991
FXUS65 KBOI 030459
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1059 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot, dry, and windy on Wednesday afternoon with elevated fire
weather conditions in the Owyhee Mountains and in the Magic
Valley.

- Isolated PM showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and   Thursday
across east-central Oregon and west-central Idaho as   a cold front
moves through.

- Mostly dry and breezy this weekend with temperatures swinging from
around 10 degrees above normal on Friday to around 5   degrees below
normal by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/...
Issued 336 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
Warm and dry conditions will continue today with generally light
winds across the forecast area thanks to a ridge of high pressure
lingering through Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave trough will
move through the region on Wednesday evening, bringing a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms primarily north of a Mountain
Home, ID - Burns, OR line. The main hazards with these showers and
thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds up to 35 mph and
lightning. Rainfall amounts will be low with any showers and
thunderstorms that form, generally less than a quarter inch under
the heaviest showers/thunderstorms. This shortwave will also bring a
cold frontal passage to southwest Idaho, with wind gusts up to 40
mph and single digit relative humidity values in the Lower Snake
River Valley during the late afternoon-evening. These hot, dry, and
windy conditions will bring elevated fire weather conditions, with
Red Flag Warnings in effect for fire zones 423, 424, and 426 in
south central Idaho. Temperatures will moderate briefly on Thursday
with breezy northwest winds in the Snake River Valley also keeping
temperatures about ten degrees cooler than Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued 336 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
An intense upper-level low pressure system will move into the
Pacific NW on Friday and gradually move across the international
border through the weekend. As this system moves in, southwesterly
flow aloft will spread over the region, providing a warming and
drying trend on Friday. Temperatures will hover around 10 degrees
above normal on Friday. With the strong low pressure moving east
throughout the weekend, it will cause a cold front to move through
the area. The primary threat with this system will be the winds
gusting widespread 20-35 mph, with the higher terrain and southeast
Oregon seeing gusts 30-40 mph. Current model guidance also
suggests gusts of 30-45 mph through the Snake River Plain late
Saturday afternoon into evening. High temperatures behind the
cold front Saturday and Sunday will drop 10- 15 degrees from
Friday and dip to slightly below normal by Sunday. The trough is
expected to weaken as it moves inland, keeping the area mostly
dry with a 10-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
west-central Idaho mountains and lower chances elsewhere.

For Monday, ensembles favor weak and short-lived upper-level ridging
gradually building, with upper-level troughing again along the
coast. Highs are favored to warm to 5-10 degrees above normal.
Confidence about the forecast is lower Tuesday, with the proximity
and intensity of the trough variable from model to model. Some have
it overhead by Monday afternoon, while some keep it weaker with
slower timing. This difference causes considerable forecast
discrepancy for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Thursday/...
Issued 1037 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms develop across
eastern Oregon late Wed morning, spreading towards west-central
Idaho Wed afternoon. Timing for possible terminal impacts is
after 21Z at KBKE/KBNO, and after 23Z at KONO/KMYL. Areas of
blowing dust possible with outflow winds. Surface winds:
Variable less than 10 kt overnight. Becoming SW 5-15 kt with
gusts to 25 kt, and gusty outflow winds 25-40 kt possible Wed
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 10-25 kt.

KBOI...Mainly VFR. 30% chance of MVFR after 22Z as outflow winds
from nearby showers/thunderstorms may produce blowing dust late
Wed afternoon. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt Wed morning. SW 15 kt
with some gusts to 25 kt by Wed afternoon. Gusty outflow winds
with gusts to 35 kt possible after 03/23Z.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM MDT until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
IDZ423-424 and IDZ426.

OR...None.

&&

$$

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AVIATION.....JR
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....CH