850
FXUS64 KBMX 231705
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1105 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with a level
   1 out of 5 risk for a couple severe thunderstorms.

 - Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

Early this week:

A shortwave ridge approaches today and quickly scoots by on
Monday, resulting in tame weather conditions. Northerly flow
behind Saturday`s frontal passage will promote relatively mild
temperatures today compared to yesterday`s record highs.
Southerly flow kicks back in on Monday, once again increasing our
margin above seasonal normals.

Tuesday`s active weather:

A pronounced trough over the Desert Southwest today is forecast to
become more broad by the time it swings by our region. A key item
is that through the course of this evolution, its axis of forcing
quickly ejects to the northeast. This should leave us with a bit
of a disjointed setup in terms of severe weather; however, a
sheared wind profile is forecast to envelop the region with the
prospect for at least a weakly unstable air mass, so its worth
some attention.

Forecast models suggest the initial wave of showers and
thunderstorms should arrive across northwest Alabama around
midnight. Though the trough axis would be at its most favorable
proximity at this time, in the absence of appreciable warm
advection to overcome boundary layer cooling, surface-based
instability is shown to be nil. Thunderstorms could still occur,
though, due to weak instability aloft, but the severe risk would
be low in this environment.

Showers and thunderstorms will advance across the rest of central
Alabama through the course of Tuesday. Cloudiness plus the
anticipated coverage and reoccurring nature of activity may keep
surface-based instability fairly modest; combined with veering
surface and low-level flow, and the main low-level jet corridor
pulling away, the severe risk looks to remain low at this time.
Still, there will be ample speed shear so we`ll have to closely
monitor other environmental parameters.

Showers and thunderstorms should draw to a close early Wednesday
morning with variable cloudiness and a northwest breeze through
the day. A chillier air mass will be inbound from the northwest,
arriving Wednesday night.

Late week:

High pressure will be in control on Thursday and Friday, featuring
clear weather and cold mornings/and cool to mild afternoons.

The weekend:

High pressure will move to the east on Saturday. A broad
troughing pattern across the western CONUS will send a series of
shortwaves eastward. If the faster model solutions are correct, we
could see rain return for the second-half of the weekend.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

Some stubborn MVFR clouds remain across the north, but should
erode between 18/19z. There will be some patchy river/bodies of
water fog tonight, so included at TCL and MGM. With the easterly
flow we could potentially see some low level clouds in at AUO as
well, so included at least MVFR here and will need to monitor to
see if trends lower. Any fog/low clouds will erode by 15z on
Monday.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRHs are forecast to remain well above critical thresholds over
the next several days. Relatively low MinRHs look to return late
next week, from Thanksgiving to Saturday. Light winds are forecast
through Monday, becoming closer to 10 mph with the potential for
gusts near 20 mph from the south on Tuesday and northwest on
Wednesday, the light once again later in the week.

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
and Tuesday night, perhaps some lingering activity into early
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  42  74  56 /   0   0   0  50
Anniston    71  46  75  58 /   0   0   0  40
Birmingham  69  49  74  59 /   0   0   0  60
Tuscaloosa  72  49  76  60 /   0   0   0  60
Calera      74  48  77  58 /   0   0   0  50
Auburn      74  53  76  59 /   0   0   0  20
Montgomery  75  51  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
Troy        74  51  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89
AVIATION...16