103
FXUS64 KBRO 072303
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
503 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 502 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

* Behind a cold front passing this afternoon/evening, expect
  hazardous coastal and marine conditions through Monday.

* Dry weather with fluctuating temperatures are expected through
  the upcoming workweek.

* Adverse to hazardous marine conditions could develop once again
  Friday into next Sunday following the passage of a second cold
  front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Expect a dry, seasonable start to this week. A cold front this
afternoon will lift clouds out of the region, bringing sunny
skies! Behind the front, expect northerly winds and gusts picking
up this evening and overnight to around 20 kts. Low temperatures
Monday morning will be noticeably cooler than todays - about 10
degF cooler, mid 40s in the Ranchlands to low 50s along the coast
and RGV. Dry air behind the front will drastically reduce moisture
(PWATs ~0.5"), leaving very low chances of rain for the coming
week.

Ridging building over the desert southwest will maintain a copacetic
pattern for much of the week with zonal flow aloft. High
temperatures Monday will be noticeably cooler, around 70 across
the board. Tuesday morning will be the chilliest, 40s inland to
around 50 near the coast. Through Thursday, high temperatures
gradually warm into the 80s.

Our focus turns to a cold front expected to pass late this week.
With the drier airmass in place following today`s front, this is
shaping up to be another dry front bringing a welcome cooldown.
There is a large spread in guidance on how much of a cooldown we
can expect, so more details will come as we continue to narrow the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Through 00z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to persist through
the entire 00z TAF cycle, though there could be a few MVFR clouds
around from time to time.

Winds will continue out of the north-northeast with speeds between 5-
15 kts. There could be some gusts up to 20 kts from time to time,
particularly during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Conditions begin to deteriorate Sunday afternoon and evening behind
a dry cold front. Strong northerly winds gusting to near gale and
seas building to rough are expected through Monday morning, with
a Small Craft Advisory in place from 6 PM Sunday through 6 PM
Monday. Monday night, favorable conditions return through the week
with gentle to moderate southerly flow, slight seas, and very low
rain chances. Beginning Friday, conditions deteriorate again with
another cold front bringing elevated wind and seas through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             53  69  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               48  69  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 52  71  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         48  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      61  66  61  71 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     53  67  52  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma