001
FXUS64 KBMX 040635
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1235 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025

-  No weather impacts are expected through the workweek.

-  Much colder weather is possible by next Monday, as another
   potent system works through the region. Showers and a few
   storms are possible as early as Friday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Monday)
Issued at 1235 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025

Much of the work week will be be tranquil with a warm up through
Friday. The pattern will shift on Friday with an approaching
shortwave. This disturbance will the first of several expected
over the weekend associated with a more amplified long wave trough
moving through. Rain chances will increase into Friday evening,
but total rainfall amounts should remain generally around a
quarter of an inch. This could change closer to the weekend if the
low drops farther south, but that remains to be seen. Expect a
few thunderstorms overnight Friday evening into Saturday morning
but right now models indicate that the intensity will be weakening
as the shortwave moves further away from the parent system.

With a good model agreement still, much colder temperatures
arrive by Monday, with even colder on Tuesday. The deep trough
itself should push into the region during the Monday/Tuesday
timeframe, with the current forecast showing a good representation
of these cooler temperatures. With a strong mid and upper level
air flow, plenty of cold air advection into the region. We will
continue to fine tune this area of the forecast, but right now
there appears to be a least medium to high likelihood that this
will be a fairly widespread freeze of the season.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025

Light winds from the north through the next 12 hours and then
switching to more of an easterly direction after 15z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

It continues to look like MinRH values will settle into the 30-40%
range for the next few days, with no rain chances expected, and
mainly light winds. The pattern will begin to break down closer
to the weekend, with rain chances returning to the forecast by
Friday evening. Otherwise, drought conditions are expected to
persist, with very minimal relief possible the next seven days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  40  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    73  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  72  47  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  73  45  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      75  44  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      72  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  73  43  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        73  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16