421
FXUS64 KBMX 011738
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1238 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

-  Below average temperatures are expected to continue through
   Monday, but will be replaced with a warm and dry pattern by
   Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Very pleasant weather is expected for the rest of the day, as clouds
will generally start to increase later this evening. Rain chances
will also increase, as the outer edges of the approaching trough
start to skirt our north zones. Unfortunately, measurable rainfall
is going to be limited to these areas, with very little rainfall
expected through Sunday evening.

The weather story for the next few days will remain the reinforcing
shot of cold air this next system will bring, as lows into Monday
will drop back down into the low-30s and 40s. Additional frost
development will be possible, but the overall scope will depend on
how quickly the clouds clear. Regardless, we will likely be
evaluating the need for an additional Frost Advisory come this time
tomorrow.

Thankfully, the upper-level pattern will quickly shift into a more
zonal pattern, with a ridge building in at the surface. This will
allow for temperatures to begin to warm as early as Tuesday, with
highs returning to a more seasonable feel. Lows will begin to
climb as well, with a gradual warm up putting them back into the
mid-40s by the middle of the week.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As the next system works into the region, MinRH values will slightly
rebound through Monday, before dropping back into the mid 30-40%
range by Tuesday. Here is where they should mostly remain into next
weekend, as no additional rain chances are expected for most of next
week. Because of this, drought conditions are expected to continue,
potentially expanding given the lack of additional rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     43  59  36  65 /  10  50  10   0
Anniston    44  61  39  65 /  10  40  20   0
Birmingham  46  59  39  65 /  10  40  10   0
Tuscaloosa  45  61  39  67 /  10  20  10   0
Calera      45  62  39  66 /  10  30  10   0
Auburn      45  66  42  66 /   0  20  20   0
Montgomery  44  68  39  69 /  10  20  20   0
Troy        42  68  39  67 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/