240
FXUS64 KBMX 142315
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
515 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025

 - High pressure will keep rain chances low and promote a warming
   trend through mid next week.

 - Our next rain chances look to arrive at the end of next week
   yet significant uncertainty remains in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 955 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025

High pressure will remain the dominant feature through early next
week. Today, with surface high pressure centered over Alabama,
clear skies and calm winds will prevail allowing temps to rise
into the mid to high 70s. The weekend will see only a slight
variation in the pattern as a weak low pressure moves through the
Great Lakes region with an attached weak front passing through
early next week. Ahead of the frontal passage, surface winds will
pick up from the SW with breezy conditions area wide both Saturday
and Sunday along the western periphery of high pressure. The SW
winds will effectively transport Gulf moisture into the region
with dew points steadily increasing through the weekend, nearing
60 degrees. High temperatures will be able to take advantage of
the additional WAA from the Gulf and rise into the mid to high 70s
each day with a few urban locations in southern Alabama having a
shot at hitting 80 degrees.

The front looks to enter the area late Monday into Tuesday
prompting low rain chances for areas north of Birmingham. While
the front looks to weaken significantly and stall over the TN
Valley, it looks to remain far enough north to dissuade any
prolonged rain chances for the local forecast area. Thus, highs
for early next week will remain in the mid 70s to low 80s with
minimal rain chances. Our attention will then switch to an
approaching low pressure system moving east off the Pacific
Coast. This low pressure system looks to be our next chance of
meaningful rain and potentially some storms however long range
models have yet to resolve timing and intensity of the system. As
such, blended guidance was maintained with medium chances for rain
reentering the forecast on Thursday. Ahead of this, broken to
overcast conditions look to prevail across the area as we maintain
cloud cover both from the stalled frontal boundary to our north
and from the approaching low pressure system to our west. Thanks
to southerly winds however this will not have an impact on our
temperatures which will remain in the 70s and low 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025

VFR conditions are forecast tonight and Saturday. Generally calm
winds tonight will become southwest from ~15z Saturday, averaging
between 7-11 knots.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With no rain chances the next two days and RH above 30%, the most
impactful fire weather parameter will be winds. Through the
weekend winds will pick up from he WSW with sustained winds near
10 MPH with gusts up to 18 MPH both Saturday and Sunday. Wind will
veer to the NNW Sunday afternoon and decrease in speed by Sunday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     42  76  53  75 /   0   0  10   0
Anniston    46  76  53  75 /   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  49  75  56  75 /   0   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  48  78  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      46  78  53  78 /   0   0  10   0
Auburn      46  75  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  44  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        43  77  51  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAD
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite