Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
148 FXUS64 KBRO 062344 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 544 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 542 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Warm temperatures continue through Sunday before a (rain-free) cold front cools us down for the workweek. - Areas of fog are possible Sunday morning across Deep South Texas, creating potentially unsafe driving conditions. Visibility could reach a mile or less. - Adverse marine conditions are likely Sunday evening into Monday behind the passage of the cold front on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Above average temperatures today and tomorrow with highs in the 70s today, climbing into the 80s Sunday before a dry cold front pushes through Sunday afternoon. Low temperatures Monday morning are expected to be around 5-10 degF cooler than Sunday morning lows in the wake of the cold front (upper 40s to low 50s vs. upper 50s to low 60s). The workweek starts out with highs in the upper 60s (Ranchlands) to low 70s (RGV/plains), and will slowly climb into the 80s by midweek under a benign pattern with ridging building over the desert SW. Another front late week may usher back in cooler temperatures we`ve so been craving. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. Tonight/Sunday morning, light winds and a narrow dewpoint depression across Deep South Texas leaves a chance of (patchy dense) fog development (SREF indicating 30-60% chance of visibility less than one mile, with greatest chances along US-77 and in northern Ranchlands). Visibilities as low as 1/4 mi are possible. There is uncertainty with strength of winds above the boundary layer and depth of low level moisture. Current short range ensemble guidance depicts a wide spread between 25th and 75th percentiles of visibility ranges - from less than a mile to greater than 10mi. Will hold off on issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Through 00z Monday....The main weather concern to aviation operations during the 00z TAF period is the likelihood of mist, fog, and/or low stratus developing, particularly later this evening and tonight. The latest satellite and sfc observations showed a SCT-OVC deck of stratus clouds ranging between 700-4,500 feet AGL. VFR conditions were taking place at KBRO and KMFE. However, IFR conditions are taking place over KHRL due to low ceilings with visibilities of 6 statute miles due to haze (HZ). Due to the combination of light winds and copious amounts of low level moisture trapped underneath a sharp inversion just above the sfc, per this morining`s 12z BRO Sounding, and narrowing dewpoint depressions, low stratus, mist, or fog are expected to increase in probability over the next 6-9 hours and persist into Sunday morning. Have introduced TEMPO groups for all the terminals to account for the likelihood of fog/mist/low stratus developing tonight into Sunday morning. Any fog/mist that develops will have the capabilities of reducing cigs/vsbys to MVFR-LIFR levels through Sunday morning. The likelihood of dense fog developing is increasing as well and we could see extended period of LIFR-VLIFR conditions occur tonight into Sunday morning. Any fog/mist/low stratus that develops overnight is expected to gradually scour or burn out by mid to late Sunday morning. Depending on how strong the capping inversion is just above the sfc will depend on how quickly the fog/mist will burn out. Eventually, flying conditions will return to VFR-MVFR conditions on Sunday. Light north-northeast winds 5-10 kts this evening will trend towards light and variable to calm tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Generally favorable conditions with moderate winds of varying directions and slight seas continues through Sunday. A passing cold front on Sunday will bring elevated winds and seas in its wake. Sunday night, expect strong northerly winds and rough seas building. Small Craft Advisory Conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday. Favorable conditions return Tuesday and persist through the workweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 65 85 57 71 / 10 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 61 85 51 70 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 64 87 53 71 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 61 86 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 77 64 68 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 83 57 70 / 10 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...23-Evbuoma