496
FXUS61 KBUF 142334
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
734 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor edits made with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Valley fog is possible tonight.

2) The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms
increases Saturday night into Sunday. Shower chances then linger
through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Valley fog is possible tonight.

Surface high pressure centered over the central Great
Lakes will support rather dry condition to persist across WNY
through Saturday. Additionally, ample radiational cooling from clear
skies under the high tonight will support valley fog across the
Southern Tier, the Finger Lakes, the Black River and across areas
southeast of Lake Ontario.

Key Message 2...The potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms increases Saturday night into Sunday. Shower chances
then linger through Monday.

Upper level ridging currently across the Upper Great Lakes will work
its way east this weekend, allowing for zonal flow and embedded
shortwave troughs to pass across the eastern Great Lakes by late
Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, a warm front will work its way
eastward across the Great Lakes reaching WNY Saturday night. Warm
moist isentropic lift will support scattered showers to pass
eastward across the area Saturday night into Sunday. In addition to
the showers, some rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out as there
will be enough elevated instability.

Additional shortwave troughs will pass overhead Sunday and Sunday
night, supporting the cold front associated with the low supporting
the aforementioned warm front to pass across the region. Along and
ahead of the cold frontal passage, expect additional showers and
thunderstorms. While conditions will be favorable for a few storms
to become severe given moderate instability and moderate to strong
deep-layer bulk shear, severe storm development will be contingent
on a few factors, the biggest one being the degree of diurnal
destabilization of the warm sector.

While a ridge will build back into the area Monday, temperatures
aloft will cool to around 10C. This combined with the 24C lake
waters along with lingering synoptic moisture may support a few lake
effect rain showers to develop southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue through the evening.
Generally light flow and efficient radiation cooling tonight will
allow for patchy fog development headed into early Saturday morning.
KJHW is the most likely to see reduced visibility, but latest HREF
guidance does show ~40% chance of MVFR conditions at KROC and KART
mainly from 7-11z. Conditions will gradually improve with clearing
skies through Saturday morning.

Widespread VFR conditions are expected Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Periodic showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected.

Monday...Isolated rain showers with MVFR possible.

Monday Night through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR expected.
However, valley fog possible Monday night through about daybreak.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR during the day with showers and storms
returning in the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Overall, light winds over the lakes today with high pressure
building across the lower Great Lakes region keeping waves 2 feet or
less. Winds will transition from northerly to easterly during the
overnight period headed into Saturday. As high pressure continues to
slide eastward, pressure gradients will increase Saturday evening
ahead of the next frontal passage with showers and storms into
Sunday. Gusty winds and larger waves may be possible in the vicinity
of storms. High pressure will build back into the region early next
week that will calm winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/HSK
AVIATION...Brothers/HSK
MARINE...Brothers