614
FXUS64 KBMX 181731
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1231 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

Tranquil but hot and dry weather will be the story throughout the
short-term period. The very broad upper level ridge centered over
the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to build, with upper level
heights increasing across the southern Appalachian states. Dry air
has advected westward, especially evident just above 700mb as
measured by the 12z KBMX sounding. No convective development is
expected today as a result, with a more comfortable easterly flow
at the surface. The dry air aloft is mixing to the surface in some
locations, dropping dewpoints down into the 50s. In most cases,
dewpoint observations are in the low to mid 60s with scattered to
broken fair weather cumulus. Highs remain on track to top out in
the lower 90s in most locations with easterly winds between 10 and
15mph. Partly cloudy skies can be expected tonight, with mostly
high clouds streaming across the region with lows in the lower
70s. Wednesday is expected to be a rinse and repeat forecast, as
the drier easterly flow continues with no rain chances.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

A 500 mb ridge over the Mid-Atlantic region will begin migrating
southwestward on Thursday. Deep-layer easterlies south of this
ridge will provide a fetch of relatively dry air through Friday
with PWAT values in the 1-1.5 inch range. As the 500 mb ridge
moves over Deep South, the moderating effects of easterly flow
will wane as low- level flow weakens. Temperatures are expected
to upward from the 89-92 degree range on Thursday, to the mid 90s
for Friday through Sunday.

Meanwhile, enhanced moisture associated with a weakening tropical
wave may arrive in South Georgia and the Florida Panhandle and
possibly into Southeast Alabama. Any showers and storms on
Saturday should be isolated and confined to the southeastern part
of our area. Slightly greater coverage of diurnal convection may
occur on Sunday as southeasterly flow contributes to moisture
advection. Though there is disagreement on the mid-level pattern
on Monday, models are in general agreement on weak height falls
and moistening of the atmosphere across the Deep South. As a
result, showers and storms could become more numerous on Monday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Easterly
surface winds between 10 and 15 knots will continue this afternoon
diminishing overnight. Very similar conditions are expected
through the day on Wednesday.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will return today through Friday as easterly
winds bring drier air to the region. This will lead to a
downtrend in RH values into the 35 to 45 percent range each day.
Easterly 20 ft winds will range from 7 to 12 mph through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  69  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    91  71  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  91  74  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  74  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      92  73  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      89  71  88  70 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  90  73  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        90  71  90  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...56/GDG