Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
046 FXUS65 KBOI 261637 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 937 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025 .DISCUSSION...As the warm front moves northeastward precipitation will steadily decrease. Skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast, temperatures in the warmer airmass will be 5 degrees above normal today and 10 degrees above normal. As flow aloft remains strong, moisture flux remains even behind the front, supporting elevated precipitation potential this evening. Snow levels will be much higher than this morning at 6-8 kft MSL, so most precip will fall as rain, with only mountains seeing a few tenths of an inch of snowfall. While models still indicate isolated freezing rain is possible in the West-Central Mtns tonight, warming temps and lack of obs of freezing rain this morning indicate the risk is low. As the moisture plume follows the warm front northeastward, drier air moves in for Thanksgiving, bringing partly cloudy to clear skies for most of the day. Thursday night through Friday morning the cold front associated with the overarching low pressure system will move through, lowering temps and snow levels and bringing more precipitation to the area through Friday. The current forecast captures everything well, so no updates were made. && .AVIATION...VFR in valleys. Areas of MVFR/IFR in mountains due to low ceilings obscuring mountains expected through this afternoon. Another round of light precipitation will spread into the area north of a KBKE-BOI-KSUN line after 22Z with snow levels around 5000 ft MSL. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to NW 20-35 kt. KBOI...VFR. Light precipitation expected today in the vicinity of the terminal, mainly over the mountains north of KBOI, with about a 20% chance of a brief period of rain at the terminal. Surface winds: Light and variable less than 5 kts. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Light warm-frontal pcpn across northern zones will gradually decrease today as the warm front moves northeastward, with pcpn changing to rain up to 6000 feet MSL behind the front. Due to lack of wind, snow may change first to freezing rain in the colder valleys before changing to plain rain in Baker County this morning, as indicated by several models. Any freezing rain should be localized and cause only minimal impact. The warm front should be north of our CWA by afternoon with rain decreasing or ending and milder air coming in. Skies will stay cloudy through the day and this evening, then clear overnight from the southwest. Patchy fog will form in the moist northern valleys Thanksgiving morning but most of Thanksgiving Day should be dry and mild with high temps in the 40s in the mountains to mid 50s in the lower southern valleys. The sytem`s cold front will pass through Thursday night, with light rain and snow again in northern areas but unlikely in the south. Snow level will lower to near 4500 feet as the cold front passes, with an inch or two accumulation in northern mountains. Friday will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler (mostly at higher elevations) with brisk northwest winds, and a 30-60 percent chance of rain and snow showers in northern areas but less than 30 percent chance in the south. Friday night will be clearing and 5 to 8 degrees colder than Thursday night, but persistent light northwest winds will prevent even further cooling. LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The back end of a longwave trough will remain over the area early Saturday, favoring a cooldown into the lower/mid 40s for lower elevations and lower snow levels in the 3000-4000 ft range. Later Saturday and early Sunday will see an embedded shortwave trough briefly dig into the region, favoring the return of a 20-30% chance of precipitation across the area. There are model differences over the magnitude of the moisture advection brought about by this trough. A large scale ridge will build into the area Sunday through Monday, favoring dry conditions but hardly a warming trend, as peak valley temperatures are projected to remain in the lower 40s on both days. The ridging will quickly be broken down by a more potent shortwave trough digging into the area early Tuesday. This fast-moving system will tentatively bring a 30-50% chance of precipitation mainly over higher elevations Tuesday through early Wednesday. Peak lower elevation temperatures are expected to remain in the lower/mid 40s and minimum nighttime temperatures in the upper 20s Tuesday and Wednesday. Relatively low snow levels in the 2000-3000 ft range Tuesday through Wednesday should favor snowfall in the mountains for both days. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION.....JB SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JY