466
FXUS64 KBRO 141131 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
631 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Southeasterly flow, deep moisture, and surface convergence are
favorable for a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms,
particularly for the eastern counties on both Saturday and Sunday.
Chances are around 20% on Saturday mainly east of I-69E and between
20-35% on Sunday, with the highest chances along the coast. Sunday`s
precipitation chances will also surge further inland than
Saturday`s, reaching west of of the I-69C corridor.

Hot and humid conditions are also expected, with Saturday and Sunday
being slightly above average. High temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 90s/lower 100s on Saturday and Sunday with heat indices
of up to 110 in some areas. Winds will be southeasterly, continuing
to advect deep moisture over the area from the Gulf. Low
temperatures will be in the upper 70s/lower 80s with very high
overnight relative humidities throughout all Deep South Texas
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Low to moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
into early next week, particularly in the eastern portions of the
County Warning Area.  Current model guidance is showing the
potential for a tropical wave to bring increased precipitation
chances (up to 70%) on Thursday through Saturday, particularly for
areas east of I-69C.  NBM Quantitative Precipitation Forecast values
have values over 1 in the Eastern Counties for all three days,
indicating that localized heavy rain is possible for some areas on
these days.  However, the amount and exact locations of the heaviest
precipitation is still to be determined. Some models have the
heaviest precipitation going to our south into Mexico, whereas
others have the heaviest areas of precipitation over Deep South
Texas. This will be monitored throughout the week for better
consensus as the forecast evolves.

This tropical disturbance will help bring high temperatures below
seasonal values later this week; temperatures will drop from the mid-
to-upper 90s to a more pleasant upper 80s/lower 90s, and skies will
transition from partly to mostly cloudy. Low temperatures will
remain fairly consistent throughout the week in the mid to upper
70s. Winds will remain light to moderate and southeasterly,
supporting the continued advection of tropical moisture into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Some passing low clouds with brief pockets of MVFR ceilings and light
southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this
morning. Will include a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings at all three
terminals through 13Z. There is a low chance of seabreeze convection
late this morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, light winds
early this morning will increase and become breezy later this
morning, some gusts around 25 knots will be possible in the
afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease to around 10 knots later
this evening into tonight. VFR conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours. However, there is a low potential for MVFR ceilings
to develop late tonight, especially at MFE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Moderate seas are expected throughout the weekend into early next
week, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and wave heights
between 3-4 feet. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten mid-
to-late next week, which will result in increased winds and building
seas, where Small Craft Advisory and Small Craft Exercise Caution
criteria could potentially be reached.  An increase in tropical
moisture and potential tropical disturbance could also bring
localized heavy rainfall offshore, which could further deteriorate
conditions near any showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  81  94  80 /  20  30  40  30
HARLINGEN               96  78  95  77 /  20  20  30  20
MCALLEN                100  81  99  79 /  20  10  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  79  98  78 /  10  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  82  88  81 /  20  30  40  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  79  92  79 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...63-KC