592
FXUS61 KBUF 291804
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
204 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably cool airmass for the end of August will allow for a
few more scattered showers east of Lake Ontario this afternoon and
southeast of Lake Ontario tonight. High pressure will then gradually
settle across the region through the long holiday weekend...bringing
dry weather and a warming trend that will last into the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of this writing...some widely scattered to scattered showers
still persist east of Lake Ontario...with dry weather and
considerable diurnal cumulus prevailing elsewhere. This general
theme will continue through much of the afternoon...with a few
additional showers remaining possible east of Lake Ontario as
another shortwave impulse rounds the base of the upper low over
Quebec.

As we push into this evening...the diurnally-driven cumulus and
showers east of Lake Ontario will fade with the loss of heating...
while some lake effect clouds and a few more lake effect showers
become possible southeast of Lake Ontario...in the vicinity of an
increasingly well-defined low level convergence zone. Elsewhere
conditions will be dry...with some valley fog also becoming possible
across the Southern Tier overnight with radiational cooling.
Speaking of which...our cool airmass will allow for lows to fall
into the 40s in most areas away from the immediate lakeshores
tonight...with interior portions of the Southern Tier and North
Country quite possibly even seeing some upper 30s.

On Saturday the upper level low will make its way east to New
England...while high pressure and drier air continues to build into
our region from the central Great Lakes. The latter will allow for
fair dry weather...with some airmass modification allowing for
somewhat warmer highs ranging from the lower 60s across the higher
terrain to the mid and upper 60s across most of the lower
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expansive high pressure will take up residence from the Great Lakes
to New England Saturday night through Tuesday, setting up a stretch
of dry weather to close out the last holiday weekend of summer.
Expect mostly sunny days Sunday through Tuesday with a day to day
warming trend. Highs in the 70s Sunday and Monday will push to near
80 for lower elevations by Tuesday as the airmass gradually
modifies. Nights will still be cool, and this will likely support
some river valley fog each late night and morning across the
Southern Tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through midweek as surface
high pressure gradually drifts off the east coast. Wednesday,
another strong trough will dig into the upper Midwest, with
downstream height falls beginning to spread east across the Great
Lakes. Some timing differences with this system begin to show in
deterministic and ensemble guidance, with just a low chance of a few
showers arriving by late in the day across Western NY. It will still
be quite warm, with highs around 80 for lower elevations.

The pattern remains progressive and amplifies significantly across
North America late next week, with a strong ridge over the Rockies
and a deep longwave trough carving out across the Great Lakes. Large
scale forcing ahead of the trough and associated cold front may
phase with an additional southern stream shortwave rounding the base
of the trough to support a period of widespread rain potential
Thursday, followed by a few more showers Friday. It will turn
notably cooler again behind the cold front by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
General VFR conditions (under considerable amounts of diurnal
cumulus) will prevail this afternoon...with a few more widely
scattered to scattered showers east of Lake Ontario.

As we push into this evening...the diurnally-driven cumulus and
showers east of Lake Ontario will fade with the loss of heating...
while some lower VFR/MVFR clouds and a few more lake effect showers
become possible southeast of Lake Ontario. With the clearing skies
and nocturnal cooling some patchy IFR/MVFR fog may also develop
within the Southern Tier valleys. Otherwise...flight conditions will
be VFR.

On Saturday...high pressure and drier air will continue to build
into our region from the central Great Lakes. Once any early morning
lake clouds and Southern Tier valley fog mix out in the morning...
this will provide us with widespread VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river
valley fog each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
Modest to moderate northwesterlies through tonight will turn more
westerly during Saturday...when winds will become moderately brisk
on Lake Ontario. Expect moderately choppy conditions on Lake Ontario
through tonight to become quite choppy across the eastern half of
that lake on Saturday...though at this point winds and waves appear
to remain a little below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Additionally...a few passing showers will remain possible across
eastern portions of Lake Ontario through tonight...with these
capable of producing waterspouts.

High pressure will then settle across the Lower Great Lakes through
the rest of the long holiday weekend while bringing a return to
lighter winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR