791
FXUS61 KBUF 240537
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Isolated rain showers may accompany the passage of a cold front
this Monday, especially across far-northern portions of North-
Central NY, including the Thousand Islands. Otherwise no major
changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather is expected the majority of the time through early
next week. However, a few rain showers may accompany the passage
of a cold front this Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather is expected the majority of the time
through early next week. However, a few rain showers may
accompany the passage of a cold front this Monday.

Aloft, a ridge continues to build from the western Great Lakes
and vicinity through tonight and then settles over the Northeast
United States and vicinity this Sunday through Sunday night. At
the surface, the ridge continues to affect our region as the
embedded high pressure center wobbles generally S`ward from
southern QC to the Mid-Atlantic states. Dry weather persists in
our CWA as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Sky
will be clear during most of the time period, but passing
cloudiness, primarily in the mid/upper-levels, is expected at
times as moist isentropic ascent precedes the axes of shortwave
troughs embedded in the primarily W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft,
especially before daybreak this morning and again Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. Lows should reach mainly the
mid 20`s to mid 30`s around daybreak this morning as clearing
sky, weak or calm surface winds, and low humidity promote
efficient radiational cooling. Highs should reach the mid 50`s
to lower 60`s late this afternoon as weak WAA begins to develop
along the western flank of the low-level ridge. Overnight lows
mainly in the mid 20`s to upper 30`s are forecast around
daybreak Sunday due to another round of efficient radiational
cooling. Warmer highs, mainly in the upper 50`s to upper 60`s,
are expected on Sunday and should be followed by overnight lows
mainly in the mid 30`s to upper 40`s around daybreak Monday as
the WAA regime strengthens somewhat along the western flank of
the low-level ridge.

On Monday, cyclonic W`erly to WNW`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave troughs are expected to impact our region. Variable
amounts of mainly mid/upper-level cloudiness are expected amidst
moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes. At
the surface, the aforementioned ridge will exit generally
SE`ward and be followed by the SE`ward passage of a weak cold
front during the late morning through early afternoon. A rather
dry low-level atmospheric column should permit a dry cold front
passage across most of our CWA. However, forcing for ascent
along the front may coincide with sufficient amounts of low-level
moisture to permit the development of isolated and light rain
showers across far-northern portions of Jefferson and Lewis
Counties, including the Thousand Islands. Behind the front,
another high pressure ridge builds from central Canada and
vicinity. Late afternoon highs should reach mainly the mid 50`s
to mid 60`s.

During Monday night through Tuesday, the surface ridge will
continue to affect our region as the embedded high pressure
center moves from northern ON toward southwestern QC, while the
ridge aloft builds from the Upper Midwest and eventually the
western and central Great Lakes. Dry weather is expected as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Low-level CAA
behind Monday`s cold front passage will contribute to lows
reaching mainly the lower 20`s to mid 30`s around daybreak
Tuesday and highs reaching the 40`s to 50`s late Tuesday
afternoon.

Note: Clear sky or sufficient cloud breaks and weak or calm
surface winds should contribute to localized steam fog in the
Black River Valley, Western Southern Tier river valleys, and the
lake valleys of the Finger Lakes Region during the predawn
hours through about 10 AM EDT today through Tuesday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions will continue through the 06Z TAF
period. Periods of mid and upper level cloud will continue to pass
over eastern portions of the region through the late night/early
morning hours, followed by mainly SKC conditions for today.

Otherwise, the only issue will continue to be the possibility for
late night/early morning river valley and inland lake fog that will
bring localized flight restrictions where it is able to form. With
mid and upper level decks possibly hanging on through a good chunk
of the early morning hours across eastern portions of the area, the
best possibility for any localized fog will be across the western
Southern Tier and upper Genesee valleys late tonight, persisting
through mid morning or so. Looking back at conditions yesterday
morning, KJHW saw flight restrictions for around 30 minutes. With
the very dry airmass and very similar conditions remaining in place,
other than a subtle wind shift to SE`erly through the early morning
hours, only brief impacts at worst are expected for KJHW again late
tonight into the first part of this morning.

Outlook...

Tonight through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. However, localized flight
restrictions will be possible each late night/early morning owed to
river valley and inland lake fog.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
eastern Great Lakes, as high pressure drifts south from eastern
Canada to New England through the weekend. A general NE/E flow
lowering to less than 12 knots tonight before a mainly offshore
flow develops this weekend. A weak front will cross the lower
Great Lakes Monday and allow for a brief period of onshore flow.
High pressure will return from the northeast Tuesday and allow
for an uptick in northeasterly flow.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...TMA