092
FXUS64 KBRO 021127 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
527 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

 - The Storm Prediction Center maintains a slight (level 2 of 5)
   Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms overnight for most of
   Kenedy County while a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for isolated
   severe thunderstorms remains along and east of US-281/I-69 C as
   convection continues to develop ahead of an approaching cold
   front.

 - Isolated to scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms
   remain possible tonight with hail and strong winds the primary
   threats.

 - A medium risk for rip currents continues through the day Sunday
   and is likely to continue into Monday due to increased winds,
   wave heights and wave periods behind the cold front as well as
   increasing effects from astronomical tides.

 - Ridging aloft and dry conditions (less than 10% chance of rain)
   return Sunday and for the remainder of the forecast period
   along with a warming trend in temperatures, becoming above
   average by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Strong to severe convection ahead of an approaching cold front has
resulted in an active evening for severe weather already with
severe thunderstorm and special marine warnings issued across the
coastal counties (Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron) and over the Gulf
coastal waters (0-60 nm), with a severe thunderstorm warning
currently active in Cameron County as well as 2 ongoing special
marine warnings. These storms have had a history of producing
large hail (greater than 1") and/or radar- and satellite-detected
Maximum Estimated Hail Sizes of greater than 2 inches as well as
winds in excess of 55 knots (greater than 63 mph) and brief
periods of rotation leading to possible funnel clouds and/or
waterspouts. The atmosphere continues to remain energized as
MUCAPE of at least 1,000 J/kg remains all over Deep South Texas
along with high effective bulk shear values (up to 65 knots,
higher to the west of US-281/I-69 C, where the atmosphere has not
been worked over) as well as Large Hail Parameter values of 6-8
and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 or greater across the eastern
portions of the lower RGV. Additional development thunderstorms is
likely inland overnight as cells developing across the southern
NWS Corpus County Warning Area move into the northern ranchlands
on either side of US-281/I-69 C, likely as far west as Jim Hogg
and Starr Counties; SPC continues a slight (level 2 of 5) Risk for
isolated severe thunderstorms continues overnight for most of
Kenedy County while a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for isolated
severe thunderstorms remains along and east of US- 281/I-69 C.
Hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats, though maybe
not as large hail or as strong wind as already observed and/or
detected this evening. Otherwise, we expect for probabilities of
rain to gradually diminish and be limited to the immediate
coastline, with chances dropping below 15% by Sunday morning.

Dry conditions return to Deep South Texas on Sunday as ridging aloft
returns from a mid-upper level high pressure over the Desert
Southwest, which is likely to keep dry conditions (less than 10%
PoP`s) into the remainder of the forecast as it moves east-
southeastward over the northern-central Gulf by mid-week,
maintaining high pressure into next weekend. At the surface,
northerly winds during the day Sunday gradually veer to easterly by
Monday afternoon and southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon due to the
surface high pressure over the Southern Plains shifting
southeastward to the central Gulf states.

Although strong to severe convection has been associated with this
front, in comparison to the front that passed through our region
last week, there will not be as much of a temperature drop as highs
on Sunday reach into the upper 70`s and lower 80`s, which is only a
few degrees below average. More seasonable temperatures return for
Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the 80`s, as well as a gradual
warming trend through midweek and into next weekend as southeasterly
winds advect warm air. By next weekend, daytime temperatures could
be closer to 10 degrees above average. As for overnight lows, the
most notable temperature difference may be felt on Monday morning
with lows in the upper 40`s in portions of the northern
ranchlands and mainly 50`s elsewhere, which is at least 5 degrees
cooler than average. Overnight lows warm to near average by
Tuesday and Wednesday night, with 50`s and 60`s, before warming to
mainly 60`s by next weekend.

Additionally, a low risk of rip currents continues through the
daytime today, likely continuing into tonight. In the wake of the
cold front, a medium, possibly even high, risk is likely Sunday into
Monday as winds, wave heights and wave periods increase in
combination with increasing effects of astronomical tides on Monday.

A medium risk of rip currents continue through the daytime Sunday
and likely to persist into Monday as wave heights and wave periods
gradually diminish while under the building influence of
astronomical tides.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Primarily VFR conditions prevail for the 12Z cycle at all sites.
Northerly winds persist, with gusts around 25 kts through the
morning at MFE and through the afternoon at HRL and BRO before
shifting to NNE-ly and lessening Sunday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms have passed through much of the
coastal waters (0-60 nm) already this evening ahead of a cold front
and additional showers and thunderstorms are likely as another round
moves offshore to the north, however we do not anticipate nearly as
strong cells, though small hail and stronger winds may still be
possible. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect across all of the
coastal waters until Sunday evening as north-northeasterly winds
increase to strong into sunrise in the wake of the passage of the
cold front. Otherwise, winds and seas improve back back to favorable
with dry conditions overnight Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  59  81  62 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               81  53  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 83  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         82  53  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  70  78  70 /  20   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  61  80  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...69-HK