977
FXUS61 KBTV 081845
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. A washed out cold front this afternoon will keep high clouds
lingering with continued seasonable conditions into early tomorrow.
Widespread rain is expected to arrive tomorrow late morning and
spread east through Wednesday night.

2. The weekend will be seasonably warm, with increasing
humidity and a chance for showers on Sunday ahead of another cold
front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front is washing out across central Vermont and
the Adirondacks as it attempts to push south into a stout area of
strong high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Dry air from
Canada will seep south into our northern regions helping to scour
out low-level moisture and low clouds through this afternoon.
However, high clouds associated with our tomorrow system will also
be increasing from the west concurrently. While a few break in the
clouds, mainly near the International Border and Northeast Kingdom
will be possible, this afternoon likely will remain on the cloudier
side. Temperatures will be relatively seasonable overnight tonight
across eastern Vermont with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Clearer skies in Essex County, Vermont may allow for some pocket mid
40s. More milder air will linger across the St. Lawrence Valley and
Adirondacks with lows in the mid 50s to near 60 as dewpoints will
remain elevated.

Our next weather system arrives from the Great Lakes by mid to late
tomorrow morning as a warm front connected to our washed out cold
front pushes east. Isentropic lift along the warm front will lead to
widespread light to moderate stratiform rain on the leading edge of
the system late tomorrow morning through the afternoon, moving from
the St. Lawrence Valley eastward into central and northern Vermont.
The rainfall gradient will likely be tight between central and
southern Vermont with higher amounts north, and lower south.
Stratiform rain will become more scoured and scattery by Wednesday
evening as a strong low level jet of 40-50kts at 3-4kft builds in.
While most of these stronger winds aloft will not be realized due to
concurrent precipitation, gusts between 25-35 MPH will be possible,
especially in the favored south-north channeled valleys. For
mariners, a Lake Wind Advisory will likely be needed for Lake
Champlain tomorrow into tomorrow night. The low-level jet will be
associated with a small warm sector for our area which will help
transition showers around sunset to more showery convective driven.
Instability will be elevated and not surface based, and likely will
be competing with the preceding stable air from the days stratiform
rain. That said, a few isolated rumbles of thunder, primarily in the
St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks will be possible with just under
500J/kg of elevated MLCAPE, and subsequent strong 40-50knots of
shear. No severe or strong storms are expected.

While the system will be fairly progressive, Pwats in the latest
CAMs denote elevated values to around 1.8-2 inches areawide with
warm cloud depths to 12,000ft agl. As rain turns more showery
towards the later afternoon and evening tomorrow, heavy downpours
will be possible. Rain should be beneficial with the recent dry
stretch and antecedent dry conditions through this summer, thus no
hydrological concerns are anticipated with this system.
Precipitation amounts will be highest across the St. Lawrence
Valley, higher terrain of the Adirondacks and spine of the Greens,
and near the International Border. Around three-quarters of an inch
to and inch of rain will be possible in the aforementioned
locations, with a quarter to half an inch most other locations;
lower amounts likely in southeastern Vermont, and in the central
Champlain Valley due to shadowing from the Adirondacks.

Temperatures Wednesday night will be mild in the mid 60s with
precipitation and humid conditions ongoing. Rain showers will taper
off towards sunrise Thursday morning, with slightly weakening winds.
Mid level moisture will linger into Thursday afternoon with mostly
cloudy skies, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will become
gusty once again Thursday afternoon with good vertical mixing
associated with a lagging low level jet, and drying low levels
behind the Wednesday system. Winds will gust between 20-30 MPH,
primarily in the channeled north to south valleys of the Vermont and
New York. Winds will trend weaker by late Thursday wind calmer
northwest cold advection by Friday. Temperatures will trend slightly
below seasonable levels Friday with highs in the mid 60s to near 70
with clear skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Deep layer ridging will slide over the region on
Saturday, supporting mainly sunny/cloud-free conditions after any
morning fog dissipates. The next low pressure system to affect us
with increasing winds and possible rain will follow on Sunday. There
is a weak signal for greater than normal instability in the St.
Lawrence Valley and sustained winds in the Champlain Valley as well
as much of northern Vermont. This signal is related to advection of
a relatively warm and moist air mass with moderately strong low
level southerly flow. The blend of models suggests greatest
probabilities of showers out ahead of a fast-approaching cold front
Sunday afternoon/evening and shifting eastward with time. The 12Z
global ensemble data shows large spread in timing; a multi-model
blend that is weighted most heavily in GEPS membership is
particularly favoring an earlier frontal passage, but we`ll keep an
eye on trends with regards to how the rain timing could affect
outdoor activities during the day.

Overall beneficial rain is possible but this does not look like a
big event given a relatively thing axis of deep moisture/westerly
flow aloft with this frontal passage. Pattern recognition suggests
showers will be short lived with locally heavy rainfall rates and
perhaps a rumble of thunder in western portions of northern New
York, but low total rainfall on a large scale/hydrological level.
The 24 hour rainfall probabilities of exceeding a half inch through
Monday morning are currently 5 to 15% in the much of Vermont and the
western Champlain Valley in New York, and 20 to 40% near the
northern Green Mountains and northernmost counties of the state and
the rest of northern New York. Following this system for early next
week it appears an active pattern with frontal passages and high
pressure alternating roughly day to day will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...A weak cold front has passed south of the
region with winds light trending northerly at less than 8 knots
through the next few hours.

Some lingering MVFR ceilings are present at MSS, MPV, and SLK,
which will trend VFR with a combination of scattering and
lifting of lowest ceilings as high pressure builds in. This area
of high pressure along with relatively high dew points will
support possible fog development, particularly at SLK and MPV.
Some increasing cloud cover overnight ahead of our next frontal
system to the west is anticipated, which makes the development
and duration of fog more uncertain than preferred. As such, have
only used BR primarily in the 06Z to 09Z period; the next TAF
issuance will need to reevaluate the chances for fog.

High pressure will shift to our east during the 09Z to 15Z
period, supporting an increase in southerly winds with gusts to
near 20 knots favored at PBG and BTV.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff