Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
956 FXUS64 KBMX 281655 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1155 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025 Rain chances will increase over the course of this short-term, as a series of weak disturbances ride along the stalled frontal boundary. The best rain chances are currently in our SW zones, as the front is currently oriented from the NW to the SE, north of these areas. However, this front will begin to ebb and flow into the weekend, allowing for the rain chances to shift. Due to the increased cloud cover and some lingering cold air advection, temperatures will continue to run below average. Highs on Friday will range in the upper-70s to low-80s, with overnight lows ranging in the low to mid-60s. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025 Rain chances will continue through the weekend, with the best rain chances continuing to mirror the placement of the frontal boundary. However, this boundary should become much more diffuse by the start of the new workweek, allowing for the rain chances to become less organized. Temperatures will also begin to "rebound" by next week, as the trough overhead becomes cut off, keeping to cooler air to our north. Highs should return to the mid to upper-80s by the middle of the week. While not in the forecast period yet, long-range guidance is already in decent agreement on a beast of a longwave trough working through the Midwest by next weekend. Given the upper-level support, this trough and cold front could easily push into the region around next weekend as well. If it materializes, we could be looking at some of the coldest air of the season by the time it moves through. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025 Low clouds and rain are slowly moving into the region, with most terminals carrying PROB30 groups for SHRA later this evening and overnight. There is still some uncertainty regarding overall cloud cover, so I have generally prevailed VFR CIGS through the entire TAF period. With that being said, drops into MVFR CIGS and additional low cloud development remains possible. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will begin to increase by tomorrow, as a disturbance moves into the region. This disturbance is one of many, so rain chances will remain in the forecast through the weekend. Many locations will see between a half an inch, and an inch of rain. Mixing Heights will be reduced as well due to the increased cloud cover. Thankfully, do to the rain chances and limited lightning concerns, the fire weather threat remains little to none at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 82 61 85 64 / 10 20 20 30 Anniston 82 62 83 65 / 10 20 30 40 Birmingham 82 65 83 66 / 10 30 40 40 Tuscaloosa 81 65 80 67 / 30 40 50 40 Calera 81 64 80 66 / 20 40 50 50 Auburn 83 66 80 67 / 10 20 50 50 Montgomery 85 66 81 67 / 20 30 60 50 Troy 85 66 80 67 / 10 30 60 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM.../44/ LONG TERM..../44/ AVIATION.../44/