253
FXUS61 KBTV 272347
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
747 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds and chances for showers will be possible this
evening, with additional showers and a few rumbles of thunder are
possible overnight as a warm front lifts across our region.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
tomorrow, with some thunderstorms capable of producing localized
very heavy rainfall. Drier and warmer weather returns for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 702 PM EDT Friday...Have increased surface SSE winds and
wind gusts in the Champlain Valley overnight. Given moderately
strong p-gradient and northward shift of most of the
precipitation, should see less stable PBL conditions overnight
and good valley channeled flow overall. Should see 15-25 mph
sustained winds and gusts 30-35 mph at times, especially near
and over Lake Champlain. A Lake Wind Advisory is already in
effect for this evening and tonight. As a consequence of the
winds, temperatures may also stay a few degrees warmer
overnight, with lows in the lower 60s likely at BTV by daybreak
Saturday. Previous discussion follows.

Cloud cover continues to increase across the North Country this
afternoon, with a few chances for some showers this evening as
a warm front begins to lift across the region to the north. The
forecast has not changed much from the previous shift, with
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected overnight and
through the day tomorrow. The precipitation tonight will be
driven by warm air advection and some elevated instability, with
a few rumbles of thunder possible overnight tonight. In addition
to the showers, strong southerly flow and breezy conditions
will be possible, especially across Lake Champlain. Temperatures
overnight tonight will be fairly mild, only dropping into the
upper 50s and lower 60s across the region.

By tomorrow morning, the frontal boundary will be to our north, with
the region sitting in the warm sector. A cold front will look to
push through during the day tomorrow, bringing some additional
convection throughout the day. A few stronger showers may be
possible, but the exact locations of any stronger convection are
tricky to pinpoint. SPC currently clips the forecast area with a
Marginal Risk for severe, with most of the area just expecting
general thunderstorms. The best convergence and axis of heaviest
rainfall remain to our north, with current rainfall forecasts
showing amounts ranging anywhere from 0.25 to 1.0 inches near the
international border throughout the forecast period. The environment
will still be quite favorable for efficient rainfall processes, with
PWAT values of 1.5 inches and deep warm layer cloud depths, so a
localized and isolated flash flooding threat will still be possible,
especially across the higher terrain. WPC continues to maintain a
Marginal Risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for thus time frame.
Drier air looks to quickly move into the region towards the
afternoon, effectively limiting the heavy rain threat and most
precipitation chances. Daytime highs tomorrow will largely depend on
the timing of precipitation and how quickly the cold front pushes
through, with highs in the 70s to low 80s possible tomorrow
afternoon. The drier conditions will continue into Saturday night,
with lows in the upper 50s and 60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Weak surface high pressure and building
mid-level ridging will support fantastic weather on Sunday.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s while
dewpoints remaining in the mid 50s to lower 60s. By nighttime,
west- northwest flow will switch back to the south as the mid-
level ridge pushes east. Low temperatures will be somewhat above
seasonal normals in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...On Monday, the ridge will reamplify in the
face of an incoming trough. Strengthening southwesterly flow will
return heat and humidity to the forecast area. Forecast 925mb
temperatures range from about 23-25 C, and this should put us in the
upper 80s to mid 90s during the afternoon while dewpoints climb up
towards the mid to upper 60s. You can also expect a warm, muggy
night in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

However, this heat will be short-lived. A cold front will begin to
approach the forecast area Tuesday morning. It doesn`t appear likely
to be very impactful. The prefrontal trough should produce some
scattered precipitation during the morning hours. The moisture plume
associated with it will shift east by afternoon, which will be
replaced by dry mid-level air. The actual front shifts east mid-
afternoon, but while that dry air is present. Thus, we may observe
isolated to scattered convection associated with the frontal
boundary, but updrafts do not appear likely to be impressive given
marginal CAPE and limited forcing. Behind the cold front,
temperatures will gradually settle back to seasonal norms. An upper
low will gradually shift out of the Hudson Bay and approach the
region. Although there`s limited moisture, its presence should allow
for isolated to scattered diurnal convection ahead of it for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Most sites outside of SLK/EFK will continue
to see VFR conditions through 12Z. SLK may see intermittent MVFR
for the next hour or so before lower clouds should scour out. Rain
showers will track across the international border over the
next 2 to 3 hours with some heavier showers briefly reducing
visibilities to MVFR at EFK. Winds will be the main terminal
impact with south winds 10-15 knots and gusts to near 20 knots
at all sites, with locally higher gusts at BTV/PBG. Winds will
continue to be gusty through the taf period. LLWS is expected
overnight at all sites through 12Z. By 12Z, model guidance
suggests ceilings will trend towards MVFR at all sites from rain
showers with some guidance suggesting near or at IFR ceilings
below 1000 ft agl at BTV/MPV/EFK/SLK by 18Z. Given the time of
year, confidence is low in achieving IFR ceilings, so trended
ceilings only to 1000-2000 ft agl for tomorrow afternoon. These
low ceilings will be associated with periodic showers and
possibly an embedded thunderstorm tomorrow, particularly between
13-20Z. Ceilings will improve towards VFR at MSS/SLK and then
eastward beyond 22Z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The threat for excessive rainfall and the potential flash
flooding threat has decreased across much of the North Country
tonight into Saturday. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Saturday with localized heavy
rainfall possible in the stronger storms. Very isolated flash
flooding is possible, especially if a mountain basin has several
direct hits from thunderstorms on Saturday. Any flood threat
quickly ends by sunset on Saturday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain tonight.
South winds generally 10 to 15 knots this afternoon will
increase towards 15 to 30 knots this evening into the overnight
hours, with even higher gusts possible. Waves are expected to
build to 3 to 6 feet across the lake tonight. Conditions are
expected to improve throughout the day tomorrow.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Danzig
HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV
MARINE...NWS BTV