Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
891 FXUS65 KBOI 241635 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 935 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 .DISCUSSION... A weak shortwave trough and associated cold front are moving across the forecast area this morning. Light showers showing up on radar (mainly north of Interstate 84) while web cams across the north show wet roads and light snow accumulation at higher elevations. The cold front will move south and east of the area this afternoon with decreasing clouds and breezy west-northwest winds behind the front. Strongest winds will be in the Mountain Home and western Magic Valley area. Any lingering stratus and fog in the lower Treasure Valley this morning will scour out behind the front. No updates to the current forecast planned this morning. && .AVIATION...VFR/MVFR ceilings this morning with isolated showers moving W-E. Ceilings rising to VFR and precipitation ending by early afternoon. Snow levels: 3-5kft MSL. Surface winds: Becoming NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt this afternoon, strongest winds east of KMOU. Becoming Variable up to 10kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 25-40 kt. KBOI...VFR with decreasing cloud cover. Surface winds: Becoming NW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 22kt this afternoon following a cold front. Variable under 10 kt after Tue/02z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Isolated showers this morning ahead of the cold frontal passage expected to move through the forecast area, from west to east between 4 AM and Noon today. The front, at 2 AM MST, is just west of Burns Baker City and is expected to continue eastward, reaching Boise McCall around 9 AM MST and the Western Magic Valley by Noon. Showers will increase in coverage, especially across Baker Valley into the Central Idaho Mountains, an hour or two before frontal passage. Snow levels will steadily fall from 5500 feet early this morning to between 2500 and 3500 feet by late this evening. Overall, snow accumulations will be light, with less than an inch expected below 6000 feet and up to 2 inches in the mountain peaks. A few stronger showers could produce brief heavy snowfall with the frontal passage later this morning. Little rain is expected in the valley, with most areas seeing less than 0.02 inch. Northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 mph follows the front, with the strongest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected in the Magic Valley this afternoon. The colder airmass behind the front combined with breezy winds will finally bring normal temperatures and completely mix out the valley inversion today. What has been a consistent pattern this November, an upper level ridge of high pressure will once again build over the Pacific Northwest starting Tuesday. This shifts the Pacific moisture plume further north into Northern and Central Idaho on Wednesday, thus limiting precipitation across the area. Baker county through the West Central Mountains have the highest chance for precipitation (50 to 60 percent chance) with snow levels rising between 5000 to 6000 feet. The lower QPF and higher snow levels will limit accumulating snowfall to 1 to 3 inches above 5000 feet, the majority of which will fall Tuesday night into early Wednesday when snow levels are the lowest. LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A large ridge is expected to hang over the region early Thursday, as it gets slowly broken down by an incoming upper trough from SW Canada. There still remains considerable guidance uncertainty over this trough`s behavior and arrival. For now, chances of precipitation (light rain in lower elevations and possible wintry mix in higher elevations) are generally expected from Thursday to Sunday. There is general agreement that the incoming trough pattern will bring a significant cooling trend towards the end of the extended period. Peak lower elevation temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 40s Thursday and Friday, before dropping into the lower to mid 40s Saturday and into the upper 30s Sunday. Snow levels are expected to take on a downward trend from the 5000-6000 ft range Thursday to the 3000-4000 ft range Friday through Saturday, and into the 1000-2000 ft range Sunday through Monday. As such, Sunday will see the highest chances of snowfall, especially over the mountains. Monday will see a large ridge off the Pacific build into the region, bringing a drying trend. Peak lower elevation temperatures will tentatively remain on the cooler side (upper 30s and lower 40s) with snow levels still mostly lingering in the 1000-2000 ft range. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...TL AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JY