Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 141938
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
238 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night): An elongated 500mb
ridge across the Gulf of Mexico extending westward into northeast
Mexico will continue to provide subsidence across the Rio Grande
Valley and northern ranchlands tonight into Tuesday. A 500mb
shortwave trough developing across New Mexico Tuesday will move
into west Texas Tues night as a cold front moves through the Texas
panhandle Tuesday and moves through central TX Tues night. Low to
mid level moisture will increase along and ahead of the frontal
boundary and as the front approaches the northern portions of the
CWA Tues night...isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop across the northern ranchlands late Tues night.
Otherwise...not much in the way of rain chances are expected for
the Rio Grande Valley tonight through Tues night. Patchy fog is
expected to develop across portions of deep south Texas late
tonight into early Tues morning as mostly clear skies and light
winds will prevail across the CWA tonight. Temperatures will be
above normal tonight through Tues night with lows generally in the
70s tonight and Tues night and highs generally in the 90s with a
few locations near 100 across upper portions of the RGV Tuesday.


.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday):Deterministic and ensembles
are in better agreement this afternoon on the synoptic pattern
across N. American and the CONUS. A fairly progressive pattern
should bring a front, albeit weak, and good shot of rain through
Deep South Texas and the RGV Wednesday/Thursday and a potentially
stronger front at the end of next weekend or early next week.

A low pressure trough moving across the Northern Plains and Great
lakes pushes the tail end of a cold front through the CWA Wednesday.
Model timing suggest the slow moving front enters the northern
counties Wed morning tracking south of the Lower RGV Wednesday`s
late in the afternoon or around sunset before stalling offshore.
This front is followed by a mid-level low pressure area that moves
across West Texas Wed night and over the state Thursday. Both
GFS/ECMWF indicate pressures lowering off the lower Texas coast
as a low pressure area forms (WPC/NHC also agree) along the front
as the mid-level feature approaches. Moisture flux increases more
in wake of the the front with best pops over the northern
counties early Wed with Mid and Lower Valley seeing rain chances
increase later Wednesday as the front progresses southeast.
Models suggesting much higher rain chances Wed night and Thursday,
especially for the coastal area, as much richer tropical moisture
wraps around the developing low offshore. Temperatures remain
warm ahead of the front with about a 10 degree drop behind the
front. Coolest temperatures are forecast for Thursday with the
best chance of rain and a modest northeast wind.

The mid-level low tracks northeast as another quick moving shortwave
moves across the Southern Plains Friday which in turn kicks the Gulf
surface low northeast. Drier air ensues, rain chances diminish and
and temperatures warm up. As we move into the end of the forecast
package broad upper low pressure trough is indicated to take up
residence over much of the Western and Central U.S. which may push a
stronger front and initiate another chance of rain into the region
early next week.

&&

.MARINE:(Tonight through Tuesday night): Seas were near 2 feet with
light and variable winds at buoy020 early this afternoon. Winds will
increase from the southeast across the coastal waters tonight as low
pressure across the TX/OK panhandles allows the pressure gradient to
increase across the lower Texas coast. Light to moderate southeast
winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight into Tuesday.
The pressure gradient will weaken across the lower Texas coast Tues
night as a cold front moves into south Texas. Winds will become
light and veer to the south late Tues night as a result.

(Wednesday through Friday):Next cold front moves through the
coastal waters Wednesday with a moderate northeast surge. Weak high
pressure builds in from the north with low pressure forming along
the front Wednesday night and Thursday. This will allow for winds
and seas to increase with marginal small craft advisory
conditions. Small Craft advisories are possible depending on the
future strengthening of this low pressure area. The area of low
pressure tracks northeast into the northcentral Gulf by Friday
with winds and seas slowly lowering. Showers and thunderstorms
increase behind the front Wednesday night becoming widespread
Thursday as the area of low pressure develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  92  75  90 /  10  10  10  40
HARLINGEN            74  94  72  89 /  10   0  10  40
MCALLEN              76  96  75  91 /   0   0  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  98  73  89 /   0   0  10  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  86  79  84 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/Castillo...Short-term
59/Bogorad...Long-term


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