Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
264 FXUS61 KBUF 291840 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 240 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer weather is expected through mid-week, followed by a cold front that will bring an increasing chance of showers Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer weather is expected through mid-week, followed by a cold front that will bring an increasing chance of showers Thursday through Friday. The coastal low off the southern New England coast will exit into the northern Atlantic tonight. An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes region through tonight. The mid-level ridge axis will move east of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave trough and cold front approach from the northwest. Lingering low-level moisture from the coastal low will maintain partly cloudy conditions through this evening. Patchy fog is anticipated across the higher terrain. Mid to high level clouds will spread across the region Wednesday. Temperatures will rise well above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s. A warm front will lift across the region Thursday morning. Isentropic lift and modest moisture may result in a brief window of scattered showers across western NY Thursday morning, and across north-central NY Thursday afternoon. Temperatures at 850mb will rise to +16C behind the front. Cloud cover from the upstream trough and cold front may limit the full potential for surface heating, however it will still be warmer than normal with high temperatures in the mid 70s. A 30-40knot low level jet will reside across the region Thursday, and southwest flow will result in breezy conditions downwind of the Lakes. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible, with weaker winds elsewhere. A stronger trough will dig into the Upper Great Lakes region Thursday night and aide in pushing the shortwave trough and cold front through the eastern Great Lakes region. A ribbon of vorticity, deep moisture, and low-level convergence will support showers Friday. There still remains uncertainty in the amount of rainfall late Thursday night through Friday, however the flood threat is near-zero. Cold air advection will occur immediately behind the cold front Friday through Friday night. Surface high pressure will move across the region through Saturday and mostly dry weather is expected. Temperatures will return to near normal values. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For the 18Z TAFS widespread MVFR or low end VFR ceiling heights are found across the TAF region, this on a light northerly upslope flow around the periphery of a departing area of low pressure, and incoming surface high. This surface high will bring a period of drier air that will improve ceiling heights back to VFR by this evening, but with a continued wealth of moisture in the lower levels areas of fog are again likely to form, impacting the higher terrain (KJHW) and possible KART overnight. Fog will dissipate just past sunrise on a now light southerly flow. While VFR flight conditions will prevail through Wednesday, there will be an increase in mid and high level clouds through the day. Outlook... Wednesday night...mainly VFR, but briefly MVFR with a chance for a few showers to the west, with these showers moving to across the North Country Thursday morning. Thursday...becoming Mainly VFR. Thursday night and Friday...VFR to IFR with showers. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will build across the lower Great lakes today with a light northerly wind flow. Winds will become southerly tonight ahead of the next surface trough, with wind speeds increasing to around 10 knots by Wednesday. Winds will increase further on Thursday ahead of a cold front with a SSW flow around 15 knots. There is a growing confidence that small craft conditions may be met Thursday on eastern end of Lake Erie and the Upper Niagara River. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...HSK/TMA