747
FXUS64 KBRO 062319
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
619 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Dry conditions and southeasterly winds are expected through the
remainder of the day today as ridging and subsidence aloft continues
along with drier than average PWAT values, which is around 1.50-1.55
inches for this time of year. Overnight tonight, a high pressure
entering the Northern Plains shifts south-southeasterly winds to
more southeasterly-easterly, advecting more Gulf moisture inland,
resulting in above average PWAT values tomorrow into Friday,
potentially surpassing 2.0 inches across the RGV, highest along
the coast. As this moisture interacts with daytime instability,
there is at least a low to medium (30-40%) chance of rain across
all of Deep South Texas as showers and thunderstorms develop along
the seabreeze boundary throughout the morning and afternoon
hours. Along and east of US-281/I-69 C, daily PoP`s increase from
a medium (50-60%) chance tomorrow and Wednesday to likely (70%)
chance on Thursday. Drier air advecting into the CWA behind a cold
front over the southeastern US is likely to reduce chances of
rain from a low to medium (20-40%) chance on Friday to a low (15%
or less) chance over the weekend and early next week as ridging
and subsidence aloft return. In the meantime, any convection that
develops has the potential for producing heavy rain, especially
closer to the coast, where the highest PWAT levels reside.

Near average high temperatures (lower to mid 90`s) inland and mid-
80`s along the immediate coast continue. Above average overnight
lows persist through Thursday night, with lows mostly in the 70`s
before cooling to the 60`s and lower 70`s by Friday night, while
temperatures fall to near 80 degF at the coast. A mostly minor
(level 1/4) heat risk continues, though portions of the RGV can
expect a moderate (level 2/4) heat risk through Thursday.

A medium risk for rip currents through tomorrow and may continue
into the later parts of this week as south-southeasterly winds
become east-northeasterly tonight into tomorrow while long period
swells sustain. The combined effects from the full moon this
evening, long period swells and elevated wave heights have
resulted in the extension of the Coastal Flood Statement through
tomorrow evening. Minor coastal flooding is possible within a few
hours of leading into and out of high tide cycles, such as 3:33 PM
this afternoon, 2:39 AM tonight and 4:56 PM tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Through 00z Wednesday....Outside of any showers or thunderstorms
that are expected to develop on Tuesday, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the 00z TAF cycle.

Any shower or thunderstorm will have the capabilities of reducing
cigs/vsbys to MVFR/IFR. Currently, we have low-medium (30-50%)
chances for showers or thunderstorms developing on Tuesday with the
best timing being anywhere from late morning to early evening.
Coverage, however, is expected to be isolated to widely scattered.
Have introduced Prob30 groups into the TAFs to account for the
potential for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Winds are expected to continue out of the southeast with speeds
between 5-15 kts through this evening before trending towards light
and variable tonight. Winds are expected to develop again out of the
east-southeast on Tuesday with speeds between 5-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3
ft) seas continue into tomorrow, becoming east-northeasterly
tomorrow night. Moderate east northeasterly winds and moderate
seas (3-5 ft) develop Wednesday into Friday as the result of a
slight pressure gradient before gentle to moderate east-
southeasterly winds return over the weekend. There is a medium to
likely (40-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  92  77  90 /  10  60  50  60
HARLINGEN               73  92  73  90 /  10  50  30  50
MCALLEN                 77  96  77  94 /  10  50  40  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  96  73  93 /  10  30  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  87  80  86 /  10  50  50  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  90  76  88 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma