396
FXUS61 KBUF 060748
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
348 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry uneventful weather expected today through
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry uneventful weather expected today through
Tuesday.

A cool advection will continue with 850 mb temps getting down
around +9C. With lake temps still sitting around +22/+23C, this
will be enough to elicit a weak lake response. A NNE cross-lake
flow over Lake Ontario will produce some lake clouds south of
that lake, and with an added boost from upslope flow, there will
also be a few light lake enhanced showers...with the best
chances for these found across the Finger Lakes region through
early this morning.

Otherwise...surface high pressure over the upper Great Lakes builds
south into the lower Great Lakes region today and into Labor Day.
This will end any shower potential with dry weather expected through
Monday, and even through the day Tuesday.

We will also see a gradual warming trend as we work through the
first half of the upcoming week.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will potentially
arrive Wednesday as a low moves east across Ontario and Quebec
while sending its trailing cold front across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cool NNE flow will support at time low VFR to MVFR CIGS and even
some IFR-LIFR CIGS across the higher terrain, especially across the
higher terrain of the S. Tier. Given the cool airmass flowing across
the warm waters of the lake we will even see some lake driven
showers through the early morning hours. Also...river valley fog
will be possible across the S. Tier which may at times impact KJHW
through 12Z.

After sunrise, any lower ceilings and visibilities will improve as
diurnal influences take over with VFR resuming areawide through the
rest of the day.

Tonight...high pressure will settle in across the region with mainly
VFR across area terminals. River valley fog will again develop with
the potential for IFR-LIFR conditions across the S. Tier.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.
Localized flight restrictions possible.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NNE flow of 12-17 knots will be possible on Lake Ontario through
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient briefly tightens on
the southeastern periphery of the high as it builds toward the lower
lakes. Waves of 2-3 feet will be possible for the southcentral and
southeastern portions of Lake Ontario during this time.

High pressure settles over the lower Great Lakes for the first part
of the new work week, with mainly light winds and little to no wave
action through at least Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/JM