Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
950
FNUS73 KBIS 160930
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Multi KNRI Rx...NPS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
430 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
This morning, partly cloudy skies can be expected across central
North Dakota, with cloud coverage increasing through the day and
into the evening. After a brief dry period, chances for showers
(roughly 20 to 40%) arrive around 1600, along with a 20% chance for
some thunderstorms. Should any thunderstorms develop near the area,
winds will become gusty and erratic. Showers and thunderstorms will
then dissipate overnight. The prevailing winds through the day today
are expected to be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph, before
shifting to become more westerly by late afternoon. Winds will then
shift again to become more southerly in the late evening hours.
Minimum relative humidity is forecast to be 31 percent, with a high
temperature around 77 degrees. Initially poor smoke dispersal will
increase to very good this afternoon, with a mixing height at peak
heating around 8600 feet.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds. Slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
westerly by late afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 17 mph increasing to 16 to 20 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (105300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65 56 39 39 35 44 59 68 73
Weather cov..... SCH CHC
Weather type.... RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
Temp............52 61 65 69 72 74 75 77 75
RH..............83 60 54 44 38 34 33 31 32
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
20 FT wind spd..2 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.6 8 9 11 12 13 13 14 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.3 3.2 5.2 7.0 8.1 8.6 8.1 7.8
Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.9 12 13 15 17 20 20 18 16
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..6 13 36 68 105 138 146 130 109
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms, decreasing overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2200, then 2 until 0200, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
southerly by late evening. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 14 mph shifting to the south 9 to 13
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (67900 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3500 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........72 70 66 72 73 71 76 58 41 23 21 33
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 40 20 10 10 0 0
LAL.............3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
Temp............75 74 70 64 61 58 58 57 56 53 53 53
RH..............33 37 45 56 65 72 72 75 74 83 83 80
20 FT wind dir..W W SW SW S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.13 12 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 11
Mix hgt (kft)...5.7 4.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.W W SW SW S SW S SW S S S S
Transp wind spd.14 13 9 7 9 12 9 12 9 10 12 13
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..68 50 8 4 5 6 5 6 4 5 6 6
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2 until 1600, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 to 10 mph early in the
morning, shifting to the west in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 13 mph shifting to the south 15
to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (94700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........26 8 9 29
Weather cov..... CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 50
LAL.............1 1 1 2
Temp............51 61 77 81
RH..............86 67 37 28
20 FT wind......S 5G10 SW 5G10 SW 7G13 W 9G15
Mix hgt (ft)....500 1100 4700 6200
Transport wind..S 13 SW 10 W 15 S 15
Haines index....6 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..6 10 61 81
$$
Forecaster...BESSON
Requested by...Dan Angelo
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414319.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL daniel_angelo@nps.gov