294
FXUS61 KBOX 241127
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
727 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving to the Maritimes will bring a few showers
at times and cool temperatures today. Mainly dry conditions
Sunday into Memorial Day with a slow warming trend, but still
below normal temperatures. Temperatures return to more
seasonable levels Tuesday through the end of next week. Our next
chance for rain looks to be sometime late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Cooler temps continue with spotty showers throughout the day.

Some lingering spotty showers early this morning likely develop
into a round of scattered showers later this afternoon as a
shortwave briefly moves through southern New England. Keeping
PoPs slightly elevated across the region today, although most
showers that form will be brief and "hit or miss"... definitely
not expecting a washout. Temps will continue to moderate but
still well below normal, with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Drier and warming for the end of the weekend.

As the low moves further into the Canadian Maritimes, drier NW
flow will be pushing into southern New England. Will likely be
mostly cloudy throughout Sunday, but the dry airmass will allow
for daytime temps to start warming up. Expecting highs in the
mid 60s with gusts around 20mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Plenty of diurnal clouds with below normal temperatures Sunday.
* More sunshine with near normal temperatures expected for
  Memorial Day.
* Other than a spot shower Sunday, mainly dry weather prevails.
* Warming trend begins Tuesday and likely continues into Wednesday
* Next chance of rain around Thursday-Friday, but currently not
  looking like a significant rain event.

Details:

Persistent mid level cutoff finally moves offshore of northern
New England Sunday into Monday. Expecting this to be replaced by
a modest ridge mid week. The steering flow becomes more
complicated and uncertain late next week. Thinking there will be
a mid level trough somewhere from the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes. Thus, the timing and track details of the synoptic
weather features remains in doubt.

Given a surface high pressure moving across New England
Tuesday, favoring a slower arrival timing for any low pressure
late next week. Ensemble data doesn`t indicate any aspects that
are particularly remarkable at this time range. Kept a mention
of showers in the forecast Thursday into Friday, but would not
be surprised by further timing changes with later forecasts.

A modest warming trend starts Sunday and continues into at
least Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday. Slightly below normal
temperatures Sunday should trend to above normal Tuesday.
Expecting we should then linger near to slightly above normal
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z Update...

Becoming increasingly more confident in -SHRA across northern
and interior terminals late this morning into this afternoon...
added PROB30 groups to BOS, BAF, BDL, and BED as exact timing is
still a little unclear.

Today and Tonight...High confidence.

Areas of MVFR cigs this morning improving to VFR this afternoon,
with VFR persisting into tonight. A few showers possible during
the day. WNW wind gusts to 20 kt, up to 25 kt over the Islands.

BOS TAF...Moderate confidence. VFR becoming MVFR around mid day.
Spotty -SHRA after 14Z, but still uncertain on exact timing.

BDL TAF...Moderate confidence. VFR with periods of MVFR cigs.
Likely -SHRA after 14Z, but still uncertain on exact timing.


Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday Night: High confidence.

Gusty W winds today as the low continues to move NE of our
waters. Winds diminish tonight, but seas will take longer to
subside.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/McMinn
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/McMinn
MARINE...Belk/McMinn