Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
589 FXUS64 KBRO 031757 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1157 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Chances of drizzle or light rain increase over the next 24 hours in association with coastal troughing, with the best chances (60-80%) along the immediate coastline tomorrow evening. - Cold front moving through Deep South Texas tomorrow leads to cooler than average temperatures on Friday. - Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory headlines are expected tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A progressive weather pattern continues over the next 7 days, featuring chances of rain, cold fronts and varying temperatures. Coastal troughing ahead of a cold front is expected to generate a low (15-30%) chance of light rain or drizzle near the immediate Lower Texas coastline from this afternoon through tonight. Throughout the daytime tomorrow, the front moves through Deep South Texas, gradually building chances of rain from a low (15-30%) chance across the northern ranchlands and coastal/island areas in the morning to a low to medium (20-60%) chance inland and medium to high (60-80%) chance across coastal/island locations in the evening. Overnight tomorrow night, probabilities of precipitation (PoP`s) steadily decrease to a low (15-30%) chance along the immediate coastline by Friday afternoon, followed by a low to medium (20-40%) chance across the region overnight tomorrow as a weak mid-level trough passes to our north. Ridging aloft takes over throughout Saturday, reducing PoP`s to less than 10% for much of the forecast into the middle of next week, though there may be a chance of rain next Tuesday. High temperatures dip from near average, in the 60s and 70s, today and tomorrow down to the 50s and 60s on Friday as clouds clear in wake of the cold front moving through on Thursday, which is about 10- 15 degrees colder than average. However, temperatures rebound to near or above average on Saturday and Sunday as surface high pressure progresses eastward into the Southeast US. A weaker cold front moves through on Sunday, cooling temperatures to a few degrees below average, with mainly 60s on Monday, before warming into the 70s and 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Elevated moisture and thick cloud cover, scattered at times, have overcome all terminals at this hour, with ceilings varying from IFR (7,000 ft) at KHRL, lower MVFR (1,000 ft) at KMFE and 1,900 ft at KBRO along with calm to light and variable winds. Ceilings are expected to slowly rise, though remaining MVFR, over the next several hours, before possibly mixing out to scattered late this afternoon and early evening. Cloud cover thickens again beyond sunset tonight, with IFR and lower MVFR ceilings returning ahead of chances for light showers tomorrow morning, noted by the PROB 30s at KHRL and KBRO. && .MARINE... Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Gentle to moderate southerly winds and slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas continue through the rest of today and tonight, becoming northerly tomorrow as a cold front passes through the Lower Texas coastal waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) and, or Small Craft Advisory headlines are likely in the wake of the front from tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night as northerly winds increase to moderate to fresh in wake of the cold front, resulting in moderate 4-6 ft, possibly 7 ft) seas. Gentle to moderate seas return on Friday along with slight to moderate seas into the middle of next week. SCEC may be possible again by next Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 69 77 52 / 10 10 40 70 HARLINGEN 75 67 76 49 / 10 10 40 50 MCALLEN 75 67 74 52 / 0 10 20 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 63 70 52 / 0 10 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 71 74 58 / 10 10 50 80 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 68 76 52 / 10 10 50 70 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65-Irish LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...65-Irish