241
FXUS61 KBUF 120643
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
243 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Higher confidence for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few
severe storms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather expected through midday, then scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Dry weather expected through midday, then scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening.

High pressure over the area will keep dry weather intact through
midday, with any patchy fog dissipating by mid morning.

High pressure will shift east later this morning making way for the
next fast-moving wave in the persistent northwesterly flow regime to
move through our area, bringing the next round of scattered showers
and storms this afternoon and evening. The change with this update
will be a better chance for a few strong to severe storms, mainly
owed to higher levels of instability expected this
afternoon/evening, with CAPE values now forecast to be in the
1000-1200 J/kg range and 0-6km shear remaining around 30-35
knots...all combined with favorable timing of the mid level
shortwave crossing our area. Overall moisture will also get a
modest boost with this shortwave trough, as PWAT values climb
back into the 1.3" to 1.5" range. Though not excessively high,
this will allow for the possibility of heavy rain to accompany
any stronger storms, however a progressive storm movement should
mitigate any localized flash flooding concerns. Putting this
all together, does now appear there may be at least some threat
for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Main
threat will be strong to damaging winds, with a lesser threat of
hail. Areas with the best potential for seeing a few strong to
severe storms will be from the Finger Lakes region westward
where the better instability will develop, and thus the SPC now
has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across
these areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS fog across the Southern Tier has reached KJHW and
this fog is expected to persist through 13-14Z. Some patches of fog
are also possible near KART. Otherwise dry through midday with
a frontal boundary just to our south.

A shortwave trough will bring this frontal boundary to our south
back northward later today, while also serving as a trigger for
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and
evening hours. Any thunderstorm may bring localized, brief IFR
flight conditions and gusty surface winds. This activity will
diminish through the evening hours with the loss of daytime
instability and with the earlier passage of the shortwave
trough.

Behind the shortwave another period of IFR flight conditions will be
possible for the western Southern Tier (KJHW)later tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...Local IFR in valley fog across the Southern Tier early,
otherwise mainly VFR with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
An overall weak pressure gradient is expected to remain in place
through the remainder of the work week, with no more than mainly
light to gentle breezes expected, although a modest uptick in
northerly flow later Thursday night into Friday may bring some light
to moderate chop across Lake Ontario.

There will be the chance for scattered showers and storms this
afternoon and evening, a few of which may produce strong winds and
locally higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM/Thomas
MARINE...JM