Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 171128 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
628 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Light southeast winds with some passing low and high
level clouds prevail across deep south Texas early this morning.
Brief MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible around sunrise as some
low clouds drift across the aerodromes. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to persist for the next 24 hours as a mid-level
ridge over northern Mexico and south Texas continues to provide
subsidence across deep south Texas. Light winds this morning will
become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Moderate
winds are expected to continue through this evening into the
overnight hours. MVFR ceilings may return late in the period,
especially at HRL and MFE.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Mid-level ridging anchored over
northeast Mexico and south Texas will maintain hot days, warm
nights, and rain-free conditions through the period. At the surface,
high pressure across the central Gulf of Mexico will support
moderate to breezy south to southeast winds. Temperatures will
remain several degrees above normal today and Wednesday with near
normal temperatures expected tonight. Highs will range from the
lower 80s at the beaches, the low to mid 90s across the Lower Rio
Grande Valley and the upper 90s to the triple digits along and west
of the I-69C/U.S. 281 corridor under mostly sunny skies. Heat
indices between 98 to 105 degrees are expected each afternoon. Lows
tonight are expected to fall to around 70 across the northern
Ranchlands and the Brush Country to the low to mid 70s along the Rio
Grande River and near the coast. In addition, patchy fog, shallow in
nature, will be possible around sunrise this morning, especially
across the northern Ranchlands. Any fog that develops should be
brief and will quickly dissipate after sunrise.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): High pressure in the
middle layers of the atmosphere is still expected to be the main
weather feature over the BRO CWFA during a majority of the period.
This will produce dry weather with gradually increasing daytime
high and overnight low temperatures from Wednesday night through
Saturday. In fact, the combination of well above normal high
temperatures Saturday and a moist atmosphere may result in a Heat
Advisory that day for portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. A welcome change to the anticipated hot and dry
pattern may occur on Sunday and Monday, as the approach of a weak
cold front from the north could produce much cooler (near normal)
temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms those days.

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds
around 16 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly under
3.0 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 0240 CDT/0740 UTC. Moderate
to occasionally strong south to southeast winds and moderate seas
will prevail through the period with high pressure across the
central Gulf. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions prevail along
the lower Texas coast this morning. A slight uptick in winds is
expected on the Laguna Madre this afternoon. Therefore, will issue a
Small Craft Advisory for the Laguna Madre from Noon today until 8 PM
this evening. Small craft exercise caution or low end small craft
advisories are expected tonight and Wednesday as the pressure
gradient strengthens along the lower Texas coast.

Wednesday Night through Monday: High pressure positioned over the
Gulf of Mexico is still expected to interact with thermal low
pressure situated over inland Mexico throughout the period. This
will create breezy winds and moderate to rough seas along the
Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft
Advisory are likely to be needed on a daily basis.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  74  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          93  76  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            96  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              98  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  72 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  77  82  77 /   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ130-132-135.



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