Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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721
FXUS64 KBRO 151719
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1119 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Breezy, warm, and dry conditions persist across Deep South Texas
  into mid week.

- There is a medium, 30 to 40 percent, chance of rain Thursday
  into Friday with the next frontal boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The subtropical ridge across Texas gradually nudges back out over
the Gulf by mid to late week, as the next low swings from Baja
California into the Southern Plains. At the surface, moisture
begins to increase on Wednesday, with a frontal boundary
approaching Thursday into Friday. There is a very low, less than
10 percent, chance of rain through Wednesday, and a medium, 30-40
percent, chance Thursday into early Friday. Well above normal
temperatures persist with record to near record highs Sunday
through Thursday. Behind the front, temperatures only dip back
towards normal or slightly above normal. As the pressure gradient
strengthens mid-week, expect breezy southeasterly winds Wednesday
and Thursday, especially each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with a southeasterly
breeze this afternoon into early this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Southeasterly winds persist each afternoon into late next week,
increasing due to a strong pressure gradient along the lower Texas
coast Wednesday into Thursday. SCEC to SCA conditions are possible
Wednesday into Thursday. A front arrives Friday morning with a
brief northerly wind shift.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Well above normal highs across the Rio Grande Valley are expected
to approach, tie, or break daily high records Sunday through
Thursday, especially at McAllen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             85  69  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               87  64  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 90  68  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  64  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  74  82  75 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     84  66  86  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman