565
FXUS64 KBMX 190654
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
154 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026

- Heat: Major HeatRisk is expected to persist through the middle
  of the workweek.  Heat indices are forecast between 103 to 109
  degrees. A Heat Advisory is now in effect for portions of
  central Alabama through Wednesday.

- Severe Storms: A marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe
  thunderstorms is forecast for areas generally near and west of
  Interstate 65 today from 2 pm through 10 pm. Damaging winds are
  the primary risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026

Some high-resolution guidance depicts the expected mesoscale
convective system that affects the Mid-South region to our
northwest to migrate southeast and affect the western portions of
the area this afternoon through the evening hours. Hot
temperatures along with persistent high humidity will result in
strong surface-based instability while some drier air aloft will
create favorable wet microburst conditions that will favor
damaging winds being the primary risk with the heavier activity.
Grids have been updated to reflect this potential with risk
graphics in process of being created and disseminated.

05

Previous Discussion:

By tomorrow, the apex of the upper-level ridge will have moved
west, planting itself near the Four Corners. However, this ridge
will remain slightly suppressed for the next 48-hours, keeping
the trough over the Midwest north of the state. Because of that,
afternoon Heat Index values will continue to meet Heat Advisory
criteria for portions of our area, with one remaining in effect
through tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is high that we`ll need
another Heat Advisory for some locations on Thursday, but this
should be the last one needed before the upper-level pattern
really begins to shift.

By early Friday morning, a longwave trough will begin to take
shape over Quebec and Ontario, deepening the trough situated over
the Midwest. This trough should start to infiltrate the Tennessee
River Valley by Friday afternoon, bringing along with it
increased shower and thunderstorm chances. Given the location of
this trough, organized rain chances should stay in the forecast
through the weekend, before it shifts to the east come Monday.
This shift will allow for drier air to filter back into the area,
allowing for peak heat index values to remain below advisory
thresholds into the start of the new workweek.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026

After late evening convection affected portions of the southern
terminals, expect decreasing clouds through the pre-dawn hours
with VFR conditions prevailing areawide. Scattered cumulus
development is expected by early afternoon Wednesday but chances
for afternoon and evening showers and storms will be very low near
and around all sites in the forecast area.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will generally range between 35 and 45% the next few
days, before slowly climbing into the weekend ahead of increasing
rain chances. Winds will remain light the next few days, before
increasing into the weekend as well. Fire weather concerns are
currently low, but they will start to increase by Monday no
meaningful rainfall occurs with this weekend`s system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     97  73  97  73 /   0   0  30  30
Anniston    94  72  95  72 /   0   0  30  30
Birmingham  95  75  96  75 /  20   0  30  40
Tuscaloosa  99  76  99  75 /  30  20  30  30
Calera      96  74  97  74 /  20  10  30  30
Auburn      93  74  94  75 /   0   0  30  30
Montgomery  97  75  99  74 /  20  10  20  30
Troy        96  73  98  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-
Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Shelby-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05