610
FXUS65 KBOI 102316
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
516 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, dry, and smokey through Wednesday.

- Around a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms near the
  Idaho/Nevada border on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

- Cold front approaches area on Thursday afternoon.

- Chance of showers/thunderstorms increases Thursday afternoon
  through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/...
Issued 234 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
will continue. However, satellite imagery and some high
resolution forecast models suggest a slight (10 to 15 percent)
chance of isolated thunderstorms near the southern Idaho border
on Tuesday and again Wednesday afternoon. Poor air quality due
to wildfire smoke continues to be an issue as well. In addition
to smoke produced by local fires, westerly transport winds will
continue to bring smoke from numerous large fires in central and
southern Oregon across the forecast area. Recent upper air
soundings indicate better mixing condition each afternoon, but
night time surface based temperature inversions will cap mixing
and allow smoke to settle thickly into most valley locations
again overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued 234 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
weather pattern will bring slightly cooler and wetter weather
for the end of the week. A weak upper level trough will move
into the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday, shifting the high
pressure that brought hot and dry conditions earlier in the week
to the east by Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will advect into
the region from the south, with increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms beginning early Thursday and peaking on Friday
and Saturday. High terrain near the Nevada border and over the
Central Idaho Mountains will see the highest potential for
accumulating precipitation, with a 40-60% chance currently
forecast on Friday and Saturday. Heavy rainfall in these regions
will bring a flash flood threat, especially over steep and
rocky terrain and recent burn scars. Cooler temperatures will
occur from Thursday through Sunday, with highs about 4-6 degrees
below normal through the weekend. Moisture will taper off late
Sunday into Monday, with a ridge building back in over the
Intermountain West, bringing a return to warm and mostly dry
conditions for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday through Wednesday/...
Issued 508 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
Generally VFR with periods of MVFR conditions in wildfire smoke
this evening, primarily over SE Oregon sites. Mtn obscuration
in smoke. High density altitude due to heat through sunset.
Surface winds: W-NW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, then
generally variable less than 10 kt overnight through Tuesday
morning. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with lingering smoke obscuring foothills. Surface
winds: NW 8-12 kt with gusts to around 18 kt this evening, then
variable less than 10 kt overnight through Tuesday morning.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ011-012-014-
     015-029-033.
OR...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for ORZ061.
&&

$$

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AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....SA