


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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858 FXUS64 KBRO 180343 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1043 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 * Life-threatening rip currents return Sunday into Monday and again Thursday into Friday. * Beaches may narrow during high tide cycles next week. * Above normal temperatures continue with record or near record warmth across the Rio Grande Valley Sunday into Tuesday and again on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A potent surface low deepens across the Southern Plains over the weekend and drags a frontal boundary southward, potentially into Deep South Texas by Sunday afternoon. Expect a breezy Saturday followed by a comfortable but breezy Sunday with a northeasterly wind shift and little else. Temperatures will not drop with this front and POPs remain very low, around 15 percent or less. The subtropical ridge then returns through next week, with a surface high gradually working eastward, maintaining generally dry conditions through the period for most locations with a very low, less than 15 percent, rain chance along the sea breeze Wednesday through Friday. Above normal temperatures continue through the period, approaching record highs across the RGV Sunday through Tuesday and again on Thursday, especially at BRO. There is a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday along the Rio Grande. An elevated rip current risk returns Sunday through Monday and again Thursday into Friday. Long period swell may also help narrow beaches along high tide cycles early to mid next week as astronomical tides begin to increase. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with light ESE winds and a SE breeze Saturday afternoon. Patchy shallow fog may reduce visibility late tonight to just after daybreak, mainly near open fields around HRL. && .MARINE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The pressure gradient strengthens a little along the coast Saturday before diminishing on Sunday ahead of a weak frontal boundary with breezy northeasterly winds Sunday afternoon and evening. Brief SCEC conditions are possible across the bay and nearshore waters each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms offshore Sunday. Southeasterly flow returns next week with a long period easterly swell as high pressure persists across the northern Gulf. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Daily record high temperatures may be approached Sunday through Tuesday and again on Thursday across the Rio Grande Valley, especially Sunday and Tuesday in Brownsville and Tuesday in McAllen. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 72 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 20 HARLINGEN 68 95 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 72 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 87 79 86 / 0 0 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 90 74 89 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...56-Hallman