Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
132 FXUS64 KBMX 180623 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1223 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025 - A warming trend will occur this week with near-record highs expected from today through Thursday. - A cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the area on Friday and Saturday, but severe weather is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 1214 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025 Warm air advection will develop today as the stalled front to our south lifts towards the Tennessee Valley in response to an eastward moving surface low near the Ozarks. Winds will shift to the south and 50s dewpoints will return from west to east through the day. As such, it won`t be quite as dry area-wide today, but afternoon RH of 25-35% across the east in addition to occasional gusts up to 20 mph will contribute to a high risk for significant fire potential across the northern and eastern portions of the area. The moisture advection will lead to a decreased risk by this evening. The aforementioned surface low is forecast to track across the Tennessee Valley tonight, and there are low chances for a few passing showers across our northern counties early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the next few days will feature anomalously warm temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s as broad ridging builds over the eastern CONUS. A few areas could reach record values on Wednesday. On Thursday, another shortwave will break off from larger-scale troughing over the Baja coast. This late-week shortwave continues to trend weaker as it propagates across the Four Corners and to the Plains by Friday with another surface low developing over the Ozarks. Upper-level support is forecast to continue weakening as the low tracks east across the Ohio Valley Friday night. We will see increasing rain chances from west to east Friday afternoon into Saturday as a cold front moves through the area, but the disorganized nature of the system and weak instability does not yield much concern in terms of a severe risk. Mild and slightly cooler conditions are expected on Sunday as the front moves east of the area, but guidance suggests the pattern will remain active as the longwave trough over the Baja begins to shift eastward early next week. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025 A dry warm front will lift north through the area today which will cause surface winds to take on more of a southerly heading by late morning. VFR conditions are expected to continue, but it may be breezy at times this afternoon with speeds of 8-10kts and occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Lower ceilings will begin to develop towards the end of this TAF period, but not expecting impacts to develop during this cycle. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Significant fire potential bumps up into the high category today for the northern part of the CWA, mainly due to an increase in wind speed with gusts up to 20 knots as a dry warm front lifts north through the area. However, moisture will increase from west to east through the afternoon which should help decrease fire weather concerns with time. Min RHs remain in the 45-60% range for the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 75 55 80 55 / 0 10 0 0 Anniston 75 58 79 57 / 0 10 0 0 Birmingham 76 60 79 59 / 0 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 79 60 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 79 58 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 76 56 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 79 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 78 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86/Martin AVIATION...86/Martin