732
FXUS64 KBMX 031741
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1141 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025

-  No weather impacts are expected through the workweek.

-  Much colder weather is possible by next Monday, as another
   potent system works through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025

The weather story for the next several days will essentially be
"Very nice weather."

Zonal flow aloft will settle in across the region by early Tuesday
morning, with the surface high pressure expanding shortly after
that. In turn, temperatures will slowly begin to climb, with highs
back to a more seasonable feel (or slightly above) by Thursday.
Overnight lows will climb as well, with low sneaking back into the
upper-40s and low-50s by Friday morning. Given the dry airmass, rain
chances and cloud cover will both be limited, allowing for sunny
skies and light winds. Perfect early Fall weather.

Now, as we get into the weekend proper, the pattern will begin to
shift once more. A series of shortwave troughs will work into, or
near the region ahead a another beefy longwave trough. Rain chances
will increase into Friday evening, but total rainfall amounts seem
mostly limited. This is because the low pressure and cold front
remain over the Midwest, with us on the tail end. This could change
closer to the weekend if the low drops farther south, but that
remains to be seen.

What guidance does have a good handle on are much colder
temperatures returning by Monday, with even colder weather possible
outside of the forecast period. The deep trough itself should push
into the region during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, with the
current forecast already resembling some of these cooler
temperatures. 850mb winds will be pushing 40 knots at times,
allowing for plenty of cold air advection into the region. While it
remains to be seen *just* how cold we get, if the forecast remains
on track, we could be looking at our first widespread freeze of the
season.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

It continues to look like MinRH values will settle into the 30-40%
range for the next few days, with no rain chances expected, and
mainly light winds. However, the pattern will begin to break down
closer to the weekend, with rain chances returning to the forecast.
Otherwise, drought conditions are expected to persist, with very
minimal relief possible the next seven days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  38  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    64  39  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  62  42  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  65  41  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      66  40  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      65  44  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  66  40  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        65  40  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/