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FXUS61 KBTV 141128
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building slowly southward from Canada will bring
mainly dry weather through early next week along with a gradual
warming trend. The next chance of showers and storms arrives mainly
from next Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front affects the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 728 AM EDT Saturday...The forecast remains in good shape
with no appreciable changes needed. Have a great day.

Prior discusison...
Variable clouds will give way to partial to full sunshine by
later this morning/afternoon from north to south as high
pressure builds into the region (far southern counties may hold
onto clouds a bit longer). Outside a stray early morning light
shower central/south, dry weather is expected with pleasant
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s under light northerly flow
less than 10 mph.

Mainly quiet weather then continues for tonight into Sunday. There
will be gradual increase in cloud cover with a few, spotty light
showers possible central/southern counties on Sunday with the
passage of a very weak mid level shortwave trough, but QPF is scant
and very light where showers do occur and most areas should remain
dry. Temperatures remain within a degree or two of seasonal mid-June
norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...The end of the weekend continues to look
mainly quiet and for most on the dry side. Upper level flow will
look to remain zonal with some northwesterly flow leading to
temperatures close to seasonal normals. Highs in the mid 70s and
with lows down into the low to mid 50s. Weak shortwave energy
associated with the marginal northwest flow, along with dew points
near 60, could help develop some weak instability and showers,
primarily over the mountains during the day Monday. Otherwise, most
locations should be dry with mostly cloudy skies expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...The long term overall does not have any
highly impactful weather as of right now, however warming
temperatures and dew points will lead to daily instability with
chances for showers and thunderstorms everyday. A weakly amplified
positively tilted upper level trough will slowly move eastward over
the course of the week. This will keep the area firmly in the warm
sector with ensemble temperatures 5- 10 degrees above normal with
highs in the upper 70s early week to mid 80s by mid to late week.
Dewpoints will also trend into the 60s making it feel more on the
humid side as well. Thermodynamics and open wave energy will lead to
daily instability development. The greatest chance for showers and
thunderstorms exists Wednesday and Thursday from an approaching
front which could bring the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms, which we will monitor closely in the coming days.
Highest PoPs in the extended portion are generally 65-80% on
Thursday afternoon. Winds also will generally be on the breezy side
through the extended period with the instability around. Tuesday
afternoon looks to be the windiest of the long term with a nose of
an 850mb jet scraping the region as it moves northeastward across
the St. Lawrence Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions under light
northerly flow less than 10 kts expected during the forecast
period. Some scattered, spotty IFR cigs possible at KMPV through
13Z. No precipitation is expected. Skies generally BKN/OVC from
060-120 AGL at 12Z, slowly scattering out to generally mid-
high clouds thereafter at all terminals except RUT which will
hold onto VFR cigs in the 050-070 AGL range through a good part
of the day. Mainly SKC at MSS/EFK. After 00Z, mainly VFR
continues, though with a slow return of clouds later at night,
mainly after 06Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...JMG