759
FXUS64 KBRO 042328 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
528 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

* Dangerous marine and surf conditions are expected through at
  least tomorrow evening due to today`s frontal passage.

* Due to a developing coastal surface low pressure system, a low
  to medium chance of light rain and drizzle is expected in the
  coastal counties tonight and tomorrow, with chances spreading to
  all of Deep South Texas tomorrow night.

* Another front is expected Sunday, which bring dry and pleasant
  weather to the region next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Temperatures are expected to continue falling late this evening into
tonight after a cold front passes through Deep South Texas this
afternoon.  Northerly winds will funnel colder air into the region
and low temperatures are expected to get down into the upper 40s for
the Northern Ranchlands and the lower 50s for the lower Rio Grande
Valley tonight.  There is a low to moderate chance of stratiform
drizzle/light rain overnight, with the highest chances along the
immediate coast, extending inland to areas E of I-69E.

A coastal trough is expected to develop in the wake of the cold
front, which will keep conditions cloudy through at least Saturday
and maintain chances for light rain through tomorrow night.  Low to
moderate (20-40%) chances will be concentrated mostly along the
coast tomorrow, but will spread inland across Deep South Texas
tomorrow evening into the overnight hours.  High temperatures
tomorrow are expected to be cool, getting up into the lower 60s with
limited heating due to cloudy skies.  Cloud cover will prevent
temperatures from dropping too much tomorrow night, with lows
being mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

Temperatures will begin to warm into the 70s and possibly even the
low 80s for this weekend, before a second cold front passes through
on Sunday, dropping Monday high temperatures back into the 60s.
Sunday`s front is expected to be a dry cold front, and will push the
coastal trough off to the east and restore clear to partly cloudy
skies back to the area for next week.  Because skies will become
clearer Sunday night, increased radiational cooling combined with
post-frontal CAA will result in chilly lows in the mid to upper 40s
for most of Deep South Texas Sunday and Monday night. High pressure
is then expected to settle into the region early next week,
resulting in rain-free and gradually warming conditions. Highs
should be back in the lower 80s by next Thursday.

A high risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected tonight
and tomorrow at area beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

IFR to MVFR conditions will likely continue through much of the
period. AN IFR to MVFR stratus deck is forecast to persist through
the TAF period. Intermittent periods of light rain or drizzle
will be possible through the period, and may briefly reduce
visibilities to MVFR levels. Confidence in the timing and duration
of any precipitation impacting the airfields is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 5 PM CST this evening
through 12 PM CST Friday afternoon due to elevated winds and waves
from a frontal passage.  Conditions should then improve later in the
day tomorrow and remain favorable until Sunday night when another
system passes through the area, increasing the winds and waves
again. Small Craft Advisories and/or Small Craft Exercise Caution
Conditions will be possible with this second frontal passage as
well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             52  60  60  74 /  40  10  30  10
HARLINGEN               49  60  55  73 /  20  10  30  10
MCALLEN                 51  63  59  75 /  10  10  30   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         52  66  56  77 /  10  10  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      58  65  65  73 /  50  20  40  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     53  62  59  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...60-BE