746
FXUS63 KBIS 012000
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
300 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures Sunday.

- Windy on Sunday with gusts up to 45 mph.

- Seasonable temperatures for the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Currently aloft, a progressive ridge is moving through the
Dakotas with zonal flow up stream, extending to the Pacific
Ocean. To the east, the stacked low that brought us the rain, is
entering the Ohio River Valley. At the surface, the incoming
impactful low pressure is sitting in southern Alberta with a
warm front across eastern Montana, and a cold front in central
Montana. Ahead of the surface trough that is sitting in Montana,
a cloud shield of upper clouds blankets North Dakota from the
warming sun. Temperatures today will likely not reach the mid
40s like forecast this morning because of this. The warm front
was originally forecast to move into western North Dakota today
and warm temperatures into the upper 50s, but it has since
stalled in Montana.

Overnight that surface low will move east across southern
Canada, bringing the cold front to the east as well. By sunrise
Sunday morning that cold front will be knocking on North
Dakota`s northwestern door. Behind the front, pressure rises
will increase, but not very strong and mainly just in the
northern part of the state. Sunday will be the warmest day as a
push warm air from Chinook winds off the Northern Rockies in
the zonal flow. The cold front looks to enter the state late
morning into the northwest and north central, and begin cooling
temperatures and increasing wind speeds. With the weak pressure
bubble we are expect near but maybe not Advisory winds, around
45 mph. We are less confident in advisory winds with the weaker
pressure bubble, the front earlier in the day, and the EFI
forecast emsamble not confident either. Winds will likely
remain breezy through Monday.

The rest of the week will be zonal flow with a slight
disturbance late week. This could bring chances for rain back to
the region. Temperatures will stay seasonable in the zonal flow
in the 50s, extending our average to above average temperatures.


 &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR through the period. Wind shear is possible across most of
the state overnight and through the morning. Winds will be
breezy from the south today, turning to the west Sunday. Winds
Sunday will likely gust near 35kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith