516
FXUS64 KBMX 110334
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1034 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026

- Major Heat Risk: High confidence in dangerous heat with heat
  indices reaching 105-110F daily from Wednesday through the
  weekend; Heat Advisories are expected

- Convection Trends: A typical summertime pattern continues with
  20-40% rain chances through Wednesday, decreasing thereafter as
  the upper ridge strengthens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026

Water vapor imagery this evening reveals upper level ridging
beginning to take shape across the southeast. An upper level
trough can be seen well to our north, which is helping guide an
area of convection just south of the Great Lakes. The weak ridge
axis in place across the south will slowly shift west over the
next several days, eventually expanding and strengthening late
this week and into the weekend. This will allow for temps to
steadily warm up through the week with highs eventually settling
into the mid to upper 90s for most of Central Alabama. Continued
humid conditions combined with these temps will bump heat indices
into the 105-110 degree range. Heat Advisories will be likely
daily starting Wednesday. The latest ECMWF EFI hints at unusually
warm temperatures for us over the weekend, generally 10 degrees
above normal for mid August. This will lead to a major heat risk
for Central Alabama late this week and over the weekend.

This pattern will promote a typically summertime convection
regime over the next couple of days with low to moderate (20-40%)
chances for showers and storms through Wednesday. Beyond
Wednesday, we will see reduced rain chances as the upper ridge
takes control and slightly drier air spread across the region.

Otherwise, patchy fog is expected early Tuesday morning as dew
point depressions narrow and condensation pressure deficits call
to 2-5mb. Locations that received rain earlier this afternoon and
evening will be most likely to see reduced visibilities out the
door Tuesday morning.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals.
Convection has remained minimal across the region so far this
evening. Opted to leave the PROB30s for TSRA in for the next
couple of hours to account for a low chance for development.
Maintained a TEMPO group for MVFR vis around sunrise for all
sites. Other than brief restrictions Tuesday morning, VFR
prevails through this TAF cycle.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and humid conditions will help keep MinRH values generally
above 50% through the work week. Slightly drier air arrives over
the weekend, bringing minRHs down into the 40-50% range. However,
winds will remain light. Low to moderate rain chances continue
through the week. Elevated fire weather concerns will remain low
over the next seven days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  92  74  93 /  20  40  10  50
Anniston    73  90  73  90 /  20  40  10  40
Birmingham  75  91  75  92 /  20  30  10  40
Tuscaloosa  75  92  75  94 /  20  20  10  30
Calera      74  91  74  93 /  20  30  10  40
Auburn      74  88  75  89 /  10  40  10  40
Montgomery  75  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  30
Troy        73  93  74  93 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo