide
through the Northern Plains. Aloft, northwest flow will be
dominate until Wednesday when a small ridge moves across. This
will allow Wednesday to be the warmest day of the work week as
slightly warmer 850mb temperatures move in. Wednesday will also
be quite breezy in the central and east. A tight surface
pressure gradient will create south winds to gust around 35mph.
Temperatures will generally remain around the 60s through
Friday. Friday night the pattern aloft changes to southwest
flow, as a strong low and digging trough exist in the western
CONUS. Next weekend as a result could be rainy again. The
current NBM run has slight chances (20%) of rain through Monday.
Temperatures this weekend could be warmer too, looking at highs
possibly in the 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR CIGs and VIS through the period. Winds will gust near 30kts
from the west this afternoon, before calming again at sunset.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Smith
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith