Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 121050 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
550 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Zonal flow aloft will remain in place through Saturday allowing
temperatures to remain near normal. Surface high pressure across the
western Gulf of Mexico this morning will slide eastward through the
short term. This will allow the pressure gradient to strengthen and
bring moderate to breezy southeast winds across the area today and
Saturday. Mostly sunny skies with comfortable conditions are
expected for today with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Mild
conditions are expected tonight with higher but still comfortable
humidity levels. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s across much
of Deep South Texas, except for the low 70s along the coast. Partly
sunny skies on Saturday with highs ranging from the 70s at the coast
to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere, a few locations could reach 90
degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.

A low risk for rip currents will exist through tonight then becoming
a moderate risk on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be under the
influence of high pressure in the middle layers of the atmosphere
throughout the period. This will produce dry weather across the
BRO CWFA with no chance of rain. Meanwhile, at the surface, the
pressure gradient will intensify, leading to breezy to windy
conditions. In fact, the strength of the wind may reach WIND
ADVISORY criteria Monday into Monday night, with the most likely
counties in the WIND ADVISORY being Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy.

Temperature-wise, a gradual increase in daytime highs and
overnight lows is anticipated. The hottest highs are forecast to
be on Tuesday, as a weak cold front intrudes into the CRP CWFA and
produces a downsloping effect off of the neighboring high terrain
of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across Deep
South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions will continue for
the next 24 hours with high pressure in control. Light southeast
winds will increase and become breezy later this morning into the
afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease later this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Generally favorable conditions are expected today into tonight
with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Moderate to
breezy southeast winds will develop on Saturday as the pressure
gradient strengthens. Exercise Caution conditions will be likely
and low-end Small Craft Advisories will be possible on Saturday,
especially on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters (0-20
nm).

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory
conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast during a
majority of the period courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient
over the western Gulf of Mexico. The most adverse winds and seas
are anticipated to be from Monday through Wednesday. Conditions
will begin to improve on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast models continue to indicate relative humidity (RH) values
will fall below 30 percent this afternoon with 20ft winds increasing
out of the southeast 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Therefore, a Fire
Weather Danger Statement has been issued across much of Deep South
Texas for today, except near the coast. Relative humidity (RH)
values will recover on Saturday as low-level moisture continues to
increase across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             83  67  81  70 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               84  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 86  65  86  69 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         87  64  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  70  75  72 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  66  80  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...63-KC


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