Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
721 FXUS64 KBRO 151719 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1119 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Breezy, warm, and dry conditions persist across Deep South Texas into mid week. - There is a medium, 30 to 40 percent, chance of rain Thursday into Friday with the next frontal boundary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 The subtropical ridge across Texas gradually nudges back out over the Gulf by mid to late week, as the next low swings from Baja California into the Southern Plains. At the surface, moisture begins to increase on Wednesday, with a frontal boundary approaching Thursday into Friday. There is a very low, less than 10 percent, chance of rain through Wednesday, and a medium, 30-40 percent, chance Thursday into early Friday. Well above normal temperatures persist with record to near record highs Sunday through Thursday. Behind the front, temperatures only dip back towards normal or slightly above normal. As the pressure gradient strengthens mid-week, expect breezy southeasterly winds Wednesday and Thursday, especially each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with a southeasterly breeze this afternoon into early this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Southeasterly winds persist each afternoon into late next week, increasing due to a strong pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast Wednesday into Thursday. SCEC to SCA conditions are possible Wednesday into Thursday. A front arrives Friday morning with a brief northerly wind shift. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Well above normal highs across the Rio Grande Valley are expected to approach, tie, or break daily high records Sunday through Thursday, especially at McAllen. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 85 69 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 87 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 90 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 64 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 74 82 75 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 66 86 69 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...56-Hallman