723
FXUS61 KBOX 240804
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
304 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions will persist through Saturday, then
turning milder with more seasonable temperatures Sunday into
Tuesday with blustery conditions at times. While a primarily
dry period, nuisance showers remain possible Sunday and
Tuesday. Turning colder behind a cold front Tuesday night into
Wednesday then another clipper low may bring some light snow
sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night. Another round of very
cold and blustery conditions will follow for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNE will be in between shortwaves today with one shortwave
moving to the mid Atlc region and another moving into northern
New Eng. Upper level confluence between these shortwaves along
with left entrance region of strong upper jet will result in
large scale subsidence and dry weather today. Expect lots of
sunshine which will give way to sct-bkn strato-cu this
afternoon. 925 mb temps are similar to Thu so not much change
in daytime temps with highs mostly upper 20s to lower 30s. A
modest W-NW wind 10-15 mph will make it feel a bit colder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Tonight...

High pres builds over the mid Atlc region with ridging extending
northward and approaching New Eng. NW  winds will diminish and
become light which will result in good radiational cooling again
as mainly clear skies expected. Lows will drop into the single
numbers, but 10-15F near the coast.

Saturday...

Upper low over northern New Eng moves to the east followed by
shortwave ridging which will provide another dry day. Sunshine
in the morning will give way to more cloudiness in the afternoon
as mid- high level moisture races in from the west as upper jet
approaches. Low level temps cool a bit so highs will be mostly
25-30F with NW winds turning W-SW in the afternoon as high pres
moves off the mid Atlc coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Benign weather conditions continue Sunday though Tuesday, while a
  primarily dry forecast, nuisance showers are possible during this
  period.

* Periodic west/southwest gusts between 20 and 30 mph are possible
  on Sunday through Tuesday, due to modest 850mb jet.

* Near normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, but the next
  round of colder weather arrives Wednesday through late next week.

No significant changes to the extended forecast as we anticipate
benign weather conditions to end the weekend and continues into the
first-half of next week. Sunday, weak low pressure associated with a
subtle mid-level trough and shortwave cross northern New England. As
mentioned previously, there is not much moisture associated, but the
west/southwest flow aloft may minimally enhance PWATs along southern
coast of New England. Opt`d to include low-end `slight chance` POPs
for from the eastern tip of Long Island, into coastal Rhode Island,
and the south coast of Massachusetts; including the islands and the
south facing shoreline of Cape Cod. Given the WAA, this part of the
CWA the PType would be rain. Though, into the northern Berkshires
enough cold air would support PType of snow. Once again, there is
little moisture associated with this passage, not expecting any
accumulations or impacts. Additionally, a modest 850mb jet of 35 to
40 knots is aloft Sunday into Tuesday, leading to periodic gusts up
to 30 mph from the west/southwest.

As mentioned previously, there are no significant systems on the
horizon, yet. While dry weather will prevail, nuisance snow showers
remain possible into early next week as guidance has signaled the
last few days of weak and moisture starved clippers moving from
northern Canada into northern New England. Overnight guidance does
hint that a mid-week clipper may trend further south and cross
southern New England late Wednesday into early Thursday. Did notice
the 00z run of the GFS showed this clipper phasing with a southern
stream system, which would transport gulf moisture, leading to a
more robust storm. That said, this deterministic run remains as an
outlier, 90th percentile snowfall based off the ensembles are less
than an inch for most locations. Nevertheless, something to watch as
we head into next week, especially if you would like to have more
snow.

Given WAA Sunday, highs recover into the middle and upper 30s, a few
areas along the coast may push 40F. Heading into early next week,
Monday and Tuesday, temperatures are near normal, similar to Sunday.
By mid-week, there are signs that colder air returns and sticks with
us for the remainder of the week, below normal highs and lows, and
perhaps sub-freezing Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...High confidence.

VFR through the period. NW wind around 10 kt today, diminishing
tonight, then becoming W-SW around 10 kt Sat.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...High Confidence.

W-NW wind 10-20 kt through tonight becoming W Sat afternoon with
gusts to 20 kt. Seas below SCA.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas
up to 11 ft.

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
10 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dooley
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...KJC/Dooley
MARINE...KJC/Dooley