Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221712 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...18z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Generally, VFR flight rules are expected through this
TAF cycle. There may be some patchy low clouds, however, much of
this should remain scattered and out of the MVFR territory. The
primary concern through this cycle will be the increase in surface
winds both this afternoon and again toward the end of the period
on Friday. Winds will be gusty, especially for BRO and HRL, but
MFE can also expect gusts over 20kts at times. Winds will drop off
into the 10-15kt range around or just after sunset.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): 500mb ridge will continue to build
overhead while surface high pressure moves farther east through the
period. The interaction between lower pressure across west Texas and
high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will increase the pressure
gradient. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s,
except for the 70s near the coast. Gusty southeast winds will
develop later this morning into the afternoon. Temperatures tonight
will be mild with lows in the 60s with some increasing clouds. Winds
will diminish tonight as the winds decouple with the loss of diurnal
heating. Above normal temperatures will continue into Friday with
high temperatures in the 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland
under a mix of sun and clouds. Friday will be breezy, especially
near the coast, as the pressure gradient pressure strengthens. Rain-
free conditions will prevail through the forecast period with a dry
and mostly stable air mass in place.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): Wind will be the main
concern during the forecast period. Persistent low pressure over
the Central Plains will interact with high pressure over the Gulf
of Mexico, producing breezy to strong winds across Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The best opportunity for a Wind
Advisory for portions of the BRO CWFA appears at this time to be
on Monday and Tuesday, with the remaining days of the forecast
period not entirely ruled out. Otherwise, dry weather is expected
as 500 mb high pressure is gradually replaced by a southwest-to-
northeast flow as closed 500 mb low pressure drops into the Desert
Southwest. The lack of any cold front passages will ensure above
normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds
around 16 knots gusting to around 21 knots with seas slightly under
4.6 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. Buoy 42045
(TABS K) reported southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around
19 knots at 02 CDT/07 UTC. Moderate southeast winds will prevail
across the lower Texas coastal waters today as surface high pressure
moves east and the pressure gradient remains strong. Stronger winds
will develop tonight and Friday as the pressure gradient strengthens
across the western Gulf. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution on the
Laguna Madre and on the offshore Gulf waters for today. Small Craft
Advisory conditions may develop by late tonight on the offshore Gulf
waters and across all of the lower Texas coastal waters on Friday.

Friday Night through Wednesday: The intense interaction between
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure over the
continental United States will produce a strong pressure gradient
over the western Gulf of Mexico during the period. Strong winds
and rough seas are anticipated for the Lower Texas coastal waters,
with Small Craft Advisory likely to be needed for nearly all of
the forecast period.




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