401
FXUS65 KBOU 140630
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1130 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow should end by mid morning across for forecast area.

- Dry with above normal temperatures over the weekend and into early
next week.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over
  the southeast plains on Monday, then over most of the eastern
  plains Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1128 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Radars and observations are indicating a few areas light rain
falling over the plains.  There is light snow falling over the
mountains according to cameras, radar and observations.
Temperatures are still in the 40s across the plains this evening,
with mainly 20s in the mountains and lower 30s in the Parks. The
High Resolution models have precipitation ending over the CWA from
northwest to southeast by 12-15Z Saturday morning.

Models are showing upper ridging to move back into the CWA Saturday
with moderate northwesterly flow aloft Saturday and Saturday night.
Zonal flow is progged on Sunday with the upper ridge axis pushing
eastward out of Colorado. The airmass looks dry across the forecast
area Saturday through Monday night, although there will be some
upper level cloudiness in place from time to time.

Temperatures continue to stay above seasonal normals Saturday
through Monday. Highs could warm to around 70 over the plains by
Monday.

For the later days, models still show very strong southwesterly flow
aloft Tuesday. Models have strong west-southwesterly flow aloft for
the CWA Wednesday through Friday, with a mean upper trough axis
staying west of Colorado all three days. Some pieces of energy move
across Colorado, but the entire trough itself doesn`t really push
through the state until Saturday of next week. Also it weakens as it
moves eastward. This system has not had good timing consistence over
the last several model runs.

Moisture is limited mainly to the mountains through the period, with
no periods of deep moisture all four days. Scattered to likely light
snow is progged for the mountains all four days.  For the plains,
temperatures look to be above normal Tuesday, then cool a bit
Wednesday, with near normal readings Thursday and Friday (40s for
highs). The dry conditions will continue over the plains into
Wednesday, with low level downsloping. There could be some limited
pops Wednesday night into Thursday night over the plains, but
nothing significant. There will be fire weather concerns on Tuesday,
with the strong winds expected. Elevated fire weather conditions may
still be an issue the rest of the week even with the cooling
airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1113 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Scattered showers will slowly decrease and come to an end 08-09Z.
Low clouds (1000-3000 foot ceilings) linger a little longer, through
about 12Z. Airmass rapidly dries from north to south 10-14Z with
mostly clear skies and VFR conditons by 12-14Z for the Denver area.
VFR will then prevail the rest of Saturday. Northwest winds to
prevail the next several hours, slowly turning counterclockwise.
Winds possibly end up southwest for short period (13-16Z), before
turning north to northeast for most of Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over
the southeast plains on Monday, then over most of the eastern
plains Tuesday and Wednesday. Humidities will drop into the teens
for during the afternoon hours Sunday through Wednesday. Winds
are not very strong Sunday, but increase a bit over the eastern
plains on Monday. Tuesday`s conditions look to be the most
critical with strong wind gusts up to 50 mph expected by
afternoon. Any fires that start that day would will spread
rapidly.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ034.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ215-216-238>251.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for COZ216-240-241-244>247-249.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...12
FIRE WEATHER...66