144
FXUS64 KBMX 121751
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026

- Persistent Heat: Afternoon high temperatures will continue to
  reach the upper 80s to the middle 90s for much of the next week,
  with heat indices from the middle 90s to above 100 degrees. Take
  extra precautions with any extended afternoon outdoor
  activities.

- Thunderstorms: A brief pattern shift will allow for increased
  shower and thunderstorm activity through today. Some of this
  rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026

Current cloud activity somewhat resembles something post-frontal
given the movement, and clear slot along the Mississippi Delta
region. While no true cold front has moved through the region,
the weak trough overhead has deepened slightly more, allowing for
this SW to NE movement. Given our region`s proximity to this
trough, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected today,
generally moving west to east. Given unseasonably high
precipitable water (PWAT) values, confidence is high that
rainfall rates this afternoon will be moderate to heavy.
Thankfully, severe weather and flash flooding concerns remain
limited, with most of this rain activity remaining nothing more
than beneficial.

Upper-level ridging will quickly build in over the region by
Sunday, returning rain chances to the summertime, diurnally
driven pattern we`ve been stuck in for these many weeks. Due to
the ridge, rain chances will remain low for most of the next week
(<10%), and afternoon highs will quickly begin to rebound into
the low to mid-90s

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again today, as a weak
trough continues to move through the region. Confidence in
coverage is low, but high enough to maintain PROB30 groups at all
terminals through 13/02z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
anticipated for the rest of this TAF period as upper-level
ridging builds in strength.

AMD NOT SKED is appended at AUO due to missing observations.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values are expected to stay between 35-45% through
next week, with very limited rain chances in the forecast past
Monday. While fire weather concerns remain low for now,
increasing drought conditions will push these concerns up by late
next week if significant rainfall does not fall by then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  93  68  96 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    70  90  68  94 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  72  93  71  95 /  30   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  95  71  98 /  20   0   0   0
Calera      71  93  70  95 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      71  91  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
Montgomery  71  93  72  95 /  10  10   0   0
Troy        70  93  70  95 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/