425
FXUS64 KBRO 272315
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
615 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

As the heat ridge in the Eastern US continues to break down,
seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected to continue in
our area with little-to-no chance of precipitation tonight into
tomorrow. Tomorrow night, there is a small chance of precipitation
(around 30%) along the coast as a tropical disturbance expected to
form in the Bay of Campeche moves closer to the Mexican coastline,
bringing unsettled tropical moisture to our region. Skies are
expected to start out partly cloudy tonight, but are expected to
increase to mostly cloudy by tomorrow night. Low temperatures are
expected to consistently remain in the mid 70s for both tonight
and tomorrow night. Tomorrows high will get up into the mid 90s
with heat indices in the mid-100s due to ongoing humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The National Hurricane Center currently indicates a tropical
disturbance is expected to move from Belize into the Bay of
Campeche tomorrow or tomorrow night. This could result in a small
(10-20%) potential of an area of low pressure forming in the Bay
over the next week. At this time, little to no impacts are
expected in Deep South Texas, except for increased precipitation
chances on Sunday and Monday due to the arrival of unsettled
tropical moisture. Current guidance suggests a 50-60% chance of
showers and thunderstorms east of I-69C (with the highest chances
being closest to the coast), dropping off to 20-40% west of I-69C
towards the Ranchlands. After Monday, precipitation chances are
expected to continue to a lesser degree through Thursday
throughout the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas.

Temperatures are also expected to slightly decrease to below
average on Sunday and Monday, with highs getting into the upper
80s/lower 90s on these days. From there, temperatures are expected
to warm back to seasonal levels by the end of the week. Low
temperatures are also expected to gradually warm from the mid 70s
to the upper 70s by the end of the week as well. Winds should be
southeasterly and light to moderate throughout the week, with
mostly cloudy skies. Humidity is expected to remain high, so heat
index values ten or more degrees above the actual temperatures
should be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the 00Z TAF
cycle with east-southeasterly winds (gusting to 20-25 knots) this
evening gradually lightening throughout the remainder of this
evening and into tonight. East-southeasterly winds pick back up to
similar speeds as today, by Saturday afternoon, along with
building clouds, though still anticipate VFR conditions to
persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Overall favorable marine conditions are expected throughout the
week with low to moderate winds and low wave heights. A tropical
disturbance is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche, but at
this time, impacts to our area are expected to be minimal. If the
disturbance does end up developing into an area of low pressure
(the chances of this development are low at this time), it could
potentially increase our wave heights by a foot or two. Winds are
expected to continue to be southeasterly throughout the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  93  78  91 /  10  10  30  70
HARLINGEN               74  94  75  92 /   0  10  10  60
MCALLEN                 77  97  78  94 /   0  10  10  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  95  76  92 /   0  10   0  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  88  79  87 /  10  10  30  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  90  77  89 /  10  10  20  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...65-Irish