046
FXUS61 KBUF 180616
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
216 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms (3 of 5) covers the entire
forecast area today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to cause poor air quality
today.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this
evening, with numerous severe thunderstorms able to produce damaging
winds and locally heavy rain.

3) Gusty winds are expected northeast of Lake Erie this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to cause poor
air quality today.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires extends into western NY this morning.
A warm front will move across the region today, and smoke will lift
back northward. Based on the latest HRRR and REFS, surface smoke is
expected to improve across western NY late this morning through
afternoon, and by evening across north-central NY. Air Quality
Alerts remain in effect today.

Key Message 2...Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times
through this evening, with numerous severe thunderstorms able to
produce damaging winds and locally heavy rain.

WV imagery shows a potent shortwave trough digging into the Upper
Great Lakes region this morning. The trough will continue to dig
into the Lower Great Lakes region, with a surface low deepening as
it moves from Lake Superior to Quebec today. Isentropic lift and
moisture advection ahead of a warm front has led to showers across
the Lake Ontario region this morning. A few thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out in this activity. The warm front will move across the
region this morning. A tight moisture gradient and elevated
instability will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
across western NY, mainly staying south of I-90 through mid-morning.
The chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase east of
Lake Ontario with the warm front late this morning. There will be
some dry time across western NY mid/late morning.

The region will be get into the warm sector with dewpoints climbing
into the upper 60s to lower 70s today. The surface low will pass by
to the north while an associated cold front drops south across the
region late this afternoon through this evening. A favorable set-up
for severe weather is expected across the forecast area today. While
smoke will linger today, heating within a moist airmass will result
in destabilization. The wind field will strengthen ahead of the cold
front resulting in 30-40knots of 0-6km shear. A broken line of
storms is expected to form on a pre-frontal trough or differential
heating boundaries as early as noon, with a secondary line of
convection with the front between 2pm-8pm. Numerous severe
thunderstorms are expected today with damaging winds, locally heavy
rainfall, and an isolated tornado as the main threats. The SPC has
issued a Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms.

The threat for thunderstorms will come to an end behind the cold
front tonight. A few showers may linger into Sunday morning.

Key Message 3...Gusty winds are expected northeast of Lake Erie this
afternoon.

The pressure gradient ahead of the surface low and cold front will
tighten and southwest winds will increase across the region. A 30-40
knot low level jet will move overhead. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are
expected this afternoon, with the strongest wind gusts northeast of
Lake Erie. A few gusts of up to 40 mph area possible northeast of
Lake Erie. The timing of the strongest wind gusts outside of
thunderstorms is noon-4PM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Smoke and numerous thunderstorms will bring flight restrictions to
western and north-central NY through this evening.

A plume of smoke from Canadian wildfires extends into the Lake Erie
region this morning. The area of smoke will lift northward as winds
increase from the southwest today. Visibility is expected to fall to
MVFR in smoke, however a brief period of IFR can`t be ruled out.

An area of low pressure is expected to move north of the region
today. A warm front will lift northward and chances of showers and
thunderstorms will increase across western NY this morning. A brief
period of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible through late morning. A
southwest wind will increase across the region behind the warm front
today, and wind gusts of 25-35 knots are expected, with the highest
gusts northeast of Lake Erie.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of
a cold front this afternoon through this evening. Some storms may
become severe with strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. The timing
of the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
between 18-00z. Showers will linger across the Finger Lakes region
into the evening with MVFR conditions across the higher terrain
overnight. VFR conditions are expected across the lower elevations
tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Fair weather and VFR expected. Lingering smoke
possible.

Monday night and Tuesday...Restrictions likely in periodic showers
and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible with Lingering showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Smoke from Canadian wildfires will result in periods of reduced
visibility on the lower Great Lakes through Saturday.

A warm front will pass across the lower Great Lakes this morning
with south-southwest winds freshening to 15-20 knots. Waves will
build to 3 to 6 feet today.

A cold front will move across the region this afternoon with west
and northwest winds developing behind it, with small craft
conditions developing on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Small craft
conditions will come to an end of Lake Erie this evening, while
continuing on Lake Ontario through tonight. Thunderstorms chances
will increase starting this morning with the warm front. Additional
rounds of thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front moves
through.

High pressure builds in Sunday and persists through Monday with
winds and waves subsiding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM
         EDT Sunday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
         Sunday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/TMA