273
FXUS65 KBOI 180207
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
807 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies with decreasing winds for most
folks this evening. Gusts to 25 mph possible in the Baker Valley
extending SE towards Ontario this evening. Otherwise, no
significant weather expected tonight. Current forecast looks
solid and no changes will be made at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: W-NW
5-15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt possible this evening at/near KBKE.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds NW 5-10 kt becoming SE less than 6 kt
after 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A low-amplitude
ridge over the interior West will keep dry conditions in place
through Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will run 3-6
degrees warmer than today, or about 10 degrees above normal. The
ridge axis slips to the east on Thursday, opening up a
southwest aloft. This will bring in elevated moisture, and with
a slightly more unstable air mass. This subtle change will
support afternoon cumulus develop over the mtns with deeper
buildups north and east of McCall. Will also need to watch a
weak upper wave lifting out of CA and into SE Oregon late
Thursday. The dynamics accompanying this feature could support
high-based shower and thunderstorm development along the NV/OR
border, where potential has crept up to 10%. Would expect
this upward trend to continue if the forecast solutions stay on
course with this feature. Given the hot and dry air mass in
place, locally gusty outflow winds would be the main attribute
accompanying showers/storms. After peaking on Wednesday, high
temperatures drop by a few degrees on Thursday.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A cold front will move
through the region on Friday afternoon, bringing breezy winds
and light precipitation to the northern portions of the CWA.
Elevated fire weather conditions with this dry and windy cold
front are the main concern on Friday evening, especially in
lower elevations in Malheur County and near the Nevada border.
Temperatures will plummet on Saturday as a low pressure system
moves through the region this weekend, with valley highs only
scraping the mid 60s-low 70s (about 15-20 degrees below normal).

Intermittent precipitation with a low chance of thunderstorms
and mountain snow will occur with this system as well. Snow
levels will stick around 6500-7500 feet, with up to 6 inches of
fresh snow by Sunday morning in higher elevation mountaintops.
Thunderstorms look to be most likely near the Owyhee Mountains
and the West Central Mountains, but about a 10-20% chance exists
around the region on Saturday.

An upper level trough will linger over the region on Monday,
keeping temperatures below normal. This trough will weaken on
Tuesday, as another Pacific High builds into the region bringing
a return to warm and dry conditions by midweek. Model agreement
remains excellent through early next week, with high forecast
confidence in the weekend pattern change.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SA