605
FXUS61 KBUF 110656
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
256 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe weather risk lowered today for much of western and north
central New York and across western New York Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and high humidity today and Friday.
Warmest heat index values reaching the mid 90s and allowing for
an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and high humidity today
and Friday. Warmest heat index values reaching the mid 90s and
allowing for an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

A mid level ridge will amplify over the lower Great Lakes and
Northeast through Friday. This will increase heat and humidity
across the region. 850 mb temperatures will climb to near +18/+19C
and the combination of heat and humidity will support heat index
values in the lower to mid 90s. Heat Advisories remain in place
today for portions of the Finger Lakes and the counties lining the
south shore of Lake Ontario, where confidence remains the highest
of heat indices reaching the mid 90s.

Similar conditions will be possible Friday, with heat headlines once
again a possibility for some areas. Confidence is a bit lower
as a faster arrival of a cold front may keep areas cooler.

Cooler and more comfortable weather are expected across the region
behind a cold front this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Friday evening.

A very moist airmass will remain in place today. Scattered
convection expected during the morning, with heavy downpours as the
primary impact. Impressive instability developing by afternoon will
lead to additional convection, mainly on lake breeze or convergence
boundaries inland from the lakes. However, amplifying ridging aloft
building in from the west maintaining relatively weak shear
profiles this afternoon, limiting severe potential.

A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region Friday. A very
warm, moist airmass will be in place ahead of an approaching cold
front. The combination of an increasing wind fields and a
unstable airmass will support the potential for strong/severe
thunderstorms with the primary risks being damaging winds and
large hail. Latest models have sped up timing of the arrival of
the cold front shifting the axis of greatest instability and
severe weather potential to the east. The faster arrival of the
front will greatly limit the severe threat across western New
York, with the higher risk of severe weather east of the Genesee
Valley during the afternoon and evening. Potential exists for
locally heavy rainfall, as PWAT values are expected to exceed
1.5", which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Drier air is expected to move into the region for the start of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very moist airmass will linger through the TAF period, with
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as well as lower
ceiling heights and or fog formation within the very moist
boundary layer. Fog formation is possible through 12Z. There
is low confidence that IFR or lower conditions develop at KBUF
and KART within a light southwest flow over the cool lake
waters.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning, will
increase in coverage through peak heating today. Given the very
moist atmosphere any shower or thunderstorm may contain heavy
downpours, lowering visibility for a brief time to IFR or lower.

Outlook...

Tonight through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms. Also, lower CIGS possible tonight across the
higher terrain.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance for a few
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest to west flow will remain through tonight. Wind speeds
likely remaining 15 knots or less with only the expectation of a
light chop with waves 2 feet or less.

The passage of several waves of low pressure will generate a few
thunderstorms with localized strong winds over the lakes at times
through Friday.

The passage of a cold front Friday could bring a brief uptick to
winds, but headlines are not anticipated. Drier air behind the cold
front will end the thunderstorm threat.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ001>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA