535
FXUS63 KBIS 031224
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
624 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to below normal temperatures today, then warming to
  above normal for most areas through the middle of next week.

- Large spread in temperatures from northeast (colder) to
  southwest (warmer) through the middle of next week.

- Mainly dry weather conditions across western and central North
  Dakota for the next several days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Reduced visibility being reported at most sites this morning
across western and central North Dakota, so opted to go with
areas of fog all locations through 15Z (9AM CST) this morning.
Models are performing poorly regarding the fog. I also opted to
keep a mention of freezing drizzle through 15Z in addition to
the fog. All other forecast elements on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Currently, quasi-static low/upper level pattern across the
region with northwest flow aloft and a surface ridge of high
pressure across south central Canada southeast through eastern
North Dakota. Extensive area of stratus as lower clouds
continue to expand southward in the wake of a mid level embedded
wave and subtle frontal passage. Fog is also accompanying the
stratus deck, currently over northwest and portions of north
central ND. Localized dense fog remains possible, though not
seeing any via ND DOT web cams or sfc obs at the moment. Will
continue to handle any problem areas with a Special Weather
statement for now. Have seen a few obs reporting freezing
drizzle, so will keep this in the forecast through 12Z when
chances decrease thereafter.

Western US upper level ridge now moving into the Rockies will
continue east today and tonight, developing and deamplifying
into the Great Plains by Sunday. This pattern change will allow
milder air to spread east across the Dakotas, with a warm front
into western ND Sunday, then across central ND Sun night. An
embedded S/WV moving through the western and central Dakotas
Sat night through Sun morning still looks to bring a period of
light precipitation chances, with CAMs still favoring the north
along the Canadian border. Kept POPs low due to the uncertainty
of this occurring, but any moisture would come in the form of
light freezing rain/mixed precip considering warm temperatures
aloft spreading east over sfc air temperatures in the teens.
Opted to increase POPs here from the NBM to maintain forecast
consistency.

A quasi-zonal flow is favored through the middle of next week,
with temperatures averaging above normal and only minimal
chances for any precipitation. NBM is dry, though any
disturbance moving through aloft could generate light
precipitation. As we move into the later portions of next week,
ensembles depict a progressive long wave trough amplifying over
the western CONUS and developing east into the Great Plains.
Initially a split flow pattern is favored, then models diverge
with the EC members maintaining a split flow while GEFS members
support a strong southern stream trough. Either solution doesn`t
bring any impactful weather to the Northern Plains, other than
temperatures trending briefly cooler by the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Low stratus remains across western and central North Dakota to
begin the 12Z TAF period. Will lean on the pessimistic side and
maintain stratus through the forecast period, though should see
some improvement to ceilings this afternoon and most terminals.
Areas of fog as well this morning, expected to improve after
15Z. Expect a deterioration in conditions as we head into this
evening considering we`re not changing the current airmass till
Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH