858
FXUS64 KBRO 180343
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1043 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

* Life-threatening rip currents return Sunday into Monday and again Thursday into Friday.

* Beaches may narrow during high tide cycles next week.

* Above normal temperatures continue with record or near record
  warmth across the Rio Grande Valley Sunday into Tuesday and
  again on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A potent surface low deepens across the Southern Plains over the
weekend and drags a frontal boundary southward, potentially into
Deep South Texas by Sunday afternoon. Expect a breezy Saturday
followed by a comfortable but breezy Sunday with a northeasterly
wind shift and little else. Temperatures will not drop with this
front and POPs remain very low, around 15 percent or less. The
subtropical ridge then returns through next week, with a surface
high gradually working eastward, maintaining generally dry
conditions through the period for most locations with a very low,
less than 15 percent, rain chance along the sea breeze Wednesday
through Friday.

Above normal temperatures continue through the period,
approaching record highs across the RGV Sunday through Tuesday and
again on Thursday, especially at BRO. There is a moderate (level
2 of 4) Heat Risk Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday along the Rio
Grande.

An elevated rip current risk returns Sunday through Monday and
again Thursday into Friday. Long period swell may also help narrow
beaches along high tide cycles early to mid next week as
astronomical tides begin to increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
light ESE winds and a SE breeze Saturday afternoon. Patchy shallow
fog may reduce visibility late tonight to just after daybreak,
mainly near open fields around HRL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The pressure gradient strengthens a little along the coast
Saturday before diminishing on Sunday ahead of a weak frontal
boundary with breezy northeasterly winds Sunday afternoon and
evening. Brief SCEC conditions are possible across the bay and
nearshore waters each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. There is a
low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms offshore Sunday.
Southeasterly flow returns next week with a long period easterly
swell as high pressure persists across the northern Gulf.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Daily record high temperatures may be approached Sunday through
Tuesday and again on Thursday across the Rio Grande Valley,
especially Sunday and Tuesday in Brownsville and Tuesday in
McAllen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             72  92  75  93 /   0   0   0  20
HARLINGEN               68  95  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 72  98  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         69  98  71  98 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  87  79  86 /   0   0   0  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  90  74  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman