289
FXUS64 KBMX 040649
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
149 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 132 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026

- Rain: Showers and storms remain in the forecast through today.
  Rainfall amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across
  the southern sections of the region, with locally higher
  possible.

- Seasonable Weather: Seasonable temperatures begin on Tuesday and
  persist into the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026

Over the last 24-hours, there has been an unfortunate and
substantial shift in the forecast, resulting in a dramatic
decrease in previously forecasted rainfall amounts. Previously,
the disturbance moving inland from the Gulf was expected to
briefly move along the MS/AL state line, before taking a hard
pivot east. It was this brief period of north movement that was
going to allow for plenty of interaction along the front,
resulting in the widespread 2+ inches of rainfall. Now, this
disturbance is favoring a direct E/NE movement, moving along the
FL coastline before working inland once the front has pushed
through most of the state. Because of this, the main axis for
higher rainfall amounts continues to shift south, since the bulk
of the tropical influence will stay south as well. At this time,
the main corridor for 2+ inches of rain remains along and south
of I-85. Even this is on the northern fringe of the tropical
disturbance, and rainfall totals may creep down here as well.
North of I-85, the bulk of the rainfall today will fall along, or
slightly ahead of the cold front, with rainfall totals expected
to amount to near an inch or less.

Another slight shift in the forecast are temperatures for next
week. The low pressure over the Midwest has also taken a more
eastward track, meaning that the trough won`t dig as far south as
previously expected. The cold front will quickly retrograde north,
allowing for highs to stabilize in the upper-70s east, to
upper-80s west. Overnight lows on the other hand are still
expected to fall into a more seasonal feel, as cooler air filters
down the Appalachian Mountains, with lows generally ranging in the
50s.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026

All sites are currently VFR, but conditions will deteriorate to
MVFR between 9-12z as low level moisture increases and SHRAs
develop and become widespread today ahead of a surface front.
Most sites are likely to deteriorate further to IFR from 10-15z.
TS probability is low and will leave out a mention ATTM. A few
sites may improve back to MVFR during the afternoon but shout go
back down to IFR after sunset. Winds are expected to remain light
with this system.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southerly flow through the weekend, bringing higher rain chances.
Broadly, the area will see around 1 inch of rain by Sunday night.
Overall, there is roughly a 70% chance of seeing at least 1 inch
of rainfall across Central Alabama, with lower probabilities for
higher totals. Drier and cooler air returns on Tuesday and
persists through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     79  63  84  56 /  80  40  10   0
Anniston    78  65  83  59 /  90  50  10   0
Birmingham  79  65  84  59 /  80  40  10   0
Tuscaloosa  82  66  88  60 /  80  40  10   0
Calera      79  67  84  62 /  90  50  10   0
Auburn      76  67  79  65 /  90  80  20  10
Montgomery  78  67  82  65 /  90  80  20  10
Troy        77  66  80  64 /  90  80  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08