Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
785 FXUS64 KBMX 190004 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 704 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025 The weather story for the short-term will begin to shift, as the apex of the ridge builds back in over Florida by tonight. This will continue to shift the lingering rain chances from Invest 93L to the west, and allow for warmer temperatures to return in the east. This trend will continue through the weekend, with the ridge expected to take over as the dominant feature sometime in the long-term. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow will continue to be on the super muggy side, with lows only dropping into the low and mid-70s. Afternoon highs on Saturday will be split between the low and mid- 90s, with rain and cloud cover being the deciding factor between "hot" and "somewhat hotter." /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025 Uncertainty remains in the long-term regarding how the remnants of Invest 93L will interact with the building ridge. Does it become completely diffuse? Or does it stay somewhat sandwiched between the zonal flow over the Midwest? At any rate, that uncertainty translates into the afternoon rain chances. I have once again remained status-quo with the current guidance, but if the ridge is able to firmly establish itself, then rain chances in the long-term should decrease. Some uncertainty also remains on upcoming scope of high- temperatures. This time yesterday, it appears as if we would need heat headlines by Tuesday, but now that could be as early as Sunday. In general, it`s safe to say that temperatures are going to rise by next week, it`s just a difference in 48-72 hours. Until then, it`s still very safe to say that an extended period of heat headlines will begin sometime in the near future. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025 VFR conditions will persist overnight as shower activity decreases with time. Expect cumulus to redevelop by late Saturday morning with chances for scattered showers and some thunderstorms by late morning, continuing beyond this forecast cycle. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Upper-level ridging will begin to build back in by next week, which could slowly begin to push MinRH values down. Afternoon rain chances may also end up diminishing during this timeframe as well. While there are still no fire weather concerns yet, an extended period such as this could quickly dry things out and reintroduce drought conditions across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 91 72 92 / 30 50 20 40 Anniston 73 90 72 90 / 30 40 10 40 Birmingham 74 91 74 92 / 30 40 10 40 Tuscaloosa 74 91 75 93 / 30 40 10 30 Calera 74 90 74 91 / 30 40 10 30 Auburn 73 91 75 92 / 10 30 10 30 Montgomery 74 93 75 94 / 20 30 10 20 Troy 72 92 73 94 / 10 30 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...05