703
FXUS63 KBIS 110306
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1006 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for thunderstorms
  through tonight. An isolated severe storm is possible, mainly
  in the south.

- Showers and thunderstorms could return again Tuesday through
  Tuesday nigh. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
  possible, especially in the south.

- Near average temperatures through Tuesday, with a cooling
  trend then expected through the end of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A 300 mb jet is kicking off more convection across the west
south of Dickinson. There is still plenty of MLCAPE and shear to
sustain strong to severe storm, however CIN has increased and
could hinder storm development. No updates are needed at this
time.

UPDATE
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A 300 mb jet streak continues to lift convection north I-94.
However, instability continues to decrease across the state.
There is a cumulus field forming in the southwest near the
surface wind field which is converging over Bowman county. This
is where most of the instability is with ample shear, but the
boundary storms are firing around continues to push southward
out of the state. So if storms do fire they will likely dive
southeast into south Dakota. CIN will also increase as
temperatures decrease which could hinder convection. No major
updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on
track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Stalled frontal boundary remains across the south, while a plume
of low level moisture extends from central to northeastern
portions. Overall abundant instability will be found across the
southern half of the state this evening, possibly becoming
uncapped, at least briefly. Shear will also remain high tonight
as a decent jet remains aloft. The limiting factor will be the
lift mechanism for tonight. Surface boundary combined with a
weak upper level wave could be enough to produce at least some
isolated thunderstorms. Although the better lift and moisture
may be to our south tonight. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk
for most of southern ND through tonight to account for this
isolated conditional severe weather threat. Otherwise look for
lows in the 50s tonight. Increased low level moisture combined
with some light winds could bring some fog tonight, especially
in the southwest. More showers and thunderstorms could return on
Tuesday as this boundary lingers. Inverted surface trough moves
more into western ND Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile high amounts
of instability and shear also look to be found. Instability may
even be uncapped by mid afternoon Tuesday. CAMs consistently
showing storms firing ahead of the surface trough as a result
and moving from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Shear and instability will be high enough for golf ball sized
hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Depending how the shear vector
sets up, multi cluster to supercell storm mode is possible. If
supercell storm mode materializes then perhaps some larger hail
is possible. Tornado threat both tonight through Tuesday night
also looks low as LCLs are high and hodographs are not quite
curved enough. Overall SPC has a Day 2 Marginal to Slight Risk
for Tuesday to account for a potentially more widespread severe
weather threat. Biggest uncertainty being if the surface trough
provides enough lift for thunderstorm initiation. Otherwise
look for near normal temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the 50s. Light winds and high humidity
values could also see patchy fog return Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday, cooler temperatures look to move into
the area along with near daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms especially across the west and south. CSU-MLP
showing some low chances for isolated severe weather on
Wednesday, as shear remains high yet expect lower instability.
After Wednesday CSU-MLP not showing much for severe weather
chances this week. Today`s models continue to show a more robust
wave and surface low moving through sometime Thursday through
Friday. Increased southerly flow ahead of this wave could also
bring increased PWAT values and perhaps QPF. NBM even showing a
30 to 60 percent chance of at least an inch of liquid in a 24
hour period Thursday night through Friday across much of western
and some of central ND during this time period. Isolated shower
and thunderstorm chances then look to linger into the weekend,
although depending on track of a surface high this could further
lower these chances. Temperatures may increase slightly yet
still remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will continue across the region this evening and
most of tonight. There is a possibility for fog forming along
the North and South Dakota border tonight. Winds will shift to
northeast tonight and back to southerly by tomorrow morning.
Thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon and may be a storm
or two tonight, however confidence is low on timing and
location of storms.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Johnson