Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 020743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
243 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023


(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

A couple more warm and mostly dry days are on deck leading into the
first weekend of June. Highs are forecast to climb into the lower to
middle 90s today and tomorrow with lows tonight in the lower to
middle 70s.

The axis of an H5 ridge is over the County Warning Area (CWA) and
will limit the potential for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. A weak vorticity max is forecast to swirl across Central
Texas this evening, helping to weaken the ridge a bit. That sets the
stage for another vort max to near the region Saturday afternoon.
With the vort max nearing the area and ample CAPE available, have
included a 20 percent chance of showers and storms across the Rio
Grande Plains and western Upper Rio Grande Valley Saturday


(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

The mid-level ridge continues to weaken through the weekend, with a
500mb shortwave swinging across the state on Sunday. By next
week, a strong trough deepens across the Northeast, while a broad
area of low pressure settles into the Southeast and northern Gulf
of Mexico. This holds weak ridging across the higher terrain of
Mexico and likely maintains somewhat unsettled weather across
Deep South Texas through the long term period. Mexican convection
may roam into the brush country or upper valley late Saturday into
Sunday, with the seabreeze and any leftover outflow boundaries
initiating additional showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.
Seabreeze convection chances gradually diminish, but continue from
east to west each afternoon through Thursday, with diurnal
streamer showers or isolated thunderstorms possible offshore each
night. Temperatures should remain fairly consistent through the
week, warming a degree or two by late week.

The tropical system across the southeastern Gulf likely will not
have any visible impact to the lower Texas coast late this weekend
or early next week. Rip current risk may need to be monitored.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours at all TAF
sites. A cloud deck hanging out around 8000 feet early this
morning may drop some as the night progresses, so we`ll keep an
eye on that. Southeasterly winds continue and may gust up to 20
knots at times later Friday morning into Friday afternoon before
slackening some Friday evening.


Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Now through Saturday...Moderate onshore winds will flirt with Small
Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions at times across the Lower
Texas Coastal waters through the period. Seas have been hanging out
near 3 feet and are expected to remain between 2 to 4 feet through
Saturday afternoon. Rain chances are less than 10 percent.

Saturday Night through Thursday...Offshore swell may maintain 2 to
4 foot seas into Sunday, before more favorable marine conditions
return through late next week with light southeasterly onshore
winds. Expect seas of around 2 feet or less late Monday through
Thursday. Isolated streamer showers or thunderstorms are possible
offshore each night, roaming toward the coast each morning before
the seabreeze takes over inland.


BROWNSVILLE             91  75  90  74 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN               91  72  91  72 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN                 93  74  92  73 /   0  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  74  92  73 /   0  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  79  85  77 /   0  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  75  88  74 /   0  10  10   0




SHORT TERM...58-Reese
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...58-Reese is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.